From time to time I’m going to bring up holdings that I consider “core” to the Jacksonian Survival Strategy (TM). These positions, I hope, will be your ports in the storm for the coming (continuing?) rough seas.
TBT is the Ultra-Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF , described by its sponsor, Proshares, as:
… seek(ing) daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
One of the basic theses of my Jacksonian analysis is that the Federal Reserve and its supervisory Congresses will eventually destroy the functional markets they’re charged to protect by repeatedly choosing the politically easy route over that of longer term system-wide financial integrity. Consider that the last truly “hard choice” taken by the Fed was back in the early eighties when Chairman Paul Volcker brought the Fed Funds rate to 20% in the summer of 1981 — which in itself was a hail Mary pass to stave off economy-crushing inflation rates.
The subsequent combination of a “cured” inflation problem, expansionary fiscal policy (read: increasing debt), lowered marginal tax rates, subdued energy prices and — most important– the financial peaking of the largest demographic bubble in this country’s history ignited a 17- year “boom” that culminated in the 2000 market crash and subsequent recession.
In the meantime, the Fed’s answer to any economic trouble remains “continue easing via lower rates.” Unfortunately, the conditions that allowed that solution to work from 1983-2007 (yes, they even worked after the dot-com meltdown), have begun to fall away, as the prosperity cycle gives way to the demographic shift of retiring baby boomers with fewer workers filling in behind them to support increasing government expenditures, not to mention debt service.
Combine that demographic turnover with the results of 22 years of moral hazard (Greenspan’s first “money flood” was a response to the 1987 crash), and we have a recipe for a turn in this aging two and half decade bull in US Treasury paper. Note the following chart (which — my apologies– I could only get Stockcharts to show from 1990) of the 20-year US Treasury Yield:
As you can see, we just had a break of the long term downtrending channel in November of ’08, which coincided with the gigantic selloff in the stock market as money fled to a safe haven. Could this huge breakdown and rebound mark the bottom of our bond bull? You can see that we’re back in the channel again, and have already tested the lower boundary on the monthly chart. As well, we’ve got a Democrat Congress and POTUS, just as we did back in 1993 (see first box), and the Chinese are making noise about buying less U.S. paper and letting the yuan rise (finally) against the dollar. Last, we need to issue more debt in order to pay for this unprecedented “stimulus” spending recently signed into law.
If anything, this bodes well for bond bears in the short term, despite our current “safety haven” status. Let’s see what TLT (Lehman Bros. 20+Year Treasury i-Shares ETF) is telling us:
Note how TLT soared as a result of the first fear induced drop in the stock market? Now notice how it made no such similar move when the market ground down to a lower low? In fact, after a month of increases after the November 21st market lows, TLT peaked on the day after Christmas, and has largely ground lower ever since. This despite a new low on the stock markets. Whether or not the US long bond has been given up as a safe haven we won’t know until we see a decisive break of that fast-approaching 200-day EMA, but I think TLT is telling us something here.
That brings us up to TLT’s double inverse, TBT:
Note the steady accumulation since late December of ’08, even as the MACD took it’s sweet time to eventually turn north again? Now all of our oscillators are telling us similar story. I see TBT as a core holding for the long term here– and I’ve been accumulating it from $50 all the way down to the $37’s — but for our more short term oriented folks, I believe that a break of the above noted “congestion area” will bring us very quickly to the 200-day EMA. This lift-off may even be in conjunction with the rest of the market, as low yields are abandoned for stock market lucre (however fleetingly). We should be watching the TLT 200-day EMA here and our congestion zones. In the meantime, I see TBT as an “accumulation pick” going forward, keeping in mind the usual precautions we should always employ while holding volatile double ETF’s.
More “ports in the storm” to come. Best to you all.
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Nice
Thanks… now, howabout hooking me up to the recent comment feed? 😉
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Good Stuff!
Anyone else having trouble expanding those charts?
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No can do chart expansion.
Andrew Jackson ?
Juice – take that foil hat off – it’s starting to rust your brain!
Shit, I wasn’t having any trouble expanding them on the Peeg.
My apologies, I’ll have to get with Vincenzo to explain to me some of the basics on the proper chart sizing…
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Bruce — err… no.
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Wow, I see Jake Gint, a truly worthy man, has taken his rightful place at the side of the Fly on the bloggers tab!
Nice, except for the charts. It’s really good to see a bit of longer term thinking around here.
Congratulations on the tab.
