[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAkoYcfDmrk 450 300]

Wait for 1:43 for the transcendent beauty to begin.   Then go out and procure your child cello lessons.

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Who’s sick of this damn winter already? I sure am.   Someone sold me a story about moving to the South some years ago, but I think I’m going to apply for a refund.  We had zero snow last year (sticking wise) and I bet we’ve had 25-30 inches this year.   And the cold!  The damnable cold!   I could almost handle the snow if it didn’t come with this extra serving of Canadian Clipper.  

Enough already! 

But that brings me to a super nova of my own making.  It’s called my portfolio, and you are welcome to bask in it’s awesome radiation.   The dollar (DXY) is down 17 cent to $80.16 (use [[UUP]] as your proxy here), and the price of gold (“POG”) is up well over $1,100 to $1,109.10.    If we get to $1,120 on the POG, we will be off to the races.

Mind you, I think we’re already off.   I’m already locked and loaded, and if you’ve been following this blog over the last three plus weeks, you’re likely ready as well.   If not, and you’re still looking for some last minute shopping, here again are my two favourites (sic)…

First the Gold Standard, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] :

Note, I’m using the weekly’s here because these are long termers for me.  You can also see that the last two weeks has been giving us the signal in both names.  

My silver goddess has been and continues to be Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .   This chart is even prettier than the previous:

It’s late so I’ll bid you adieu.   Here’s to a great week, and a great month in the PM’s.    These gems are just two of many that I believe will run in the next several weeks.  I also look for Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] on the gold front, and [[EXK]] , [[SVM]] and [[PAAS]] on the silver.

Best to you all.

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 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ERnT1X9HPw 450 300]

A Song for the Times?
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Well, so much for Helicopter Ben’s New York Times- abetted “tightening” kabuki theater act.

Did you enjoy it?  I hear he’s been studying at the New School.

I dunno, maybe the guys down at Goldman called Bernanke up last night and asked him for some help in getting out of their Euro shorts, since DXY (sorry, no quote yet — see? [[DXY]] ) had run up to about $80.30 today by lunch time, only to tuck tail and (Black?) swan dive right back down to $80 flat just in time for Benjamin’s Jawboning routine at 2:15 pm. 

That particular bit of mummery and prestidigitation must’ve in turn convinced at least one or two bag-holding kaftan merchants from Milwaukee to buy dollars again, because the dollar index got all the way to $80.10 by late afternoon, giving us all that familiar “blah” feeling at the close.

All pretense seems to have dropped away after the stock mavens went home, however, and the dollar is now (as of 12:36 am Eastern) trading back down to yesterday’s low’s at about $79.74, looking at a “next stop” of about $79.50, and then $79 even.     Party on, Garth (and Darth… Vadon, that is).

These incipient moves should be enough to get our rally on in the gold and silver sector, not to mention our other hard currency equivalents including earl, natural gas, and the specialty metals.   I was extremely busy today and I apologize, but my punishment was not being able to add much to the portfolio, although I would’ve loved to finish my Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] accumulation today.   I am quite sure it will be more dear tomorrow.  

I was able to add 60 more June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $5.80.   They were a standing order, and I think I may have been able to get them even cheaper, but beggars, chooser, etc. etc.   I now have total 120 of those $40 June strike calls, and I think I’m done there.  

 The rest of my exposure will remain in liquid equities, and I hope to add to positions tomorrow in the usual suspects, and perhaps some NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] .   I also like Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] ‘s relative strength as of late.  

For silver I may dip my toe in the Chanci selection — [[SVM]] , as I’ve admired their price action recently.  I may also look to grab some additional [[PAAS]] .   If [[CDE]] stalls in the early trade, I may also add to that one.

Platinum is reviving tonight along with its brethren, so don’t forget about [[PTM]] and [[PAL]] . 

On the non-precious side, I may grab some [[ERX]] for a ride similar to that of [[AGQ]] .   I also continue to like Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] and Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] .    I also happen to think SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] is undervalued here, and it is a perennial favourite (sic) of The PPT .

Last, don’t forget Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] in the specialty metal names, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , as their lithium is a bargain here as well.    I expect tomorrow will be a good day for we merry shipmates of the U.S.S Jackson.

All aboard!

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In fact, it may only be around temporarily this morning, but silver has dropped about 1% this morning in early trading (due to a slight uptick in the dollar) while gold has held pretty much flat. That puts our new Gold/Silver ration at a hair over 67.2x , and I So I’m going to take this opportunity to load up on some more select names in bullion [[AGQ]] — and in miners, with [[EXK]] , [[SVM]] , [[CDE]] , [[PAAS]] and yes, even Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] again.

I will not be pulling the trigger all at once, as I would like to see if we get more dollar strength in the day, but given the strength of gold in this downdraft, I don’t believe this divergence will hold for very long. Either gold will drop down to a low 60’s POG/POS ratio, or silver will rise. In either case, I think our safer bet will be silver again.

Also, I may dabble in some more [[PTM]] here, which has shown very good relative strength through this whole dollar strenghthening period, as has the platinum/palladium miner [[PAL]] .

Best to you all.

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Krull Leaves the Poker Game for a Quick Smoke Break
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Up 3% yesterday, even with all my hedges still in place, I must bow to the volcanic power of the precious metal rebound we experienced yesterday.

