This is a killer market. You WILL give back all the profits you worked so hard for.
We’ve had a strategy of liquidating winning positions throughout the winter months and we are mostly on the sidelines. For the “normal” investor, who is NOT trading-oriented, this is the best strategy. We decided to take a front-row seat, eating popcorn and nachos, while you “ham & eggers” sit and spin.
I’ve taken a lot of flack for this stance but it is proving the correct place to be. Relax and let the chips fall where they may…
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Well, this post could’ve been worse.
You could’ve labeled it. “I Told You So!”
chuckle. 😉
_______
But I’d NEVER say that… 🙂
and its no worse than others saying how great they are!
I just wanted the risk off the table, period.
Just another speed bump….great buying opportunity…QE2 money will be flowing this week.
ps….I’m great
this shit was much easier when the stock market didn’t go down
If the Japanese would just learn to manage their natural forces a little better all this shit would not have happened. Except we would probably be a little more worried about Libya. Is Qaddaffi all safe now?
Scott,
If Japan is a “black swan” event..is your strategy still to be on the sideline? are there not opportunities from this for a “normal” investor? I think this is finally the trigger for nat gaz medium term…but the herd is going this way too!
Look. The Dow is going to drop 700-900 points/SPX down 100pts. It’s just that there is too much moral hazard on the loose. It will be ugly when it happens and I want to short it big time. For all I know, this is our last chance.
Look at japan: $100b+ today and nobody cares because they NEED liquidity at any price. We don’t because of QE and no domestic need for liquidity.
The “normal” investor, who has followed your calls is now heavily in cash/ short term treasuries, as I am..I’m just wanting for the right strategy for the next year…too scared to short! Maybe you’re sitting tight is OK for a few weeks.
i guess its sell sell sell until QE3……buy all the VXX you can get.This Japan thing is getting way out of hand went from very bad to insanely horrific.
As fucking if Scott…without a 8.9 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown, you would have nothing, and now you are gloating as if you predicted it? No chance buddy boy.
Amazing how these things happen when risk is already high…
The fact is that my strategy has been to lessen or eliminate risk into the QE & POMO because markets were divorced from reality. Now there is a new reality.
Bottom line: regardless of the reason, It is correct strategy. And what did it cost? Noting but missing some opportunity. There will always be plenty more of that…
Some opportunity? If my memory serves me correctly, you have been singing that same song last November, or approximately 120 SPX points. Sooner or later you had to be right. I’m sure you trade more successfully than I, but it does seem to me that you could have been more precise..say within a couple of months as opposed to five or six? In any event, I do appreciate your work and am learning even from this exchange, so thank you.
Don’t you cringe when folks say – “gosh what a great buying opportunity, what looks good?”….
LLL?
Enjoy it while it lasts…because it won’t.
Nothing does.
Actually, if you go back to Scotty’s prediction of the year in January he got it spot on. He called a spike to start things off followed up by a correction.
Whats your downside target Scott-O?