Joined Jan 1, 1970
1,010 Blog Posts

It’s 4am

Today was kind of a waste for me. Afflicted with a hangover from the previous night, I kind of just mosied around all day, not really accomplishing anything. Now it’s 4am and I’m stricken with insomnia. I had planned on writing a decent blog, one of a series that would detail my dissatisfaction with the U.S.A. I’ve wanted to put into words my thoughts regarding America’s infatuation with professional sports and the problems that arise by paying politicians good salaries, among other subjects, that often really bother me.

Since almost four years ago when I went on vacation to Costa Rica and wound up staying and living there and more recently visiting countries in the Caribbean, Central & South America, Europe and the Middle East, I’ve noticed that every country I’ve been to does something better than us Americans. I grew apart from America a bit. For example, the easy going lifestyle in Costa Rica is incredible. Everyone is tranquil, not bothered by the annoyances of daily life that would send typical Americans reeling. Or in Israel, I was stunned by the unity among the citizens when I was given the opportunity to participate in a social protest that saw 250,000 people attend, a proportionate amount to 11,000,000 here in the States. Could you imagine 11,000,000 people rallying in D.C. or N.Y.? To top it all off, I’ve never really had an appreciable connection to the U.S. I was born here and have lived here for most of my life, but really all I have here are family and friends. And to be brutally honest, I’d quickly up and leave everyone behind were I to feel it be the best decision for my life.

But today kind of changed me. It wasn’t the 9/11 remembrances or the constant display of pride and strength by my fellow countrymen, but rather a thought that entered my mind associated with 9/11. “For what reason is a person, or country, so hated or loved?” America must be incredibly good at what it’s doing, to generate such strong feelings in our admirers and our despisers. There really is no middle of the spectrum when it comes to the U.S.A. Further, a country that so quickly formed and rose to power has to be doing something right, right?

We still boast some of the world’s finest educational institutions. We still rank highly in innovation, in all arenas. We dominate world athletics. And while in some instances our departure abroad to fight on behalf of other countries was ill-conceived and arguably “incorrect”, we were certainly appreciated in others, such as World War I and II. These are just some of the illustrations of America’s blessings.

It was inevitable that we give back some of the power attained post world-war II to rising nations as they too look to continually push forward into the future. And certainly there are a lot of domestic problems.

But two things are still true: we are a democracy where citizens have a say and capitalism still reigns. And that’s all I really want. Today I re-realized why I’m proud to be American.





p.s. It’s 4am and all that was straight off the top, but bottom line is “U-S-A!”

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Ready For Monday?

I made three adds in WNR, AEC and CENX late Friday. Futures are down, so they’re not looking that great. I’m ready for Monday, though, as it seems this week will be the confirmation or denial of the markets being favorable for bears.

I’m watching Italian yields and EU headline risk as the biggest market factors. We’re sitting on a pretty big technical level, as displayed by many to be long-term support and the bottom of a bear flag, so if the market doesn’t recover quickly and early this week, then I think it’s time to start to short, for the first time since early 2009.

I’m 43% cash, then IWD, WNR, AEC, CENX & GSVC, not in order of quantity. Also own GDXJ and SIL.

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And Another Note…

A while ago I wrote a post titled “An Italian Job” that assessed the debt situation in the EU based on two numbers: GDP and debt/GDP.  The post is viewable here. I came to the conclusion that Greece didn’t really matter, as it’s figures were insignificant compared to some other EU nations. In reality, Greece only has a few hundred billin (pronounced billin like I’m from the south) which is entirely within the bailout boundaries of larger nations such as China or USA and large monetary institutions like the IMF. Also, remember that Germany has already declared their banks safe.

Thus, the key question is whether or not a Greek default would lead to a Spanish or an Italian default. If Spain or Italy default, game over. If Greece defaults, though, the immediate reaction will most likely be much more serious than the reality of the situation.

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Chill The Fuck Out

I sold out of FL because the o/s timetable was 5 days and its time is up. I’m happy I booked gains in VXX and TNA because if I saw +8% and +18% respectively dwindle away then I’d be furious, knowing the beta attached to these fuckers. Other than that, I haven’t done much. I’m back to almost 50% cash and back to about flat on the account.

