[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgwJJ3pXvOw 450 300]

(Appropos of nothing, really)

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I don’t even know why I attempt to suggest other varietals.   Is it the desire to be au courant?  The obligation to entertain?  Devil-may-care hair in the wind type stuff?

I don’t know, but really… it’s just plain silly.  There’s a single bull market at play here, and this is what we are about.   I had a bunch of positions take egregious losses today, most notably those in the “hot but not” LED space, like CREE and (worse) VECO.    POWR hung tight, but I can’t imagine that nasty Friday WSJ article will leave it be, either. 

I even took a small bit of VECO off today, in the mid-33’s, because I figured it would be a while until I saw that position back in the drivers seat.    No matter, as I bought more AGQ with the proceeds and promptly saw it rise a buck and a half (to $60 a share).  Is there anything more exciting than having one’s steed cut down from underneath one in the midst of pitched battle, only to find a stronger charger at the ready?

That is why I was not down today, despite egregiousity in the above names and even some other hard metals like TC and TCK.  It was all due to the gorgeous strength of our gold and silver portfolio.    I speak primarily of the silver miners, including SLW, PAAS, EXK, SVM, MVG, CDE, SSRI and HL.   But the gold’s included prized champions like RGLD, ANV, EGO and IAG, who were stalwarts too.   

Note how the $HUI index held up today on the weekly:

Am I wearing cats’ pajamas or is that thing looking like it wants $520?   You tell me.

Then there’s one of my favourites, ANV.   She’s just been a trooper since we picked it up just under $6 last year, and is seeming to have no trouble moving on three times that size.  Note that strong weekly consolidation?

 

And the daily looks just as promising, after a decent pullback:

Another promising pick, and one I should leave alone and go macrame a duvet, or something “crafty” like that.  God knows I’m only dangerous going outside my “comfort zone” in the PM world, and He surely sent me a signal today.

May be time to re-assess and de-stress.   Real money is coming back into vogue once again.

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Yeah, there are a lot of silver eggs breaking out, but why not play off the Easter theme and show how [[PAAS]]  is bouncing off both excellent (and reliable) trendline and moving average support lines?

Look at these here eggs!

Silver is over $18.00 tonight and I expect more from [[SLV]] and [[AGQ]] tomorrow.  But in the long run, you are best off with the people that pull this beautiful, most useful metal out of the earth.

That’s Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[SVM]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]  and of course E8’s [[MVG]] — a most excellent call.

Gold will blow out in unison, but as always, Silver is the high beta T-Rex.  

Best to you all.

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“More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” — Allan Stewart Konigsberg
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Woody Allen once said “80% of success is just showing up.” To some extent that’s true, as reliability is an attribute valued across a wide spectrum of employers, friends, relatives, lovers, etc.

Why do you think [[MCD]] sells so many Happy Meals? Because their burgers are made of some top quality succulent sirloin? No, it’s because the little kid in us knows we are going to get the same overdone blandburger-and-salty-fry combination every time, and that’s comforting.

So too, the comfort of a trending market soothes the savage breast of the coked-out daytrader in all of us. But even a long term trending market is not without it’s harrowing pullbacks and trials of faith. For that we need perspective, humility, and in the end, endurance.

Endurance and a willingness to sit and wait for the trade to come to you are the key to the type of long term wealth accumulation we like to talk about here. Remember how scary gold looked a few weeks back, when we thought maybe the bull had finally tapped and the dollar was re-ascendant? Note how I said the 34-week had been a great place to buy in the past, despite the strength of the dollar? Look at the dollar gold chart I’d shown you a few weeks back:

As in the past, the 34 week Exponential Moving Average (“EMA”) has been a reliable signal in this uptrend (all but for the one dreadful period at the end of 2008, where the 200 wk EMA was the stopper).    Note in this next “nine year bull” chart how reliable the signal has been, and also, how it seems the “touches” are starting to get farther apart.  

 I’m not sure what to make of this “touch extension” business, but I will point out that as bull markets enter their parabolic stages, they tend to spend longer and longer periods above the common daily and weekly moving average “rest-stops”  (ie, 20, 50 and 200-day on the daily and 13, 34 and 200 week on the weeklies).  

I am of the mind that our hard earned endurance will pay off here, friends, and the dollar will soon break down again, and that should push our gold:dollar ration back over $14 again, to the great chagrin of metallic ursines the world over, but especially those on the upper Left Coast.     

For turnaround Toosdee (sic), I would expect further deterioration in [[UUP]] , and therefore highly recommend a late day grab of some Fronteer Development Group Inc. (USA) [[FRG]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and [[SVM]] .

I also believe Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] is almost done pulling back, and it should move above $70 this week, as the market continues to roll over wide-eyed, squatting Kodiaks.  As a consequence, Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] is also worth a look.

Best to you all, fellow Konigsbergs.

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Helpless Feeb Trading, FTW! (Or Not)
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I don’t usually go for the whole gloating thing, as it’s unkind, and generally karmically challenging.

I’ll make an exception this one time, however.  Call it karmic recognition if you will.   Much to the cognitively challenged’s chagrin, [[SLV]] is triumphant once again, after many weeks of representing second place to Canadians and other luge and curling aficionados.

The dollar index, [[DXY]] , is back below $80.00, currently trading at $79.86. It’s proxy [[UUP]] is below a significant (61.8%) intermediate term Fibonacci line ($23.52), and looks to be heading towards $23.13, it’s next support.

Many of my compatriots are short or heavily in cash. Small traders have one of the lowest call positions recorded since last March’s lows. People cannot believe this market can go up. In short– It’s a basket weaver’s market, and I’ve just finished a fine set of cane-rush patio chairs.

