I think I might be pressing my luck today. I have performed near perfectly selling my longs in the morning and loading up on leveraged bear ETFs. I’m a little nervous about being short here because I know some very very smart people that are looking for a bounce very soon. But then I look at price action in recent leaders BIDU, LULU, PCLN and the shenanigans involved with DGIT and CHBT. I’m pretty confused but as of right now I’m on the right side of the trade, but I’m very cautious.
I am pissed that NFLX is only down 2 bucks today.
You would think GOOG putting its balls on the block of online pay-per-view movie alongside AMZN AAPL etc would hit NFLX today…
I think IBD100 buyers are supporting NFLX. See ARUN.
Everyone’s chirping the same story of declines coming through…
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) –Only 5.78b shrs changed hands today
vs 2010 avg of 9.085b and 3-mo. avg of 8.33b shrs
Aug. 9 was prior 2010 low of 5.845b shrs
I suspect that once this market gains traction either through 1040 or above 1060, it’s off to the races as the sideline money will jump back in. Factor in Yen/Bond movement and where they’re more likely to head next and I suspect a rally is on the horizon. Also throw in the presidential cycle data which adds to the bullish cause. I believe it’s in the democrat’s best interests to see the market rise from here.
Thoughts?
Yeah, I see the bull case which is why I’m simply trading w/short bias at these levels. I’m primarily a contra-trend trader but I’ve learned there isn’t reason to be contrarian just for the sake of being different, only when consensus is disconnected with reality.
on volume – two thoughts from bear case – 1. last week of vacation. most are going to enjoy it. 2. bear market. heavy volume will be in up days with drawn out fades.
BTW, if you look at midterms, they are historically bad for the market. I agree with assessment on government support… fascism usually wins.
definitely cautious. good luck