Where I Be

I made three trades early this morning:

1) I sold out of CF because it wasn’t responding to The PPT o/s like statistics say it has in the past
2) I bought SKF with 10% of book as a hedge
3) I bought a starter in SCHN. This is my steel play. It has solid fundamentals and a good debt situation despite 8 acquisitions in the past 9 months. It also has a short interest of 8% which will be extra fuel to the fire should the shorts who piled in rush for the exits. Technically, on the weekly it just got the “roll” on the wilder’s and on the daily it’s possibly completing a reverse h&s. Truthfully, above 42 is the go-point for SCHN, but I wanted a piece here.

I’m now 46% long and 10% SKF.

The market is still exceptionally shaky, ready to be thrown off a cliff at a moment’s notice. (specifically the notice of EU chopping their own cocks off over and over again) That said, I don’t think shorts feel very safe here either, since the closer we get to falling off the cliff, the closer we get to a government parachute. (do you like my metaphors?) A political solution or temporary fix to the world’s economic problems will put short sellers into a vice and squeeze their little brains out. Don’t play games and remember to go outside.

As if this market wasn’t complicated enough, with the various cross currents battling it out, now we’re laden with an entire industry spiking on account of a major company within the industry REDUCING estimates by 30% or some shit. I’ve been a little busy today, affected by LOLitis and now forced to attend prior engagements, but I plan on sitting down and looking at the steel & iron names later today. Bottom line is, if a company says we’re going to suck more than analysts think, and then spikes, then speculators have beaten the name to a pulp in preparation for something horrific. These names should definitely provide healthy risk/reward scenarios, should a name operate efficiently and/or the horrific speculation not come to fruition.

I’m outta here, again. Talk to ya later.

It’s easy to see what’s going on here. The market’s upside momentum is being ravaged by EU headline risk causing people to flake out and sell into any and all strength. It’s a little disturbing for longs, but at the same time, could prove ultimately the best buying prices. I said this A.M. that I would sell out of the ETFs and look to initiate shorts, but instead fell victim to LOLitis and overtraded my way into frustration. I’m left with 6 positions I’m happy with: WNR, MU, CF, GSVC, AEC and CENX.

I’m hesitant to initiate shorts here, seeing as how the market certainly feels tempted to “get on up.” While I understand the downside risk, I’d rather be long+cash than long+short should the market go where I feel it wants to, which will happen if the EU headline risk ceases for even a couple days, or better yet, another temporary solution is agreed upon. Into strength I will diverge from CF and perhaps MU, only after initiating some short-sale exposure. Should the market melt down, I’m saddled with 50% cash that will protect me from extreme drawdowns, allow me to average down in positions and, if the situation gets so bloody bad that it warrants short selling into the messy, red shithole, then I can do that to.

So, what’s it gonna be? Blue skies or red seas?

I’m pretty sure I’m fucking awake. And when I awoke, the futures were down significantly.
That changed when Europe rumor #1 was released, and witnessed the market move up. Then rumor #1 was denied, and the markets slid again.
Then rumor #2 was released, and the markets roared, accompanied by a stronger Euro. Then rumor #2 was denied.
Then rumor #3 came out and the markets sank again, so on and so forth.

HOLY FUCK, I MUST BE DREAMING.

When, in the history of markets, has the market swung so wildly on every single fucking news item released from the likes of Benzinga, zerohedge and Reuters alike?

This is not a market to play based on oversold/overbought ranges, as it can’t make up it’s fucking mind and the real path of the markets are skewed and distorted by headline risk that weighs far heavier than ever before.

Thus, I have a new plan. I am going to sell out of the ETFs I own, attempting to game the market long right now, and immediately look to initiate shorts.

My longs will outperform on green days and my shorts on red days. My book will be balanced, leaning one way or another at certain times, but UNAFFECTED BY THIS BULLSHIT.

I’m LOLing as all you suckers hop in and out of various ETFs and stocks, frustrated as fuck because this market has you by the tail.

Make a plan and stick with it, bitches. Overtrading is for losers.

I bought TNA & WNR today and shorted VXX.
Update: Hopped into MU and added TNA again @ EOD

I read some interesting conversation between two market participants on a renown message board….

1: This market is gayer than Richard Simmons

2: gayer than a michigan frat boy

1: gayer than romo the homo

2: indeed

No offense to gay people of course…