More Vacationland, and a Quick Jig for the RIG Gig

Back from a day of rocky coast sunbathing amongst some of the most egregious white people (and I mean like “blinding”) east of the Mississippi.    I think the whiteness may have to do with most of them being part polar bear, seeing how they can swim amongst ice floes with seemingly no hypothermic results.   Perhaps its the abundant seal blubber? 

Whatever the case, there’s no need of “sunblock” up here, at least, as the sun that does fall to earth here arrives at an angle similar to the one that illuminates the Greenland Ice Shelf.   As a result, even the most Hibernian of complexions can frolick in mid-day direct solar effrontery without fear of chill reduction, never mind melanin reaction.

Leave the aloe at home, ovah heah.

Two things I saw — a lot of Tevas and tie-dye tee shirts.    Two things I didn’t see, “pool shoes” (or whatever) and waxed eyebrows.   A lot more monobrows than metrosexuals, if ya know what I’m sayin’.    

The best, however, are the old-line preppies walking around with their madras shorts, salt-rimed LaCoste polos and tortoise shell grandpa sunglasses, with maybe a Yale Yachting cap to top off the cheery ensemble.   These people are great because they really have no idea what the hell they are doing in Maine, yet they are bound by tradition to be here.   I’m sure their teenagers are thinking “Buffie, what in God’s green are we doing on this godforsaken freezing cold  rocky beach when we could be pounding chillies in Easthampton or at least on the Vineyard?”  Such remarks, if uttered aloud, will earn them a “hard stare” from Mama Muffie, though in her heart she may share the wistful sentiment.

As a result, they all have this vaguely dissatisfied look, and you can almost kind of sympathize.   Sometimes it’s not good to have money from the 19thcentury, especially when it includes Great Grampy’s Ocean View bought in an era where it was “low class” to get one’s feet sandy, and only the “townee” servants actually touched the seawater (inadvertantly, and whilst collecting the lobster pots).

Moral of the story: If you are going to be born in a blue blood family, try to aim for New York or Philadelphia,  with the Hamptons or Cape May house on the balance sheet, in order to avoid getting stuck summering in “Vacationland.”    Boston is just too risky, and anywhere north of there, fugheddaboudit.

Bidness:  RIG is in an interesting place, as you can see from it’s weekly Fib chart here.   If it can get a rally off these levels, it might be a nice hold into the winter months, whilst everything else returns to shit.  

But be cautioned, as the 13-34 week negative crossover is also sometimes caused “The Cross of Mass Bludgeoning,”  and can lead to much weeping for a long.   A bounce here, however would negate that imminent move and perhaps, bring much joy instead.   I’d say that 38% line will tell the tale at $124.38.  (click the graph twice to see it up close):

Back to braving Nor’easters and overconfident kayakers.   Ciao.

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That’s marketing for you.  Take a state with no industry, few people, freezing cold ocean water with a rocky frozen coast overgrown with pine trees and about three weeks of reasonably warm weather a year and give it the name nickname “Vacationland,” and dumb Northeastern “hardy-type” fuckers will be all over it.

I think they’re nuts, but what do I know, I enjoy warm weather during the Summer months.  In the meantime, both my wife and I have more family up here than we care to admit to in “respectable” circles.   So here I am, with my mittens off for a second.

  At least the internet access is a little more convenient than in Lawn Guyland, where “grandparent activities” and beach frolicking cut into my ability to post like a coked up Ebay trader (a la GreenMan).   I make no excuses for my frippery, and Skateboardin’ Dan can go squeeze a sexually suggestive eggplant substitute. 

On to bidness…

Here’s a stock very dear to my heart, as it’s been in the family for a long time.  In my opinion it’s a “blue chipper” that ought to be in the Dow 30.   United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] has only been public for less than ten years, however, and perhaps those Dow Dicks need to have a little bit more “tenure” for their publicly traded members, even if UPS has been around for over 100 years, as of earlier this year.  

In any case, UPS is a great proxy for the economy, even moreso maybe, than the Transport Index [[TRAN]] .  UPS flies and trucks more basic retail and bullshit packages to more people than anyone else by far, and their business health reflects the health of the overall consumer economy.    High gas prices?  UPS trucks and planes get more expensive.   Less available consumer cash (via savings or credit)?  Less bullshit packages getting sent from Grandma to little Johnny, and thus less visits from the nice man with the brown shorts and Teva’s.   It’s not advanced mathematics.  

