The market continues to soften, which means more dip-buying opportunities. The following stocks made the screen last night.
STMicroelectronics N.V. (ADR) [[STM]] Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation [[SWHC]] Aeropostale, Inc. [[ARO]] ON Semiconductor Corp. [[ONNN]] Union Pacific Corporation [[UNP]] Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (USA) [[RBA]] [[AOD]]
Please be advised that some of these companies may have just reported, or will be reporting soon. As always, do your own research on these before jumping in blind.
[[ORLY]] (yesterday’s pick) reports tonight. Rather than gamble with earnings, my personal preference is to close the position out, regardless of whether the system gives an exit signal.
The system will now be holding eight positions in the model portfolio, meaning it is full. However, in my own account, I may allow up to ten positions. Again, these decisions should be made based on your own risk profile, not mine.
Wood,
I really hope for your sake that you are not buying dips here. The rally is over tomorrow. You should be getting into short positions today on any strength. The pain tomorrow and Friday are going to bring back the depression talk of last fall. If you are long going into this, you are going to get hurt really badly.
Is this devildog disguising himself as a date now?
Some nice picks Wood. I especially like the charts of SWHC (very nice bullish contracting volume on the pullback) and ONNN (what a nice uptrend).
Seriously, those sorts of comments like devildog/ July 30 ought to be fucking erased, as their about as fucking useless as anything could be and it just fucks with people’s heads.
I’m not suggesting the market can’t go down or shit like that, that isn’t the point. However the sack of shit has been posting that swill for over a week now. It doesn’t serve any purpose because unless he’s freaking god he has no idea what the market will do in week let alone point to specific point in time when it could go up or down.
this stuff is just shit and ought to be erased.
j, I think it’s J0shingU.
July 30th, 2009 – Do you care to share any information as to why YOU think the market will start trading down? Otherwise, please stop posting your prediction. It is getting annoying to read
j, I understand where you are coming from, but I’m not a fan of deleting comments. Rather, it is probably better that they stand, to be evaluated in time.
July, I am long these names.
I am a mechanical systems trader. I do what the systems tell me to do, for better or worse.
no that’s fine shed. I just get upset with stuff like that, as it sort of does screw with your head a little the way the dog used with people here before he was taken out on life support in a stretcher.
I just really hate that sort of stuff. If the nimbus has a reason then by all means say why he thinks it’s taking a tanking.
Okay guys.
First of all, I am not devildog or Josh. I am primarily a lurker in these forums. I will provide you how I came up with this hypothesis, you can take it or leave it. You may believe I am nuts for believing this, but amazingly, it looks as though my prediction is coming true.
I am not God, however, the whole concept is what is behind my prediction. Tomorrow is a very important day on the Jewish calendar called Tisha B’Av. It is a day of mourning for the Jewish people. You can do research on it by googling the term.
Now, you may wonder why that day means a damn thing on the market. Normally, I don’t think it means a thing. However, this year, Purim, a jovial holiday was the day the market started it’s huge run in March.
In many ways, these 2 holidays are traditionally antitheses of each other.
Now, is that nuts or what? Yes, it is. But it is going to make me a fucking rich motherfucker.
Thanks for sharing your idea and no, I don’t think your nuts. The market moves on events, no?. You have an idea and placed a bet on it. It’s better then some of the readers on this site who can’t think for themselves and just follow The Fly and fellow bloggers trading moves.
why did you spill the beans before tomorrow?
oops they’re
Wood – Did you hear the comments yesterday about the uselessness of the “golden cross” and trend following systems in general? I will not mention the person’s name. He basically dismissed them all out of hand and used the cross of 100 through 200 as an example of being late and missing the party.
I thought it pretty egregious as it was clearly aimed at people who are newcomers or people who want to learn. He did a great disservice to the advancement of investor education and to the general public’s understanding of what we do. If he wanted to highlight the differences between trend following and mean reversion or bottom picking/fundamental methodologies, he could have done it in the same amount of time and provided people with some useful information that might have helped them decide which would fit their particular style.
Any thoughts? BTW, I think you are doing a fantastic job of providing the information I’m talking about.
Wood, are comments getting “eaten?” I thought I posted a rather long comment and it’s not here. Fooey.
never mind…
Oh Okay, now I know, it’s those pesky Jews out there again ruining a perfectly good bull market. lol.
Today is the day. They are propping this market up quite nicely in the pre-market, which I should have expected. Today is a crucial day for this market, as I predicted. The futures are pointing to a sharply higher open. I suspect that the swings today are going to be massive, and the treasury auction this afternoon will be the death nail. Good luck to everyone, I am not going to sit in front of my computer today since I don’t want to be tempted to do something I will regret later.
July:
just so I know, if you’re wrong today, would you like the crow to be well done or medium?
Well done would be fine. And if I am right, I expect steaks. Not looking so good right now, but this is all noise, its all about the closing bell.
btw, if you are looking for a tell as to the top of the market. Look at a chart of LQD. Interesting that it ended the day at its high for the day. The market fell apart the last two times it reached approximately this level. I swear today is going to be gut wrenching to trade.
July, like it or lump it, but there seem to be several coordinated measures designed to squeeze the bears. My long-term bias is still short, but so far, the recent uptrend seems to be ready to continue.
Absolutely true, it is a coordinated effort. We shall see what happens. You win in pre-market.
July, I lost 8% of total equity during the last couple of weeks, due to the squeeze. Believe me, I haven’t been winning much. Luckily (at least so far) my systems quit shorting and have rushed to go all in long.
OUCH!!!! This morning hurts bad. I am holding on to my shorts with the hope that this reverses with the 7 year treasury auction. I have already lost my ass, so no reason not to wait for it now. There is one thing that sucks about trying to call a top, you miss by just one day, and it really gets to you. BTW, I am still keeping my call for the top. As a matter of fact, I believe 999 will be the top in the S&P. We should hit that today. The sell-off may not start until tomorrow unfortunately for me. I am ready to eat my crow though, if it doesn’t happen.