Over the past few trading days the higher low for the SPX held, but we then made a lower high–as the noose got even tighter. Now we are again testing and marginally breaking that higher low made the other day.
No more do investors anticipate events and act proactively. They are now simply reactive, taking action on rear-looking indicators and results. They are scared today with 500k new unemployment claims.
What has them most spooked is the bond market. In an effort to drop mortgage rates to a level where those who are able to refinance will do so, the FED is unintentionally scaring investors into thinking that we are already down the drain. While that may be true, it has been for so for over two years now. It is time to anticipate the turn to stability. But as usual, most investors will sell just before the turn up, at the point of maximum frustration, like now–exactly like they buy because they are “comfortable” when markets are about to make their cycle highs.
Who do you think is buying all these Treasuries, all of a sudden? There is no bubble if the policy makers decide to buy.
Our tactics have been to buy at the low end of our trading range and to continue to accumulate as we traverse the trading range. But it is somtimes difficult and frustrating to watch.
Remember the calendar. Tomorrow is option expiration and we know that hedges get rolled for the September/October time frame. They have been rolling each month during this ever-tightending trading range and we have dropped each and ever time. But it also has worked to be a trading-oriented buying opportunity. Look through the calendar, grasshopper!
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I’ve had my 401k sitting in cash for a while. Putting 50% back in today and 50% back in tomorrow if we go even lower.
This is turning into March 2009.
why don’t you do 25% 4x…instead of 50% 2x
Because i have the patience of a ferret
However, Sold…that’s what i’ll do. Think ima pour it into large caps.
I have a pretty good track record with this stuff…rarely trade 401k….but i did sell at 13,600 and got back in at 8000k. That was pretty sweet.
I went back to cash at 1135 on the S&P recently….feels like there is more risk of missing upside than downside at this point.
Although i do think low 1000’s are probable…so 4x might let me enjoy scaling in at lower prices.
25% in and done. mid-cap value….
should be up when i can cash it in 30 years from now.
Scott, are you adding to your AVD position here? It’s down from it’s recent what, $9-something? Appreciate it. Thanks.
I will add when it is dry…
permabullish nonsense.
prepare to be crushed bulls.
“Inverse Head/Shoulder” on daily charts of major indexes, “Quintuple Bottom” in SMH ,and TLT+FXY near or at blow-off top. Add to that a brewing “Megaphone bottom” in XLF 60 min chart, and the perfect triple bottoms on 60 min charts of most major indexes. There are MANY technical reasons to be bullish here.
By the way, random troll, do you really think fund managers will wait until the day after the election to cover their shorts? Have you seen the poll numbers lately? The election is a done deal for the republicans. You do know what happened after 1994 mid-terms, don’t you?
Ok, now , seriously, back to the vacation I was supposed to start yesterday. First real vacation in 2 years.
I’m British, don’t give 2 cents for your election.
Look for comfort in your charts through bull-tinted glasses (triple bottoms, lol, at this price, the name gives it away…they come as bottoms!).
I’ll see y’all at SPY 850 in about 12 weeks or so, it’s gonna be a fun ride down.
Love you all, keep buying those dips.
If you are investing in our markets then you better give 2 cents about our elections.
As usual you are sanity in a sea of shit
taking a deep breath. in through the nose, out through the mouth…
Nice post. Gonna start calling you “Rocky,” I think.
Sorry you’ve attracted the Toothless Brit Troll. Wages of fame, I’m afraid.
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I’ve been called that mostly all my life. You are, of course, showing your age…
But over the past few years I’ve picked up a new nickname: Ari.
LOL. I remember the TV movie from when I was a kid, but I don’t recall every seeing Rocky play.
He was a Viet Nam vet, no?
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Reactive market is exactly right. Great post again, as we have come to expect from Mr. Bleier.
Just put in another 25%, for what its worth. I will save the last 50% to see if i can get in near 1000. Or ill buy back in above the 200.
we’ll see.
I don’t mind 50% exposure. I will outperform the indexes at least. Considering trading limitations in a 401k, thats about as good as i can hope for.