How about a tech stock with a “promise”…

If you believe the rumor of a Verizon iPhone and that QCOM already has the order for millions of handsets, then why wouldn’t you buy this?

Over the past few trading days the higher low for the SPX held, but we then made a lower high–as the noose got even tighter. Now we are again testing and marginally breaking that higher low made the other day.

No more do investors anticipate events and act proactively. They are now simply reactive, taking action on rear-looking indicators and results. They are scared today with 500k new unemployment claims.

What has them most spooked is the bond market. In an effort to drop mortgage rates to a level where those who are able to refinance will do so, the FED is unintentionally scaring investors into thinking that we are already down the drain. While that may be true, it has been for so for over two years now. It is time to anticipate the turn to stability. But as usual, most investors will sell just before the turn up, at the point of maximum frustration, like now–exactly like they buy because they are “comfortable” when markets are about to make their cycle highs.

Who do you think is buying all these Treasuries, all of a sudden? There is no bubble if the policy makers decide to buy.

Our tactics have been to buy at the low end of our trading range and to continue to accumulate as we traverse the trading range. But it is somtimes difficult and frustrating to watch.

Remember the calendar. Tomorrow is option expiration and we know that hedges get rolled for the September/October time frame. They have been rolling each month during this ever-tightending trading range and we have dropped each and ever time. But it also has worked to be a trading-oriented buying opportunity.  Look through the calendar, grasshopper!

We’ve been trading in an approximately 100 point SPX range for almost 5 months. We’ve had 4 false breakout and 5 failed breakdowns. Yet each time we approach support or resistance, the histrionics begin anew.

Look, you know what they say about uncertainty so I won’t bore you with it. But there is uncertainty all around, so don’t expect a breakout or a breakdown that actually works yet.

So many smart folks “just know” that we will correct 10% or more come September/October and are heavily hedged. If those hedges have an expiration, expect them to be burned to the ground before a meaningful fall. And if there is no expiration, then expect further derivative decay. Playing it careful will remain very expensive–until you least expect it. When it gets cheap again, watch out…

The higher low looks confirmed, unless we give it all back by day’s end. We remain capped at 1130, but we could easily “pop” to test 1150, the January highs. But that’s about it. Now all we need is some upside volume. But oh, it’s the middle of August and things are slow!

So today we have begun the process of making back what was lost last week. The stocks that were down 7% in a day last week are up as much this morning.

Market internals are stellar and we are approaching our first zone of resistance rather quickly. M/A gets everyone’s juices flowing. Plus we have the promise that the “powers that be” won’t let us fall into the deflationary spiral spinning just over the horizon, so the dollar is heading lower. That is all the market needs to rise. Silly, huh?

Look, when we were near SPX 1130, I forecast a pullback to the 1080 area, then perhaps 1060, but that a higher low would be made for this range. Now, getting through 1105 will lead to the 1120 area. The trading range continues…

We caught the falling knife in energy and now we are catching knives in technology.

Bearishness? Doubt? Disaster? fuggetaboutit! (for today…)

The last technical signal in Copper worked like a charm. Will this?

Yields have dropped from 4% in April to 2.575% today, an over 30% fall…

Quantitative Easing at its finest!