Now, I’m hesitant to believe that Greece is going to default this weekend. On the one hand, Germany immediately responded by saying that their banks would be bailed out. However, rarely does the action take place in such a short time difference from the surface of the rumor. Typically, it will be “Greece is going to default.” Then a few days will pass and nothing happens, and the headline doesn’t resurface until a bit later.

If Greece does default, though, then we should see strength in the dollar AND gold, which would be odd. Because the reactions in these assets are already taking place, my theory is less credible. Gold and the USD become more attractively simply because the Euro becomes less attractive. Enough about that. Let’s talk about how I’m going to play it.

Basically, the way I see it, there is one ETF made aware to The PPT community just recently that is perfect; a gold bull/s&p bear spread ETF, ticker FSG. It’s a double, so watch the fuck out, but depending on how the market closes I may give this guy a go for the weekend.

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A Discussion On Currency

Many thoughts I’ve been pondering lately have been about currency and more specifically, why every country is intent on devaluing theirs. It seems ass backwards to me, that a country would want their currency to be less powerful, as if a company would want their stock to be less powerful. The currency of a country really can be likened to the stock of that country, no?

Let me preface the rest of this by first saying that I’m not an Economist, nor do I have any post-graduate education in the field. I only know what I’ve read and taught myself, thus my conclusions may be inaccurate. I’m merely trying to create a discussion here, mostly to continue my learning from those who perhaps know more than I do.

Now, here’s what I know about a weak currency and the benefits it brings:

1) Cheaper exports. This leads to a stronger GDP and thriving exportation businesses as their goods are priced more attractively to foreigners.

2) Cheaper debt. A devaluation over time in the currency that your debt is denominated in means it is easier to pay back.

Now, I’d like to make an argument as to why Americans should cheer on the dollar, and dislike the inflationary tactics that have lead to the dollar’s whamboozling.

1) A stronger dollar makes imports cheaper. This makes it easier for Americans to purchase goods, as they can buy more of a good per unit of currency. Oil, electronics, cars and other massively consumed, imported goods would instantly be more affordable.

2) A stronger dollar attracts investment from abroad. Foreign capital will be attracted to invest in assets denominated in a safe and strong currency.

3) A stronger dollar attracts domestic investment. This is incredibly important, as the U.S. would be less reliant on foreign investment, and would be able to satisfy debt supply from within its own borders.

4) A strong dollar forces production efficiency. Business will be the ones left to manage technology vs labor and businesses will be the ones forced to run as optimally as possible. While you may argue that a strong dollar hampers a business because of higher input costs, I argue that the best businesses are left to survive in a very Darwin manner. This is extraordinarily beneficial, especially after the recent economic mess, where a lot of the fault can be laid on the shoulders of the businesses who were messy, risky and inefficient.

In reality, the only real downside that I can see to a very strong currency is a reduction in exports.

But imagine this: A country whose currency is immensely strong and that produces everything it needs. Why do we (U.S.A.) have to import so much fucking shit, anyway? Are you telling me that American ingenuity and technology cannot compete with slave labor abroad? If so, then just make a better quality good. I believe there are two ways to compete, price and quality. Over here in America, we pay higher prices just to pay higher prices and think highly of ourselves. I’m sure if the higher price of a domestically produced good was actually warranted due to a better quality good, we would be ecstatic to purchase that good. So, in continuation, a country that has an uber strong currency and produces most of everything it needs. And what it does need to import, is cheaper anyway because the currency is stronger. Further, the country can finance all its own debt, because its citizens gladly invest in the currency due to its strength.

It seems to me like the Keynesian approach to a world-wide currency battle of who can LOSE THE BEST is completely ignoring the truth of the situation: a stronger currency explicitly leads to a higher standard of living for its users.

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An Increase In Fuck You Weather This Year

Plethora of earthquakes, from nasty, destructive ones in typical areas to misplaced quakes in fucking VA through PA. Rain that could flood a fucking ocean.

I feel like I’m gonna be surprised with what the fall brings and the fuck outta the Northeast by winter.


Here I am at 4am having just moved my truck into my driveway because my street is fucking flooding again.

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