Outside my door it is foggy and the threat of thunder storms and hail is approaching.
Some would say this is what the market is forecasting as investors gear up for earnings season. [[AA]] said their profits fell 24% and that input costs would blow for future quarterly results. The street feels their guidance may be high, but for now they will trade it up since they beat lowered guidance.
Use AA as a guide today. If it shoots higher and then reverses for negative ground this may telegraph the markets itself.
For now I have some buys or additions on hold. I’m looking for follow through with some volatility today. Of course follow through to the upside. Over the next few days of trade I’d like to see the S&P climb over 1283. I feel this is a crucial hurdle for the market to get over.
As for Iran and oil, fuck’em both. I believe oil will continue to fade the anxiety or geo- political risk at hand. Oil still needs to break $134 on the downside to be real convincing that a downward trend is in place. Don’t forget oil inventory numbers @ 10:30 am.
GLT
by GW
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latest investors intelligence numbers show greatest number of bears since 1995 and lowest number of bulls since 1994. keep the faith.
AA almost a dollar off it’s morning pop. Chivas, you were around in 73-74. The bear ratios were way high all through that period.
In order to keep the faith I must be short. I currently have no shorts.
While my outlook is negative at best, I’m not one for trading in my lifestyle to live in a cave.
For instance if Peak oil is true then won’t the entire stock market crumble? If it is true I believe man’s ingenuity will prevail.
Jake,
i was, but imo comparing 73-74 to now is like comparing day to night. remember the following from that period.
1- nifty 50. overvaluation extreme
2- middle east war with israel
3- actual gas lines
4- price control
5- world monetary system collapse brent woods
6- impeachment of president
7 viet nam
just a few quick items that come to mind.