[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwkpfSMOyXU 450 300]

A Fistful of Awesome!

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Yep, I went and did it again today.   I didn’t like the pin action in the price of gold, not to mention the dollar, and so hedged most of my major positions, including SLW, ANV, EGO and RGLD, with short calls, just slightly in the money, one month out (Novembers). 

I also trimmed my AGQ once again, selling another 400 shares at $104+.  I now have only a measly 400 shares left from my original 3,000.   We are retardedly over the 200 day moving average in silver, which just refuses to stand down, but AGQ will be a hard break when it does finally succumb to gravity, I’d contend.  

The good I see ahead is in the precious metals, big surprise, no?   That’s why I’m only shorting calls, rather than selling big chunks, though I did sell 30% of EXK yesterday, instead of selling the calls.   At prices below $5, however, and really even below $10, I see there being little difference in the price of a call, and the price of a stock, so I just sell the underlying to a point where I’m comfortable holding through the storm, and then I just hang on.

The bad I saw today, was in the bank stocks.  I thought at first that this mortgage gig was a smokescreen, readied by The Powers That Are  to scare some valuations down for coming bank M&A’s.   That thesis may still be correuct, but I was given pause by the action of the bank index ($BKX) today.   Observe:

 After all this hooplah since early September, you’d think the financials would have something better to show us than the above, no?   And yet, it’s looking bad for now.   I shall revisit my “possible takeover” thesis later in the year, as I still believe there’s a strong percentage still in betting on a flurry of acquisitions coming off at the end of this year.

In the meantime, I dumped the last of my BBT, FITB and even JPM.   I may buy back one of those after this storm has passed here, but for now, cash is better than banks.

The ugly is none other than the mighty U.S. dollar, which seemed to get it’s bounce today, off the $76.40 low area and is now almost 30 cent higher at $76.70.   

This bounce should give you an opportunity to consolidate some positions, and perhaps enter others.  I have my eye on more GSS, which is one of the few gold and silver plays that is not yet overbought.  But be ready to pounce with all alacrity on the whole universe, as this pullback may be short lived.

Or, not lived at all. 

My best to you.

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It Burns! It Burns!

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Let me first apologize for my inability to post last night. It’s a long story, but let’s just say it involved egregious, home-wrecking (figuratively and literally) home repair arcana which prevented me– via “boy in the bubble” -style plastic sheathing– from reaching my home laptop without risking catastrophic ruin to both home and marriage.

Luckily, I’ve ingeniously derived a path to said electronic tools, and even  — bonus! — unto my very wine cellar.   Alas and alack, all my wine glasses are also encased, Young John Travolta-style, behind aforesaid egregious plastic bubble.  They mock me, even now, in light-hearted crystalline tones.   Resulting situation?  I may go “Mayberry Otis” on a bottle of 2005 Mondavi right here, right now.  

Tell no one.

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Where was I?  Oh yes, the banks.   Boy didn’t it seem like last week was the begining of the sequel to late 2008’s monster hit– Bear Stearns/Lehman II, Electric Bugaloo?   But let’s get serious — when was the last time quantitive easing was bad for banks?  Well, it’s certainly not bad for banks that have crapola bonds on their balance sheets when the ECB and Fed are acting like willing buyers in the market place.   Get on the QE II Cruise Liner, people.

For stabilisation (sic) purposes only, please. 

No folks, they are not going to let those banks die again.  “They” are stupid, and “they” are short sighted, but they are not going to make the same mistake twice.   Not in a … what? (Cups hand to ear)… Go ahead, say it with me… Not in a whaaat?

NOT IN A FREAKING ELECTION YEAR, Baby!

Come, come– I know you are desperate for some serious chart action.  You cry out for confirmation of my biases, and I will not disappoint.   Slake thy thirst on this weekly of the $BKX (the Philadelphia Bank Index):

Four out of five weeks down, sure, but where has our price found purchase, and even (dare I say it?) a phat DOJI?  That’s right, at the same 34-week EMA that’s served as mother’s comfort lo these last eleven months. 

