Why beat a dead horse? Besides, I couldn’t really say it any better than The Fly has been saying it.
Well, I guess I could pull up quotes from my posts in November, when I was bearish while The Fly was still a bull, and when I told you to expect at least a second leg down. But that would require more effort than its worth, and I just got off the road from a visit with family and have more important things to do, like laundry.
For what its worth, I have played the bear conservatively, keeping roughly a 30% short and 70% cash position. Going in to tomorrow I have the following positions, all are short or inverse etfs:
 [[FXP]], [[XLB]], [[IFN]], [[EWZ]], [[DECK]], [[XOM]]
The only long position I have is [[GLD]].
While you may think I’m weak for keeping a large cash position and a smaller short position, this positioning has allowed me to stay short, catching a large move down, without having to lose sleep about waking up one morning to a huge reflex rally. Plus, in December I was coming out of cold spell and felt it was prudent to stay small until my mojo returned. When this type of scenario returns 5-10 years from now, maybe I’ll be more bold and go 60% short and 40% cash.
My advice to anyone out there willing to heed it is to examine your family’s long-term retirement positions. Many make the mistake of thinking they are safe from any meltdown if they are in bonds. Not true. I urge you to check the bonds you hold on Morningstar for any over-exposure to the credit industry, specifically to mortgage-backed assets and consumer-related credit.
In my opinion, a major default scenario is possible. Should that occur, bonds holding a large percentage of Treasuries will be the safest place for your life-savings.
You and Jake always mention being early.
However, both of you were too early.
If you recall, I made 25 points on VMI, while you were digging through honey holes.
If I recall Devildog was first.
KC- got my VIZ shirt. Awesome. Thanks!
I had to explain it to my wife. She was thoroughly bored by it all.
Bullshit, Devildog was after me and Wood, we just weren’t as obnoxious about it as he was.
This pretty much contains it:
Well, I guess I could pull up quotes from my posts in November, when I was bearish while The Fly was still a bull, and when I told you to expect at least a second leg down. But that would require more effort than its worth, and I just got off the road from a visit with family and have more important things to do, like laundry.
25 points in VMI… vs. 50 pts in MON before the meltdown.
yeah woodrow, you forgot to also tell the folks that you were 70% cash rather than all-in short because you thought you might need some cash to finnish-up your shower and you had not yet decided whether you would go with a plastic shower curtain or a glass door
bylo- still have the plastic curtain up, although I have the new door here. Just haven’t put it in yet.
It’s true, I was thoroughly bored by it all.
However, I am fucking sick of that plastic curtain.
Woody, you said it was just me and you? What gives?
Yoo awl wood hev a lot mor posts if “lil’ Woody” dint lahk comin’ out at the trailah pahk.
Ah mean, “big Woody and lil Woody.”