You needn’t worry too much about Treasuries…

We are right now fullfilling my longstanding prophesy that we are Japan. It has become a popular point of view.  Mortgage rates will be 3% in about a year, and as unthinkable as that was a year ago, so it was written, so let it be done.

Sure, there are differences between our countries and our business cycles. But ours is the mature, non-growing, oversized economy that will become the source of “cheap currency” for the world’s “carry trade”. This will keep our boat afloat until the next Presidential election.

But for right now, anyone left in the market is hedged for the “coming debacle” that will begin the day all the kids go back to school and never end… I kid…You’ll have a chance to hedge as we test the highs of the year.

What will it take to get there, you ask?

To be continued…

How’s this for symmetrical harmony and precision? Written by my 6 year old. Look how he captures the true nature of this market!

They kind of look familiar, don’t they? My charts come to mind.

Mine provide more useful information. They are better researched. And they actually make a call.

I know they look similar but mine were here first and are prettier. So there…

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-next-weeks-bearish-action-goldman-warns-meaningful-decline-stocks

http://tinyurl.com/3xymawm

PLEASE read this article if you want an honest assessment of most of the financial journalists that you see and hear on TV day after day. I know a few too!

There are certainly some exceptions, but not many…

This time last month the markets were beginning a rally from the range lows and the sentiment was as negative as any time since the crash in 2008. The rally actually “got some legs” and many stocks rallied sharply. The government numbers continued to be awful but there was even some positive talk in the press that things weren’t as bad as they seemed. The talk of the “death cross”, head and shoulders tops and a break of support disappeared for a moment. Amazingly, after one vicious down day this week, the talk has quickly returned to overwhelmingly negative. There is talk of the “Hindenburg Omen” and today is Friday the 13th. Everyone finally has the word “deflation” in their minds and Glen Beck is talking about the Weimar Republic. The world is convinced of a double dip and a depression.

The fact is that the stock, commodity and forex markets seem incredibly thin. Stocks are liquid, but almost everything moves at once and in the same direction. Commodity prices are moving sharply higher as the refuge of “real” assets and the bond market rally bringing Treasury yields near their crash 2008 lows are spooking everyone just a little bit. But this action is all part of the “new normal”. Yes, growth will be manipulated to barely positive. Growth will be a thing of the past and the sooner everyone gets used to that, the better off the markets will be. How can there be growth when we continue to exist in a credit contracting environment? It cannot be done without the aid and assistance of the government creating the money out of thin air. Creating capital, as it were. They can still do it, but certainly not forever.

So, here I am, mostly minding my own business and accumulating my chosen stocks on weakness. Most folks tell me that I’m crazy to buy anything because the market “has to go down”. After all, everything sucks and a double dip recession is assured. Nevertheless, I continue to accumulate falling knives and otherwise “left for dead” stocks of many ilk.

Before you knew it the market rallied and kept going. Maybe it was good earnings or maybe the computers got too bearish. Maybe they thought there would be a new round of free money from our friends in Washington because after all, a healthy stock market eventually means a healthy economy. Right Maestro? So there was no reason not to bid-em-up and anyone who hedged looked a little foolish.

The bid-em up crowd was happy to get back to the top of the trading range but there were still doubts about whether Uncle Benny would pony up. After all, it has been almost two years since the crash and a birthday present is certainly in order. But no wonderful gift arrived. We simply got a card bringing us “All Good Wishes for the Future” signed, Ben…There was no check…Boy were we pissed. We’ll show that putz not to bring presents to the party!

After one trading day where everything went down, the consensus is that we suck, again and that we have to fall big. So far we are holding at the first area of big support, right smack in the middle of our almost 4 month trading range. Now, it’s all up to the dollar. Can the Powers that Be manipulate it to go lower like they have for the past few months? How about some consolidation first to work off the vicousness of all that trending?

We should no longer be thinking about the heat outside but rather the cold winter approaching and the holiday season. We are coming into historically the worst time of the year and everyone is hedged and ready for the crash. As long a we remain in our range, there will be no crash or stupendous market-shorting opportunity, unless you think yesterday will be repeated ad-nauseum. It is possible, but doubtful.

Find what is testing its recent early July lows and buy them for the inevitable bounce back to their early August levels. That’s what the markets are giving us now and that is what we will take…No stupendous bullishness or bearishness. Just waiting for the near-term extremes that continues to be opportunity, and that will probably be nearer to SPX 1060 than 1080…