That doesn’t mean I’m abandoning my post on the 12th slippery rung of the main municipal sewer — the cosy seat next to the extrusion pipe but before the extrusion weld.   No, I’m still expecting a pullback today from yesterday’s Ode to Joy/Bunny Rabbit Massacre, unbounded. 

But the dollar (seen on the intraday as [[UUP]] or DXY) still continues to fall off here, and I’m wondering if we will ever get back up to that $80.10 or so pivot (on DXY)  I’d talked about as a trigger for another downturn last week.    I won’t be surprised, however, if we get another exogenous shock out of Davos, the PIIG’s or even President Obama’s recently unveiled near $4 trillion FrankenBudget. 

For now, I’m liking what works on the rebound, and thus far, it’s the fast movers of the junior golds like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and “the X-factor” — Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] .   I also like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] of course, and Lindsay made a nice rec yesterday on the nicely pivoting Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] .

Of course silver is my true Tsar Bomba play in 2010, as it has been lagging the 2009 move in gold, along with platinum [[PTM]] , Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and palladium [[PAL]] .   Right now, in this first updraft, I like the double silver play [[AGQ]] a whole lot, and of course my core group of miners — in order — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , [[SVM]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and the lowly Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

All of these should be gnawed at opportunistically, as one would a bread wheel from the boulangerie, deep under the steam pipes of Manhattan.

I am still not taking down my hedges (in  [[SPY]] puts and [[QID]] and [[BZG]] ), and will happily bleed money on them here, as that insurance policy has served me well these last weeks.   Nothing could please me more than taking them down at lower balances, however, as that would mean all of my other plays are working well, as they did yesterday.

Don’t forget about the banks, here, as they’ve never really suffered much of a pullback, even in last week’s deluge.  Today, they seem to be leading the red dogs, which may turn out to be an opportunity for you.   Again, I like BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] for the longer term hold, Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] for the Ohio pop, and Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] for the lotto play (stay small and remember, it’s only a game).

Best to you all, First Amendment scholars.

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No, it’s not what you think.   I’m talking about  a jump to value ovah heah.  

Getting ready to add even more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] this morning at $14.87 (announced on The PPT yesterday) as I have a longer term buy-stop in at that level.   Also liking Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at these ridiculous levels as well.  

The one thing that’s great — and horrifying – -about these PM miner markets is that  you are never really “out of the game” until that final ridiculous blow-off top.   There’s almost always an opportunity to grab shares cheap thanks to the high volatility, and more important, low float aspect of these markets.

I am hoping for a nice hard sell off into the 10 o’clock time frame.  Hard enough to make one’s kidney’s seize up like they’ve got hold of a spot of rancid hot cawfee.  

I want to buy into that fear this morning.   I am putting on the armor of steely determination now.   

For your bennies, I’ll be looking at the gems — not only the above mentioned two, but Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and yes, Chanci, even [[SVM]] for the first time for me.

Don’t forget also about the bank stocks I’ve mentioned — BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] , PNC Financial Services [[PNC]] , Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] , Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] (watch for earnings on this last), and the two LED sweeties — Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] .

Last, note the ags are again on the march.  My favourites here are The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] and of course, the Franken-Corn Friends at Monsanto Company [[MON]] .

I hope to have more for you later….  Hit ’em low and hard.

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I knew I shouldn’t have shorted SLV!
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Shorting silver in a plunging dollar market with gold on the move is almost as dumb as “going for it” on 4th and 2 on your own 28 , about two minutes to go and with the lead.

Heck, maybe it’s even more dumb. At least Belichick– with his multiple Lombardi Trophy mantle display– had an excuse to feel arrogant about his low-percentage play-calling. The silver bears, who were gold bears before that and stock bears before even that had no call to compound mistake after mistake by risking the last remnants of their capital on such an audacious call.

And now they are paying for it, or to be more incisive — paying me. [[AGQ]] which you recall I added when I heard that the “Reverse Lock” was shorting silver, is up another 1000 basis points this morning. I can’t imagine what that’s doing to the leveraged short ursines, but it’s gotta be something close to being drawn, quartered and then lightly salted/lightly peppered before being chucked on the grill, marbled T-bone style.

Amazingly, silver has decided to catch up to gold this morning, with an over one dollar move (price of silver is up $1.02 cents as I type this, or 5.9%) today, the silver to gold ratio now stands at a stunningly low 62x, down from 64x as of late last week.

Gee, I wonder if that move to rationality is going to continue (remember, gold is continuing to rise as well)?

You’ve seen this list before, but at the risk of boring you, go get ’em:

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] [[PAAS]] [[EXK]] Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] [[CDE]] Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] And a new one I haven’t talked much about — [[SVM]] .

Don’t forget about the pure bullion plays either. [[SLV]] is one time and [[AGQ]] is two.

Happy hunting, and watch for pullbacks. We are parabolizing here, so I am talking off the rest of my call positions today.

Best to you all.
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Addendum: Platinum is another precious metal in “catch up” mode. I’ve banged the drum on [[PTM]] enough times that you should have at least a little. This should be a continuing move, here, however. I am also considering, but have not yet bot [[PAL]] , which is a dodgy stock even in the best of times.

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