Again, there’s no need for braggadocio.  It’s too early yet.

Let’s just recognize that there will be pullbacks, perhaps as soon as this week.   Those pullbacks may take the form of consolidations, or real live gut-rippers like we experienced in rocket ship IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] last Friday.   Take a look at my notes on the Jacksons for further guidance. 

Important to note, however, that we’ve broken out of the long term triangle on the $HUI, and out of the recent June highs, with a close over $409 on Friday.   Next targets are $475 and the old highs of $525.   I am firmly convinced we’ll see both those levels well before Christmas.  This should drive the Jacksons for the remainder of the year, and I think there’s ample room for continued participation here.

Remember this chart from a couple of days back? 

Well, look where we’ve come in two short weeks:

My favourite (sic) non-Jacksons include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]  and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] on the gold side and [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver.   I really like the free air on the CDE side.   It could go to the low forties with very little resistance now that it’s broken out of it’s May closing highs.

Here’s the weekly Jackson review… note the monthly is higher than the weekly in this first week of September, because August 31’st was such a down day for many Jacksons.

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	28-Aug	4-Sep	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        32.92	$      32.34	-1.76%		$             9,764	-0.10%		Still looking for the break of $33. Soon!
EGO	10.56	11.21	6.16%		$           10,504	0.39%		$11.50 is BTFO target
GDX	40.18	45.02	12.05%		$           13,626	0.98%		Look for pullback this week. BO>$45.25
GLD	93.87	97.53	3.90%		$           11,217	0.26%		Looking for $100.
IAG	12.02	13.84	15.14%		$           17,065	1.55%		In BTFO territory, and consolidating BO.
MON	83.00	82.24	-0.92%		$           13,047	-0.07%		Coiling on low volume
PAAS	19.99	22.45	12.31%		$           13,483	0.99%		BO out of triangle. Pullback level – 21.50
RGLD	39.95	45.98	15.09%		$           12,705	1.15%		Massive two day BO.  Next target $48.65
SLV	14.50	15.97	10.14%		$           12,973	0.79%		Broke weekly DT, over 15.75 resistance
SLW	10.45	11.59	10.91%		$           11,258	0.74%		Massive BO.  Next target $14.
SSRI	18.28	21.09	15.37%		$           12,269	1.13%		Needs $21.50 for BO level
TBT	46.74	47.70	2.05%		$             9,502	0.12%		Bounced from $45 low, now over $47.20 again
TC	11.98	11.89	-0.75%		$             9,787	-0.04%		May have bottomed at $11
TCK	25.20	24.36	-3.33%		$           23,505	-0.47%		May have bottomed at $22.05
Cash (000)	$        0.00	$    12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Same
AVG (weekly)			5.67%		$       193,350	7.41%
AVG (monthly)			7.88%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			32.81%		on cash return	28.90%

Best to you this week, and watch for pullbacks!

___________________

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I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

Thomas Jefferson, – “O.J.” — the Original Jackson (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)

______________________________________________

With this quote in mind, I want to again call to your attention that we are approaching the “August to Christmas” gold run, which generally includes a concurrent run in the gold and silver miners, as represented by the [[HUI]] index.   Almost every year in the oughts since 2000 has reflected this run, save of course last year, when we experienced a 28% loss due to a mass liquidation of all assets.

As reflected in the 2007 portion of the following chart, you can see the $HUI broke over 67% in the August to December period.   Note that a return to the old highs ($525) would only require a 44% run from these levels.

____________________
 
I believe we should see a relatively rapid progression when this thing gets moving — from $375 to the June highs (about $405) and then very possibly back to our pre-crash ’08 old highs in the $525 area.  That kind of progression in the $HUI should mean good things for all of our precious Jacksons, including Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , our leveraged royalty play in Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and our gold ETF [[GDX]] whose $34 strike options I purchased last week for September expiry.

A strong $HUI will mean even better things for the silver Jacksons, as the price of gold is still well over the historic 40x silver “norm” at nearly 65x today.   Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is my number one pick in this space, but  [[PAAS]] and even relative laggard Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] should be strong in this coming period.

