Think about it. What has a bigger element of surprise? Unexpectedly low GDP or In-line/Good GDP? It is the latter. In other words, bears have more to lose in an upward momentum environment. Lot of people are pressing their shorts right now in the final hour. Imagine the short squeeze tomorrow morning should we get anywhere between 1.6% (expected) or above.
StocksRider
Good point. With market sentiment turning, in this environment, the surprises are typically going to be to the upside. Not always, but often enough to bankrupt some zealous bears.
My piker view-
Unless the numbers are horrific, they will be spun to the positive and the market will rally.
If sentiment is truly turning bearish, slightly poor numbers could be the catalyst for the end of the September rally.
Shit, if self proclaimed pikers agree with me, then I am rolling with the popular consensus. That’s not good. Lets hope you are one of the very few.
My position (also noob) has been for several days now that the market will continue to move generally up, unless there is some bad news. So, if the numbers tomorrow don’t provide that (and they COULD), we’ll probably punch through 1150, which will cause a lot of short covering I think, which will punch us higher, and then all bets are off. If the numbers are good, I’m going all-in TNA..
Thanks for the insight SR. I’ve really been enjoying your posts this month.
Thanks Kenai! Tomorrow I will be back in PG land. Hope to see you there as well.
I’ll be there with bells on. 🙂
As expected the GDP did give the initial rocket boost to stocks. But we went back down with end of quarter activity most likely being the culprit. And now we are back up. Aside from all this, one of my longs JASO is ripping tits in this rally. Up 170% on Oct calls. Will be selling into the close half of the calls to lock in gains. I provide all my trade updates close to real time on Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/stocksrider
GDP estimates have been revised down all quarter. Today’s number was an upside surprise to a revised down number. Jobs were better but not great. At the very least this market is extended…though it can get more extended.
Exactly. The GDP estimate was already revised lower. It was quite possible to meet the lower revised estimate. Hence there was more chance of surprise being to the upside. The markets are getting towards extended no doubt. Momentum is still carrying the markets though. That being said, it is time to start putting stops beginning next week.