I’d like [[AGQ]] to stay above $55.02, and [[EXK]] to stay above $3.36 first, and then $3.61 second.   Near term target is $3.76, but I’m holding for the long term.  [[SVM]] is approaching a very important 61.8% fib line at $6.99, and if it should break it (I don’t think it will on first try, frankly) then it should run right to it’s recent highs at $8.00.    Last, [[PAAS]] is good to go over $22.35, and it’s next stop should be in the $26.50 recent high area.

My favourite, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is labouring (sic) on low volume here, and needs to get above $15.95 in order to “release” to the recent highs of $17.80.   It bears watching, while bears are watching.

Here’s what’s giving me hope for a bullish continuation even amidst the ursinity of my peers… The Russell (I use RUT or [[IWM]] to track it) is breaking out ahead of the [[SPY]] .     If the [[DJT]] and it’s representative United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] can continue north and break above recent highs, then I will have further comfort.

Until then, please be sure to purchase plenty of technical trading books.  Those authors need to eat, too, you know.

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We be coursin’ out o’ the far lip o’ the storm and here it tis at her strongest.    With the power o’ yon circlin’ vortex, it will try to drag ye to yer briny doom deep in the cold confines o’ Davey Jones’ Locker.   Take heed, lads!

Make an eye on yon dollar representative [[UUP]] — note how he’s strooglin’ and dancin’ like a half-mad murth’rous boocaneer at the end o’ a strip of fine English gallows hemp?    He’s tryin’ tah break ye lads, and his murth’rous brither, $DXY has shot all it’s grape over $81.00 as oirly as this morn!     They’re after ye traisure lads, as shore as I was born a palsied pain and boirnin’ boyle to the British Empire’s arse!

Aim yer guns down, lads, right below the waterline of yon King’s Federal Admiralty First Rater, the H.M.S. BernYankme, for her three decks are festooned with dollar cannon, ready to sink ye with all hands aboard, and yor sparkly traisure o’ silver and gold as well!   

But beware the storm that assists yon bewigged and brass-buttoned scurvy Federal Redcoats, blowin’ out of the South Mediterannean, and the Aegean Sea.   Tis driving the dollar to new highs against the warped and besotted Euro.   Fill the lifeboats with [[DRR]] and other provisions such as meat pasties and cane sugar.   Despite the dollar tide being up near a full 100 basis points, [[GLD]] and even [[SLV]] are riding the storm well, which gives me good cheer, even as my cutlass runs red down it’s fuller, and my beard sizzles with ball and gunpowder.

[[SVM]] and [[PAAS]] which were laggards last week, seem to be holding out the best in the silver circus.   [[EXK]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] and [[CDE]] are next in line, with my favourite (sic) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] taking the worst of the tsunami wave for the rest of her crew.   

The cautious among ye will await the drop o’ DXY below the $81.00 sea line.   At that point, I think even the Treasury Bane [[TBT]] will be boardable without fear of it becoming a Jonah.   Me three favourite golds, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] seem to be holding up in that order as well.

Hold hard mates, I see a calm horizon when this sqall be done.

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Avast Ye Steam-punk Scalawags!
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Looks like the bewigged and wedge-shoed scarlet coats of the Federal Admiralty have thrown down their first frilly gauntlet and taken a shot across our portside bow last evening with a cannon-load of “hot grape” called “quarter point discount rate increase,” in the less civilized quarters of New Orleans and other pirate dens.

Powdered pooftahs that they are, they are already begging our mercy come the morn as we swing our starboard cannon about to rake their pommy sides amid-ships.    Too late for them, and theirs, I’m afraid, as there’s gold in those Admiralty cargo holds and we mean to have it.

Let’s not get all a-sweat and a-lathered, me scurvy dogs.   The thesis has not changed and certainly the Fed is not going to take the “brave man’s step” of setting the Caribbean afire with rum-soaked English scrip whilst our Parliament (of Whores) continues to spend like grog-stupefied wainwrights on barrel-selling day.    No, maties, they seek to confound us with this Mary-move of callow authority.   No man can call his actions bold while pleading apology in the next breath!  

If anything, said grape-shot toss was mere subtrafuge to cover for additional scrip production in yonder Admiralty’s subterranean printing gaols!  What will occupy the Admiralty’s cargo holds for years — baser and baser scrip — will be what ensures our golden Treasures worth! 

So be not a-feared but rather emboldened by the tightness of Rear Admiral Bernanke’s wedgies, and the sagging of his pompadour.  Now is the time to press the hot cutlass to their throats and let roar with musket, grape and cannon.   The battle is near-won, me swabbies.   Let us not then quail at the size of the Admiralty’s frigates, but rather laugh at their frailty — they are made of paper, lads!

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This day I shall be indulging in all me favourites, but  most especially those in the silver Escudo doubloons, for the price of bonnie silver is racing back up even faster than that of gold.    To that end I shall be indulging in me favourite miners, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[SVM]] , [[PAAS]] and maybe even the worm-bitten dogs [[CDE]] and Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .   [[AGQ]] is only for the traders, but it may boom off of any pullback here.

Don’t forget me favourite golds either, which number three — Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   Some dogs that may be opportunities thanks to yesterday’s scare off  could be New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , along with Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] and even [[BAA]] .  Of course [[GDX]] is a great purchase if you want a catch all.

I also think the Ag side will continue to stay hot, so any weakness in Monsanto Company [[MON]] , The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , and Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] should be seen as an opportunity.  I will likely have more to say on this front.   

Many of you may have seen I chose Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] as my March Madness pick (SLW is too volatile).   I like it and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] as my two hottest tech names for the intermediate to long term (the only way I play).  

Best to you all, my hearties, and if anything today — WATCH SILVER — something seems to be “up.”

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