As for non-Jacksons, I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite the recent dilution, and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] all look good from the junior gold side, and of course [[EXK]]   and [[CDE]] on the silver side.   I will also throw Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] out as a possibility because it tends to jump in “hot” precious markets.   Be warned, however, this last is a “trade only” position, and not one to keep even one day past its expiration date. 

If you want to buy and hold, stick with the Jacksons and a well diversified pool of juniors… one or two of those will be “lotto tickets” and the rest will be largely crap, but you will be happy for the lotto wins nonetheless. 

No excuses, ladies and gents.  It’s “sarious” (sic) time.  See you at the finish line.
_________________________________________

I know I haven’t given you a Jacksonian update in a while, so here’s last week’s results.  Note the bludgeoning in Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] due to the UBS (curse them) “bought deal” which means a “sold short” deal to those who are already holders.  No matter, once this overhead is sopped up, TC will move again, as will Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] .  Get these while they are cheap.

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	21-Aug	28-Aug	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        28.20	$      32.92	16.74%		$             9,940	1.00%		Big volume leap Friday. $33 is break.
EGO	11.02	10.56	-4.17%		$             9,895	-0.25%		Riding 20-day (10.49) on coil now.
GDX	39.30	40.18	2.24%		$           12,161	0.16%		Moving out of consolidation zone (>$40)
GLD	93.65	93.87	0.23%		$           10,796	0.02%		Coming out of coil as well, needs $95.50
IAG	11.93	12.02	0.75%		$           14,821	0.07%		Looks to test new highs (12.36+) this wk.
MON	83.78	83.00	-0.93%		$           13,168	-0.07%		Stuck between 20 and 200 day EMA’s.
PAAS	19.52	19.99	2.41%		$           12,006	0.17%		Breaking out of EMA coils (20/50/200)
RGLD	39.50	39.95	1.14%		$           11,039	0.08%		Closed above 200 day but lagging peers.
SLV	13.92	14.50	4.17%		$           11,779	0.29%		Nice leap on volume Friday, targ: $16.04
SLW	9.37	10.45	11.53%		$           10,150	0.70%		Nice move Friday, over $11 = free air.
SSRI	18.24	18.28	0.22%		$           10,634	0.01%		Still lagging all MA’s, and peers.
TBT	49.55	46.74	-5.67%		$             9,311	-0.32%		Broke below 38.2% fib @ 47.20, 44.90 target
TC	14.29	11.98	-16.17%		$             9,861	-0.96%		Massive dilution effect from secondary
TCK	26.73	25.20	-5.72%		$           24,315	-0.83%		RSI turning back up again, could be time.
Cash (000)	$        8.63	$    12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Added another $4k+ with final NRP sale
AVG (weekly)			0.40%		$       182,520	0.07%
AVG (monthly)			9.91%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			25.14%		on cash return	21.68%

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While it may have seemed we only experienced a slight pullback day for the market, today was in fact a sad day for the Jacksonians, as we saw another original candidate get the old “heave ho” out the door for lack of performance.  I will admit, I gave Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] a little more leeway than I did Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , as it carried with it a phat dividend (over 10% as of today) and it was a royalty play rather than an operating miner (much like fellow Jackson Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is a gold royalty play), which I thought gave it some “rent safety” over the operators.  No such luck.

You see in prudent Jackson land, there’s only so much loss a play can take, and when NRP broke $19.31 today (a significant support level), it hit our stop, and we sold the remainder (207.555 shares) for a loss of 19.9%. Luckily, I only had 1/2 a position left, having sold the first half at $20.50. Still the bludgeoning (before dividend payments) was substantial.

What was I thinking picking a stock with a symbol so easily dyslexia’d into the acronym for National Public Radio, anyway?   Should’ve been a sign to me …

Luckily, despite these minor setbacks, the rest of the Jacksonians are hammering along hard enough to keep the overall returns over 21.6% since inception on May 1st. The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] remain my top winners (even as I added to my TCK a scant few weeks ago at current levels, my blended return is still 40%).

I believe the gold and silvers are going to take off here as we head into the last months of the year, as they are wont to do historically. In that regard, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are my top performers, with returns of 44.64%, 39.13% and 30.05%, respectively, since May 1st inception. Of those, I think SLW will have the greatest momentum as we head towards Christmas, because silver continues to be undervalued compared to gold.