Here’s the weekly chart, and as you can tell, it’s not very pretty.   UPS has had a rebound along with the rest of the “hoped for” bull market, but is stalling right at it’s intermediate “line of death” right on schedule.  Aren’t these weeklies great for the “step back” view of what’s really going on, ovah heah?

 Know this, I will never sell my UPS, and in fact will be looking to add to it again, at first opportunity.   But I believe that opportunity will be in the low $50’s.   In the meantime, I am “double hedged” via short calls and long dated puts.    I plan to take that hedge cash and push it back into more UPS in the coming months.  

Here’s the chart, for your viewing pleasure (remember to click twice to get the full view):

 

Off to “dig clams” in my Patagonia sweater or some hardy shit like that.  Ciao.

 

 

 

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Fly posts his “top tens” all the time, but my seven to ten’s are usually dwarfed by my larger ETF positions.   [[SKF]] , [[FXP]] and [[EEV]] are the three that are dominant in my portfolio right now, and in fact make up almost a third of my largest (largely non trading) account.   Skiffles used to be the superstar, and I’ve added another 66% to the position since it’s fall from grace.  As of today, its monetary value is about 85%  of the two other positions combined.

Here are the long term (two year) charts and fibs for each.  As always, click on the charts (twice) for the “close-up” detailed view.

[[SKF]] first:

She’s my baby, but she’s still sick.   Note that recent downtrend line she’s fighting.   I am looking to add maybe 20% more to my position, and I believe we may get one more drop to the recent lows, if not to the downtrend line itself, in the coming weeks.  If not, and we break through that downtrend line we touched just today (note the last candle), then I will rejoice, and perhaps add that last bit at a break of $130.00. 

Next, our Olympic friend [[FXP]] :

That was a healthy bit of business she put in today, taking that solid white candle right over the 50% fib line with ease.   I think she’ll have no trouble getting to the 61.8% fib very quickly, and maybe even this week, at $98.00.   After that, however, I think we may be in for a retrace at least back to the 50% line at $90.70, which would be very healthy, given the slightly oversold condition she’s in right now.    As you know, 61.8% is a hardy line, so when she busts that one, I think we’ll have clear sailing to new highs, maybe even before the year is out.  

 I may sell a bit at $98.00, however, to take advantage of the trade conditions.   It will be wholly dependent on what our volume looks like in the coming days and weeks.   If we get a post Orympics depression let down in China, I may just keep it all as we jet through $98.

I saved the best for last, [[EEV]] , my little ultra short emerging market “light under the bushel.”

Would you just look at that beauty?  Hugging that trend line since mid-May and building up and consolidating with a lot of fat buys in July, she is now “off to the races” so to speak, thanks to Mr. Dollar juicing on the anabolics.   

While this is not good news for the BRIC fans, it is a nice hedge — especially for you Skiffles fans — against those “fake dollar” bank rises we’ve been experiencing lately.  Yes, EEV has been my shelter in the Skiffle storm.  

Not much to say about the chart.   Looks like we’ve cleared most of the really significant resistance, and we should be heading for new highs in almost no time.   Of all of my holdings, I think this is one you can buy tomorrow morning and be fine til year end at least.   I may even add another 20-25% myself.

Best to all, Ciao.

 

 

 

 

 

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Commies suck.

 

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No, Dino, that’s not Liberace.

Okay, so the guy from the vid is Thomas Payne or maybe one of the extras from the Sopranos… Whichever, his message– albeit “populist” — is one worth considering:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKFKGrmsBDk 450 300]

Polite commentary is appreciated.

 

 

 

 

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What am I nuts? 

Am I wearing kevlar gloves that I should think I can catch knives falling at  “terminal velocity?”

Maybe.    But the charts below illustrate what I saw on Friday in early morning trading.   Yes ladies and gentlemen, these are the long term trend lines for both silver and gold you see acting as support here.  

My thinking is either these hold up for a nice bounce, or we have continue failure.  Whichever the ultimate course, you can see there’s a pretty clear indication of where you should set your stops.

(For the Mexican and other “special” Olympians, that’d below the trend line)

I think we’ve a good chance for at least a tradeable bounce here, but what the hell do I know?   You pays the lady, you takes your chances…  What I do know is that gold and silver are going to be the beneficiaries of an inflationary Fed policy, and we are still in the early innings.   There will be brutal shifts like we’ve seen in the years ahead, but an accumulative policy (at least 10% of the portfolio) is a wise course, in my humblest.

Here’s [[GLD]] with the clear trend line touch:

And here’s [[SLV]] .  Again, similar trend line, similar touch and (temporary?) rebound:

Best to you all, Ciao.

 

 

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