Time for Succession

I was put on my guard this morning when, amongst a sea of red tape, my dog treaded through to reality, limping.  It seems my West Highland Terrier, while outside, took a stumble and injured his rear left leg; invoking a sudden panic in me which, two hours and fifty dollars later, revealed itself to be a shallow tissue injury like a bruise or sprain.  Still, I was nothing if not relieved (I would easily value my dog’s life at least on par with any of yours, and that should not be meant as an insult; he is a terrific and intelligent friend) and was met, just minutes ago, with a large run in oil, dragging the overall markets higher.

So I suppose today will be a turnaround.  Good, I really don’t feel like having a bad day.

Sadly, for those of you who are lost and look in these blogs for advice, I have little to give today.  I don’t feel like buying anything, don’t want to sell short, and am quite thoroughly invested beyond my principle such that, even if I did desire to do the prior things, I would not likely be able to.  Only selling positions remains an open option to me, and feeling quite comfortable with the ones I have amassed, I’m not willing to let any slip away.

Only GKK remains as what I would label risky and it is such a small position (somewhere between 3-4% of my overall positions) that I just don’t care what happens to it.  I really expect this stock to perform better than RSO has of late, and I’m comfortable enough with her books to tuck her away, out of sight and mind, until sometime midway through 2010.

I cashed out of my scraps of VCGH for a 5% gain.  Hurray, it has no impact on my portfolio!  I could have made 300% and it wouldn’t have translated to a meaningful gain.  But to hell with it, it kept my hands busy whereas were they idle I would have been tempted to do something stupid.  I suppose I’ll treat my family to a nice dinner complimented with some delicacy for dessert; I have a wonderfully thick and strong cherry dessert wine in my cellar that would accompany truffles or other such chocolate dishes magnificently.

Despite a few missteps towards the beginning of September, this month proved to be a veritable gold mine.  I made an exceptional amount of wealth in such substantiable names as SLB, BHI, and RMCF, and recovered losses from NRP; earned profits in a quick short maneuver against NOV, and saw grand appreciation from an unforeseen run in RSO.  Of course, my physical holdings of silver have been on a tear as well.  All in all, this was a quality month to invest in, made more so by borrowing a broad range of credit.

In this last week, I have held all positions while, as mentioned earlier, maneuvering credit to reduce interest and cut out one of the parties involved.  This was made possible thanks to the RSO development.  I’m still holding a massive chunk of reserve borrowings, just in case we should see a sudden run downward of sufficient magnitude to justify mass purchasing.  My target for such behavior would be more associable with a 10%+ reduction of average pricing, a number derived from, and specifically for, my current situation.

I was hoping to submit a piece on logic and its application to predictive methods like time series analysis or TA; namely, why maneuvers from the Fed have rendered such techniques borderline useless.  Specifically, this piece would approach the subject from an angle I would expect you, my audience, are uncomfortable with; analyzing groups and group behavior.  However, I didn’t have time to do so before my reign as King comes to an end later tonight.  Therefore, it will have to wait until sometime in the near future.

Gentlemen, I hope you have all experienced as sumptuous a month as I.  I’ve enjoyed being King and look forward to such honors in the future.  Be sure to look for me on the horizon.

With best wishes,

Mr. Cain Hammond Thaler

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