_________________

Speaking of gold opportunities, I threw out New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] yesterday, and although it didn’t move an inch either way today, I continue to think it a strong play here, especially on a pullback to the $3.30 area.   If we’re not that lucky, I believe it’s a buy over $3.55 as well. 

I also wanted to point out another junior that I think will be a mover going forward here — Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Have a look at the daily chart:

And really, I think the weekly should cinch it for you.  It’s so eeeeeasy– a cup and handle, for goodness sakes!  And on the weekly, no less.    My take:  wait for that break of $3.21, and then… blammo!

 

One last admonition — watch [[UUP]] tomorrow for your signal.  A break above $23.31 or so will mean a little bit more waiting on the gold selections.  But if  UUP turns down again– towards my target of $23.05, that will probably mark the break out run of a great many junior gold and silver plays.

Best of luck to all my Jacksonian stalwarts. 

___________________

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So why do you insist on fighting him?   Listen, hippy — you can disparage Monsanto Company [[MON]] all you like, but the fact is, that like the other chemical company everyone loves to hate The Dow Chemical Company [[DOW]] (or was it E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company [[DD]] , I can remember?), Monstrous Santa brings good things to life, up to and including radioactive carrots as big as your thighs.

No, no, that last was just a sop to the active imaginations of the Luddite Hippy Masses (“LHM’s”) who think that unless you are breaking ground with a sharpened stick and planting only hand gathered (never plucked!  never, never plucked!) acorns in erratic rows, you are insulting “Mother Gaiea” and any manner of other animistic woodland nymphs and faerie (sic) creatures.

Fact is Monsanto is going to feed the world, and the world is going to thank them for it.   Everyone except the LHM patchouli smoking minority and Luddite millionaires like Paul Ehrlich of course, who — along with propagandists Al Gore and  Howard Zinn — makes money off of predicting world wide catastrophes that they can blame on our globe’s foolish lack of proper Marxist ideology.   No, these guys would rather the people of the Amazon basin continue a slash and burn stone age agrarian methodologies, as long as that means they don’t become part of the “problem”  —  i.e, enrolled members of the First World.  

The Euros hate Monsanto too, but for another reason.   Their agricultural protectionism makes ours look like the open bazaar in downtown Marakesch (sic).  They don’t want seeds from anywhere else but European soil, because, damnit, other countries’ seeds might actually push those lederhosen-wearing cough-drop suckers into the second half of the 20th century, four-cycle tractor engines and all.

But there’s a reason this seemingly high beta outlier lives in the stronghold that is the Jacksonian Portfolio, and that’s that feeding people will become an ever more dominating issue in this world of destroyed capital and increased liquidity.  Monstrous Santa has the intellectual property keys to solving that issue, and, barring a late hour nationalization as part of the Obamacare bill, their shareholders will benefit from that IP for years and years to come.

I’m not including the Jacksonian update from yesterday today, as I am too damn busy reading obscure legal documentia (sic) from third rate mouthpieces, and I’ve got other shit to do today as well, not the least being egregious “Continuing Ed” dealing with subject matters with which I will never in a million years have interactioin.   Gotta love bureaucracy, even in the private sector it assails me.

Know that Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] should be considered on this pullback, as should all the gold and silvers pulling back today.   Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] continues to be a monster, and it’s a Jackson full throttle again.  Ag-homey The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] also stirs again, with its sister Monsanto.  Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] holds serve on the PM front, and I like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] and [[BAA]] here as well. 

Out for most of the rest of the day, be well.   And always remember:

__________

Comments »

Make no mistake, we’re still in the midst of a full out Horatio Nelson-type naval battle, here, with the combined cannonades of inflation and deflation, public & private sector debt, multi-headed “government assistance,” increasing taxation, shrinking consumption and worsening unemployment all being fired in unison at Her Majesty’s Portfolio Cruiser, the H.M.S Winship.