And those were “recovery months,” which I don’t think will be fully completed until we test that 200 week EMA up there (in red) which, by golly, sure looks like it wants to at least decrease its slope, if not stop descending altogether.  Ain’t that a thing? 

Now lookee see, here, I’ve got another juicy and nutritious daily chart for you, and yes, it’s the $BKX again. 

No, it’s not pretty but in this case, it’s the 200–day EMA that’s serving as support as well as that significant support line (we’ve used it before) at just over $49.00.   I think the printing presses are winning this one, son, and they are not going to let those banks go down without a much more serious fight than we saw last week with the Greco-Spaniard panic attack. 

So prepare ye for more clack-clack-clacking that will lead to much ack-ack-ACKing.   

This market may very well be setting up for a great fall (perhaps, in the Fall?), but I think the powers that “try to be” will continue to stuff those banks so full of banque notes and letters of exchequer that you won’t be able to address the tellers for the interchange of proper monies. 

They fight the last war, that’s what they do well.   Look not ye, then, unto the burning FAZ -mobile!  And whilst ye may not wish to grab polar opposite FAS, I continue to think BBT and FITB are decent holds in this environment.

And lest we forget,  continue to look to the PM sector as your hedge to this egregiousity, as always.   

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfINBYmGD1A 450 300]

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I don’t often talk about the University of Kentucky on this site, being a “mostly” Louisville Cardinals fan (and they don’t like it much around here when you’re “both.”  You might as like to try to “borry” from a man’s still instead).   However, UK freshman, SEC “Player of the Year,” “Newcomer of the Year,” and quite possibly #1 NBA draft pick John Wall makes for a nice metaphor for today’s dollar discussion.

Wall, while deified in the Blue Grass for his eye-popping offensive talents, is going to be the number one (or #2, his teammate DeMarcus Cousins may go #1) draft pick because of his defensive capabilities, which are sometimes similarly eye-popping.   It’s arguable, for instance, that he beat Vanderbilt at Vanderbilt all by himself with a last second shot block on a dead-eye three-point shooter, followed by a clean pick of the ball right from said startled shooter’s hands.  

What’s that?  Of course Youtube has the clip!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZzXhhd6CRA 450 300]

Pretty spiffy, no?   You don’t see that kind of instinctive defensive thinking in a lot of freshman.

And that kind of defensive, er… “wall” brings to mind our old weekly dollar chart and the “fib wall” we’d identified as going to be a tough area to breach.   It turns out, the 200-week exponential moving average (“EMA”) served as a barrier as well.   Look at the slow topping we’ve seen here, keeping in mind this is a weekly chart:

I think this bodes well, at least in the near term, for our commodities “risk trade,” and especially the precious metals, which are perking up quite nicely this morning as the dollar (DXY) drops below $80.00.    [[AGQ]] is taking all it’s friends out for a champagne party, and purchasing them Norma Kamali handbags.   Fellow silvers [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and even rag-tag Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] are also again off to the races.  As always, the best name in silver is Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .  On the gold side, you know my favourites (sic) but NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] is really picking up steam as it matures here.

Keep an eye as well on our dollar proxy [[UUP]] , which we’d like to see stay below $23.60 for our shiny metal dominance to continue.

On top of our usual metal trades, it seems that the regional banks [[KRE]] are also back on thier horses.  You know I love BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] as a long term hold, but don’t be afraid to grab a little Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] here as these “Ohio chancres” will someday soon be able to cover up their cold sores and sashay out into the bank M&A saloons once again, all a-flooze.

Last, don’t forget about Elite Eight  pick Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] which is still getting its wind back (thankfully, so is SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] ) and it’s sister Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] , which has really been gaining some nice ground recently.   I like both as hedges against future “Inflato-rama Drama.”

My best to you all.

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Krull Leaves the Poker Game for a Quick Smoke Break
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Up 3% yesterday, even with all my hedges still in place, I must bow to the volcanic power of the precious metal rebound we experienced yesterday.

