Equity Markets: Technical Update (11-17-08)

If you day traded today, then you know what I talking about. Today was a day of wearing out traders and washing them out. The path toward the rising wedge/funnel created a major problem for shorts. I issued a “short” order at 10:15AM and a “Hedge” order at 11:12AM for when the SPX hits 865. This type of pattern showed from the very beginning that price exhaustion is occurring, and it was nothing to fear. However, anything could have happened. I utilized extensive hedging techniques today, more any other day this month. At 1:01PM, a “100% Short” order was issued and all hedges to be sold. A 2:15PM order went out to cut short positions and hedge once again. At 2:28PM, another “100% Short” order was released. At 3:15PM a “Neutral” order was issued and finally at 3:38PM, a “75% Short” order was issued. The frequency of trading shows what type of day it was – a nimble one.

Looking at 3-day charts, these daily patterns are not very bullish at all. We are closer to testing the Friday lows. Intra-day I made use of the fib retracement levels during the wedge’s progression, another tool to keep yourself from panicking. The very long neutral range was especially problem due to false breakouts and breakdowns. If you tried to play every peak and trough, you definitely lost money. I was looking for what happened in the last 10 minutes all day long. Sometimes, patterns do not breakdown as quickly as anticipated. We are currently at support levels, and bounces should be expected. It’s easy riding the market down (if you’re short), but if you can’t handle the pullbacks, then don’t trade. In any case, this was one of the more difficult days to trade. Today, I made enough to pay for a steak dinner, for one, and that’s about it.

SPX 1-day

SPX 3-day

SPX 6-month

NASDAQ 1-day

NASDAQ 3-day

NASDAQ 6-month

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