One *huge* caveat with using TBT. Since it is an ultrashort, you have the inherent mathematical retardedness that could lead to an underperformance relative to just shorting the underlying, especially over any long period of time. You can see that sort of down-syndromesque price action in both FAZ and FAS. Since TLT is a little more tame and low-beta, TBT will only slightly exhibit it’s genetic malformities.
So I’d actually suggest working with TLT puts if you want to go for leverage. I like selling the Jan 10 88/87 strangle if you can get filled, or you can work on some LEAP calendar spreads.
Nice start Jack
Since TLT is a little more tame and low-beta, TBT will only slightly exhibit it’s genetic malformities.
True, that’s really the only reason I dare to call it a “core.” It’s volatile, but not like SKF or some of the other double shorts. I think the potential reward — with appropriate stops in place– outweighs the risk in this case.
So I’d actually suggest working with TLT puts if you want to go for leverage. I like selling the Jan 10 88/87 strangle if you can get filled, or you can work on some LEAP calendar spreads.
A fine suggestion as well. Some people can’t stand dealing with options, and then there’s the downside decay problem as well. One nice thing about the options is that you can sell shorter term puts against them to harvest some cash. That might not be such a bad strategy in this lower volatility play, even as the prices will not be as rich due to the decreased volatility.
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Yogi — I will work with Vincenzo to get the chart problem straightend out. I think it’s just a question of my familiarity w. WordPress.
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Welcome aboard!!
I look forward to further commentary on the fleecing of the people by the central bankers of the world. The revolution starts with education and school is now in session.
You’re off to a good start Jake. Looking forward to some “right”-minded commentary.
Hey Jake, when did u get a tab? I know there was some kind of competition going on- totally missed it. this is awesome, and long overdue. I want to tell you “welcome” but you’ve kind of already had your own tab all this time… the comments section. Looking forward to your posts bro.
Thanks Gio, man… good to have you back!
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Excellent analysis. Have held TBT for some time and best not to watch it too closely as it resembles a pot of water anxious to have boiled. Set it and forget it is my strategy w/TBT along w/other core holdings including PM miners, water, ag holdings etc. The question ultimately is the timing of the collapse and that can be anywhere from tomorrow to several years from now depending upon the assfuckery of the fed and other banks, governments etc.
Thanks Mack.
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Let’s see if this Chart works…
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All — let me know if stockcharts shows the above as annotated, or if just the generic version. I can see it “annotated” but then, it’s my chart.
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Yes – it’s annotated… BUT it also gives your personal
info, login & password.
^
Not really. Just effin with you
Jake,
these charts cannot be expanded.
Help?
Anon, I am working on it w. Jeremy…
here’s the charts in their original form:
Long term 20+ year Treasury chart
TLT Daily Chart from above
TBT Chart from above
Jake posting charts in a wordpress blog for dummies.
1. Make your chart purty.
2. Use snippet tool (or screen capture tool of your choice, but snippet works very well) to cut out the chart.
3. Save chart on your harddrive as a .png (very important as .jpegs do not re-size correctly).
4. Open up WordPress blog, click on media icon. Browse to find your chart. Upload chart. Use default blog settings. Insert chart into post.
Voila!!!
P.S., if your blog is configured like the rest, you will have a image resizer plugin which takes care of the resizing stuff.
I’m sure my IQ will gain at least 10 pts after reading your daily posts for the next few months.
Jake, saw your announcement on Twitter…congrats! You deserve it. You are one nice guy that I always liked and I always followed your comments.
Good luck with your new blog.
Lady Guenevere
Shed- I did all those first steps (how else do you think I got the charts there in the first place?), but am not familiar with the resizing doo-hickey.
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Late to the party, but Congrats on becoming “made” on IBC.
Thanks very much, Lady G!
JC- Who’re you kidding? If your IQ went up another 10 points, you’d be able to melt brass objects with the power of your mind alone.
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TC, how does that old golf saying go
Shoot 90 watch your golf
Shoot 80 watch your business
Jake, selfishly I hope we get you full-time around here. Nice work.
“Best to you all”
What the Hell…are you a full blown biscuit n gravy guy oveh heah now
With your addition, this site is just about “full service”. Something for everyone.
Really looking forward to reading your market perspective.
Jake likes men.
I’m being serious. I’ll be fundamentally smart as shit after reading your posts.
love your style….what’s the deal with the golds/silver youre adding to?
What’s your “6 month ish” thinking via crude and gold now versus the dollar and inflation?
And why RGLD versus say, AUY, or GG?
You seem to mirror Jimmy Rogers thinking re his recent bloviation in barrons…thanks!
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