Of the original 77 picks for 1/4/2010:
20 are still open (26%).
56 were closed with gains (72.7%).
1 was closed for a loss of -0.19%.
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Hi Woodshedder, looks like an interesting system.
Could you tell me your process for managing money – do you do this primarily in an IRA to defer taxes for these short term trades, and what broker do you and the Fly use? This may sound unusual, but I use Etrade and Wellsfargo and Wells only allows limit orders on the downside or upside but not both (difficult to manage volatility to lock in profit and protect risk simultaneously).
Thanks
I use Tradestation and Interactive Brokers. I don’t worry much about taxes except to hope that I have to pay a lot of them!
I do trade an IRA account, but I use a very simple moving average system in it- see Mebane Faber’s Tactiical Asset Allocation model for more info on that.
You should worry equally about commissions as you are about taxes.
Wood,
few questions –
1. did you try applying DVO or DV2 indicators on your PDS how does it improve or change statistics.
2. I am not trading stocks currently, But just curios how you enter order and also place a stop order after the order is executed. I say this bcoz you can enter a limit order and go to work, but when do you place the stop order.
thanks
Bill
Have not tried DVO or DV2. They are measuring/calculating different things from what I want for the PDS.
Most quality brokerages allow for bracketing of orders, meaning as soon as the parent order is filled, the child order (in this case the stop) is set based upon your pre-determined parameters.
Both Tradestation and Interactive Brokers allows this.
Wood et al,
Do you recall the moving average system which was like the 10, 20 crossover?
I can’t remember which it was, neither if it was EMA or SMA, daily, monthly or weekly
It might of been something like 13, 34 but I don’t think so.
I am familiar with Mebane Fabers “above the 10day SMA” but I believe the one I am searching for was “better”.
Thanks
I use Faber’s popular 10 month SMA. While there are countless other MA systems, I prefer this one for the IRA.
edit: that is “above the 10month SMA”
Wow, impressive, Senor Wood.
Hey All,
For about six months now, I’ve been surfin’ IBC. I was definitely intrigued after a few visits, and last month, early Dec., I decided to take the plunge and see what the PPT is all about, pony up the 50$ bucks for a month and see what its like on the inside. Considering IBC in all it’s glory is free, I was stoked to see what the PPT had to offer. In summary the PPT has paid for itself many times over. I figured, I’ll be on holiday from University for a while, plenty of time to trade how I like to. Along with my new PPT subscription, I decided to educated my self in another way over the holidays. Read the classic investing bible that started it all, “The Intelligent Investor,” Benjamin Graham. Although severely dated, the examples, the history, and the wisdom is unarguably valuable knowledge. Coincidently around this time, the PDS was unveiled. Let me also mention another book that helped inspire me to write this post, “The (Mis)Behavior of Markets,” by Mandelbrot and Hudson. Both of the acclaimed and rigorously constructed books claim at numerous times that system trading does not work in the long run. That time may vary significantly, but to see the IBC and its members (many of which I really do respect, from what I’ve read) attempting to profit from such a system is to me regrettable. Systems trading is proven to not beat the market in the long run. The market is too chaotic, humans are too unpredictable, and the “Trading Systems” are too simple. Yes, systems can be modified over time ect, but over anything longer than a couple of years, “Systems Trading” schemes shrivel away, proven the markets inherent lesser. Regardless of IBC’s moral standing on selling what is statistically proven to be a bunk trading strategy, from a business model stand point, is the potential risk of backing such a system, putting the PDS and the PPT/IBC side by side worth the downside risk? In my humble opinion, I’m rather surprised at IBC’s move here. And although I’m only one small Piker, I plan to stay away from the PDS, its like playing at a casino…. the rules are fixed for a reason, think about it. As for PPT/IBC… its kinda love hate now I guess… like finding out your trusted friends just got back from a scientology retreat, glowing with answers… Markets masticate certainty and your funds/IRA. Beware!
Luke
Luke, thanks for your feedback. While I take some time to gather my links and resources to answer your assertions, perhaps you could do the same by providing me the following:
1. Page numbers where Mandelbrot “claims at numerous times that system trading does not work in the long run.” I could then pull my copy off the shelf (one of my favorite books) and read it for myself.
2. The research that states, “Systems trading is proven to not beat the market in the long run.”
3. The particular trading systems you reference when you state, “Trading Systems” are too simple.”
4. The particular trading systems you reference when you state, “but over anything longer than a couple of years, “Systems Trading” schemes shrivel away…”
5. The particular statistics, or preferably the research you reference when you wrote, “what is statistically proven to be a bunk trading strategy…” as well as the name/specifics of the strategy that is “bunk.”
Thanks in advance. I think my readers will benefit immensely from our discussion.
Good shit Wood – glad to see The Fly put your stuff up in Premium, the Power Dip definitely deserves it!!
Thanks Z!
Awesome work Woodshedder – I need to sign up… Any package discounts that you are aware of for PDS and PPT ordered together?
Must be a typo (although unlikely as it looks like a screen capture), but your one loser appears earlier on the list as a winner as well (CCO). So maybe you are batting a thousand!
Andy
Thanks Andy.
Current PPT subscribers are eligible to receive a one-time 10% rebate on annual subscriptions to The Power Dip System.
The CCO trade is not a typo. It made the entry list on more than one day, but both open trades were closed on the same day.