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Jacksonian Core Holding: Monsanto Company

Whaddaya know? Ag’s starting to heat up again.    I was going to hold off on announcing Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) (PPT: Buy) as a Jacksonian Core Holding stock until we got a little pullback, but as you’ll see from my charts, I want you all to be looking at it this week, in case it wants to do a Clark Kent into Superman “up, up and away” on us.

I’ve got some other ags I’ll be talking about as the week progresses, but this is one of my favorite holdings, and a company that I believe can be called “the GOOG of the agricultural world.”   MON has anywhere from a three to five year lead on many of their genetically modified competitors in a number of different seed products, and in my mind, they are the biggest dog in what I believe will become not only the critical space in modern agriculture, but a highly lucrative one as well.  

 The difference between MON and a lot of these hot ag stocks (including MOS, which I also like) is their high level of quality “intellectual property.”   Not only does MON own a stable of well known brands,  but they also hold  multiple patents on their genetically modified seed technology and are continuously working to create new forms of insect and weed-resistent, as well as drought-resistant crops which will bring yields up and global food prices down.     As global protectionism raises its ugly head again during this recession, you want to own the top dog in the agricultural space, as it’s the also-rans who will suffer most from loss of global market share.

As I mentioned, the charts are looking portentous, with the daily chart showing a breakout of both the short term downtrend line and the consolidation zone formed by the price-volume bars.   We may get a pullback here on lighter volume,  as we are slightly overbought.   But, with the ags running, it’s also as likely that MON could take off this week, which is why I wanted to get this pick out for your consideration:

mondaily

The weekly show similar portent, with a low volume lift off out of the consolidation zone accompanied by the price crossing the 13 and 34 week moving average in a brisk fashion.   The weekly chart corroborates the daily’s favorable oscillators as well, and shows our significant support and resistance areas for your  target and stop setting.    For my part, I will continue to hold MON in my core portfolio and trade around it using the targets indicated.  

Monsanto remains my second largest portfolio holding.  

Caveat: If you choose to purchase this stock ,  you’re in deep peril of being served Frankenfood Franks n’ Beans for your next Thanksgiving Dinner.   You could also lose your food allowance.   Be vigilant and opportunistic.

monweek

UPDATE:  MON and fellow Aggie, ANDE off to the races, along with the sector.    Look for a pullback to $87.80-ish for MON.    Look for ANDE to bull-flag here ($17.65) but don’t wait too long… I think this is the move we were expecting.

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