That doesn’t mean I’m abandoning my post on the 12th slippery rung of the main municipal sewer — the cosy seat next to the extrusion pipe but before the extrusion weld.   No, I’m still expecting a pullback today from yesterday’s Ode to Joy/Bunny Rabbit Massacre, unbounded. 

But the dollar (seen on the intraday as [[UUP]] or DXY) still continues to fall off here, and I’m wondering if we will ever get back up to that $80.10 or so pivot (on DXY)  I’d talked about as a trigger for another downturn last week.    I won’t be surprised, however, if we get another exogenous shock out of Davos, the PIIG’s or even President Obama’s recently unveiled near $4 trillion FrankenBudget. 

For now, I’m liking what works on the rebound, and thus far, it’s the fast movers of the junior golds like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and “the X-factor” — Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] .   I also like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] of course, and Lindsay made a nice rec yesterday on the nicely pivoting Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] .

Of course silver is my true Tsar Bomba play in 2010, as it has been lagging the 2009 move in gold, along with platinum [[PTM]] , Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and palladium [[PAL]] .   Right now, in this first updraft, I like the double silver play [[AGQ]] a whole lot, and of course my core group of miners — in order — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , [[SVM]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and the lowly Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

All of these should be gnawed at opportunistically, as one would a bread wheel from the boulangerie, deep under the steam pipes of Manhattan.

I am still not taking down my hedges (in  [[SPY]] puts and [[QID]] and [[BZG]] ), and will happily bleed money on them here, as that insurance policy has served me well these last weeks.   Nothing could please me more than taking them down at lower balances, however, as that would mean all of my other plays are working well, as they did yesterday.

Don’t forget about the banks, here, as they’ve never really suffered much of a pullback, even in last week’s deluge.  Today, they seem to be leading the red dogs, which may turn out to be an opportunity for you.   Again, I like BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] for the longer term hold, Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] for the Ohio pop, and Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] for the lotto play (stay small and remember, it’s only a game).

Best to you all, First Amendment scholars.

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Busy, Busy, Busy.   Yeah, you got nothing today, but I threw some calls down in The PPT, because theys mah peoples, and theys payin’ the bills.  So sorry.

I bot some  more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls — 40 more June $11’s at $4.30.   That brings my tote up to 160 in that class.   Yeah, there might be some more pain in this name, and in my other precious plays, but you know what?

I’m not going to get overly concerned. 

 I’m shrugging off this “Volker scare.”

I say here for you — it’s bullshit.   Rhetoric.  Albumen.

   I knew we’d have some sell-off and the PM’s were way ahead of the rest of the market in this cycle decline, which means that they will likely be done before the rest is too.

I’ve been adding tons here on Friday and today, and as I mentioned I was actually up at Friday’s close.    Not so much today, but that’s only because my hedges “gave back” some of Friday’s wins.    Those are the kind of losses I can accept.  I consider that the equivalent of paying off Sal & Tony for “protection.”    If we go bull green from here, I’ll be happier than Harpo at the Thai Masseuse convention, and I’ll sell those hedges at a loss, if necessary.

But now, they stay, even as a I load up on 4k more [[EXK]] at $3.45.    2k more IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] at an unfortunate $14.31 (again, I’m not worried), and 400 more Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] at $44.52.

Between today and Friday, I’ve been loading up on PM’s and banks.   I didn’t add any banks today, but I think I may take a third swipe at Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] and BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] .   One other playah that I bot last week is Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] .  I may add this one as well tomorrow.

I may  look at coming out of my final [[GDX]] and [[SPY]] hedges tomorrow as well, as they are option hedges.   My only other remaining hedges besides those are [[QID]] and [[BGZ]] , which I will likely hold until I’m sure we’ve turned back to the green.

Make no mistake, I’m extremely bullish on the continuing inflation trade here.  Bernanke will remain, and so too will the continuing flog of the dollar.   Play that game by buying select equities and precious metal bangers.

Bless you all, and I mean that.

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