Greetings from Vacationland

That’s marketing for you.  Take a state with no industry, few people, freezing cold ocean water with a rocky frozen coast overgrown with pine trees and about three weeks of reasonably warm weather a year and give it the name nickname “Vacationland,” and dumb Northeastern “hardy-type” fuckers will be all over it.

I think they’re nuts, but what do I know, I enjoy warm weather during the Summer months.  In the meantime, both my wife and I have more family up here than we care to admit to in “respectable” circles.   So here I am, with my mittens off for a second.

  At least the internet access is a little more convenient than in Lawn Guyland, where “grandparent activities” and beach frolicking cut into my ability to post like a coked up Ebay trader (a la GreenMan).   I make no excuses for my frippery, and Skateboardin’ Dan can go squeeze a sexually suggestive eggplant substitute. 

On to bidness…

Here’s a stock very dear to my heart, as it’s been in the family for a long time.  In my opinion it’s a “blue chipper” that ought to be in the Dow 30.   United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] has only been public for less than ten years, however, and perhaps those Dow Dicks need to have a little bit more “tenure” for their publicly traded members, even if UPS has been around for over 100 years, as of earlier this year.  

In any case, UPS is a great proxy for the economy, even moreso maybe, than the Transport Index [[TRAN]] .  UPS flies and trucks more basic retail and bullshit packages to more people than anyone else by far, and their business health reflects the health of the overall consumer economy.    High gas prices?  UPS trucks and planes get more expensive.   Less available consumer cash (via savings or credit)?  Less bullshit packages getting sent from Grandma to little Johnny, and thus less visits from the nice man with the brown shorts and Teva’s.   It’s not advanced mathematics.  

Here’s the weekly chart, and as you can tell, it’s not very pretty.   UPS has had a rebound along with the rest of the “hoped for” bull market, but is stalling right at it’s intermediate “line of death” right on schedule.  Aren’t these weeklies great for the “step back” view of what’s really going on, ovah heah?

 Know this, I will never sell my UPS, and in fact will be looking to add to it again, at first opportunity.   But I believe that opportunity will be in the low $50’s.   In the meantime, I am “double hedged” via short calls and long dated puts.    I plan to take that hedge cash and push it back into more UPS in the coming months.  

Here’s the chart, for your viewing pleasure (remember to click twice to get the full view):

 

Off to “dig clams” in my Patagonia sweater or some hardy shit like that.  Ciao.

 

 

 

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