Luckily her sides are reinforced with a near-impenatrable alloy of silver, gold, molybdenum and all the various metallic crap that Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] pulls out of the earth.   For weapons systems, she’s got the finest grain elevator launchers of the fleet, courtesy of  The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , which are in turn able to switch over to ethanol firing nozzles ready to inebriate the various Treasury pirates swinging off their black ships in boarding party fashion.  It doesn’t take much.

Speaking of those Treasury pirates, Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott himself would trade all his dilithium crystals for a shot at the defense shields provided by [[TBT]] , the “un-Treasuries” which will keep our ship sound and well-tarred in the coming T-Bond puke, courtesy of our trading partners, formerly known as “Barnum’s Finest.”  Looks like I should’ve grabbed a couple more of those on Friday as they bounced right off the pullback, but I was remiss.  Maybe Monday.

In the meantime, I’m feeling increasingly good about the prospects of the overall market (at least short term), and of my gold & silver plays.  Let’s take the latter first:

That monster stick on the weekly off the channel bottom, and through the 50% fib line is giving me the warm and fuzzies.  The outrageously cautious may wish to wait until we break that downtrend line, and guess what?  You’ll still be better off than those who bought at the end of May, early June.  

 Here’s the other reason I really like the sound money plays here:

 

I don’t know about you, but I think the cards are pointing to a less expensive dollar again.  Odd, no?

For my part, I will be collecting more juniors here, including Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , [[BAA]] , [[EXK]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , and my new favourite (sic) Sir Walter’s Scott’s knight in shining armor — Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] .    Of course all the Jackson’s are great as well, but especially the silvers — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , and [[PAAS]] .

Last, I think it’s imperative to realize why the dollar is getting skunked here.  Part of it is the deficits and debt we’ve already pledged to fund with the help of our suckers, er, trading partners.

 Part of it is a result of the promise of even more ridiculous legislation being rammed through Congress right now by feckless Congresscritters who are not even reading these bills.   Take a look at some of the yeoman’s  work done by retired Marine Peter Fleckenstein on the first 400 pages of the House health care monstrosity.   Really, if you were just thinking that they could get this through without it having any effect on you and your family — well, you’ll see that you’ve had your head in the sand.  

This is nothing less than the largest freedom grab in our country’s history — bar nothing, zero zip.   Try and read Peter’s parsing without getting a chill down your spine.

Last, I’ve included the Jackson Review.   I really should have allocated more cash last week.  I will do so for sure this week, so as not to continue lagging the performance of the straight stocks.

________________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	16-Jul	Change	17-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$    29.30		$     28.47	-2.83%		$              8,596	-0.15%		50 day still not out of question ($26.40)
EGO	9.20		9.21	0.11%		$              8,630	0.01%		Could be due for a little more pullback
GDX	38.33		38.64	0.81%		$            11,695	0.06%		Consolidating
GLD	91.98		91.93	-0.05%		$            10,573	0.00%		Over 20 & 50 days, but consolidating
IAG	10.05		10.22	1.69%		$            12,602	0.13%		10.60’s next resistance
MON	75.74		75.41	-0.44%		$              4,423	-0.01%		Pulled back, as expected.
NRP	22.89		23.12	1.00%		$              4,799	0.03%		Overbot, but still strong
PAAS	19.12		19.24	0.63%		$            11,556	0.04%		200 day @ 19.27
RGLD	40.59		40.67	0.20%		$            11,238	0.01%		Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV	13.09		13.17	0.61%		$            10,699	0.04%		Back over 200 day, but overbot/.
SLW	8.39		8.48	1.07%		$              8,237	0.05%		$8.50 major resistance.
SSRI	18.76		19.15	2.08%		$            11,140	0.14%		Needs back over $19.
TBT	52.00		53.56	3.00%		$            10,669	0.19%		Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC	11.81		12.36	4.66%		$              5,798	0.16%		Getting ready to crank one out
TCK	20.03		21.06	5.14%		$            14,003	0.43%		JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA	20.35		20.64	1.44%		$              4,159	0.04%		Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)	$  26.42		$   26.42	0.01%		26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				1.13%		$       175,236	1.17%
AVG (monthly)				4.03%		Actual
AVG (inception)				17.50%		Return	16.82%

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