[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghz4_kikLkE 450 300]

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I’ve gone full weepin’ Patriotic American soft on this 4th of July evening, just about an hour before by second son achieves the age of Manhood (were we Hebraic, we’d throw a Bar Mitzvah.  Instead we’ll just wish for mitzvahs for him).   Yes, he’s a 4th of July baby, and full of vim and vinegar and heartbreak, just like America.   Right now, he’s set on the Air Force Academy and flying superfast jets.  

Next year, who knows?  Maybe the seedings of a bad Tom Cruise movie.

But as always, I have hope, and that hope is dependent upon the good people of America, whom I meet every day.   None more so than in the marvelous South, God bless it.   Wouldn’t it be ironic if they had to secede all over again, this time in the hopes of preserving of Lincoln’s Republic?   Stranger things have happened… I passed by Lincoln Memorial University on the way to the beach … and it was in Tennessee.  

I must tell you, however, that things feel more connected down here, less amorphous, and even less cynical.  Maybe it’s the ocean, or the hermit crabs.   More likely it’s the people. 

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Enough philosophizing, I have to slay dragons.   A nameless droog from Fly’s blog (one who is not even a PPT denizen, curse his eyes), has remarked that we of the gold bug variation are in deep scheiss from this point onward.  

I have trouble accepting that prediciton and declare such droog, “asshattish,” in response.

Let’s look at our daily $HUI again, like we did two days back… and see if things have changed much:

I have trouble getting worried about this daily chart.   As you can see, we can hit $440 and still be okay, as we have not become totally oversold yet.   Still, that doji yesterday tells me we haven’t much to go here. 

Meanwhile, our nemesis, the Bernanke Dollar, broke some significant barriers on Friday:

That break of the consolidation zone doesn’t bode well for the dollar ($USD) going forward, even in this low RSI environment.   The weekly tells the better tale of broken hearts and broken trends…

New first target?  $82.oo.  That target should bode well for stocks too.   Be well, friends– and Happy 4th to you all.

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I’m going on vacation so don’t expect all the bon mots.  I’m supposed to be packing so I can’t waste time regaling you with nonsensical narrative.

I was taken somewhat unawares by the flagellant moves in my favourite names today, I’ll tell you.  But having weathered the lashes of these volatile Vincenzos many a time before, I’ve grown almost inured to the pain.  Such is the way of the long term bull-rider.

Here’s my daily take on the AMEX Gold Bug Index — the $HUI:

Not unfamiliar, no?   And it looks like there’s probably a little bit more to go, according to the weekly:

Let’s gird our loins for a little more, here, but it shouldn’t be all that much more.   The dollar broke through that $85 line I illustrated last night.   I can’t see that being a good thing for the strength of the dollar.

Best to you all.

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 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjA5faZF1A8 450 300] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjA5faZF1A8 450 300]

(C’mon, you didn’t think I’d let the Koreans have the last word, did you?)

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Two things I want to show tonight.   The first reflects the cumulative power of standing fast in your convictions.   Who knew ENTR would be such a hit?   Well, the Fly did almost $4.50 ago… but maybe we didn’t give it enough attention, and looked away too soon?

I wasn’t one of those, mind you, but that’s because I really enjoyed the thesis of holding on to quality stocks that show a tinge of “venture capital” action — that is — the big game hunt.    I am an Elephant Hunter, not in the sense of Glenn Greenwald or the New York Times going after the GOP, but in the sense of seeking large wins that I will stalk for many months before making my move.   ENTR is one of those, and as you can see, it’s today, after much weeping and gnashing,  almost three times higher (200+%) than when the Fly was recc’ing it originally at below $2.25.   Note the chart I put together many moons ago, and where we are now–

The power of patience is an awesome one to yield.   As Jesse said… sometimes it’s best to just sit on one’s hands…

Which brings me to our next guest, the vaunted “triple top” formation of  doom seemingly forming in the sainted gold bug index — $HUI.   Is this the end, or does it just warrant more patience?

You already know my answer to that question….

Best to you all, PM friends.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgwJJ3pXvOw 450 300]

(Appropos of nothing, really)

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I don’t even know why I attempt to suggest other varietals.   Is it the desire to be au courant?  The obligation to entertain?  Devil-may-care hair in the wind type stuff?

I don’t know, but really… it’s just plain silly.  There’s a single bull market at play here, and this is what we are about.   I had a bunch of positions take egregious losses today, most notably those in the “hot but not” LED space, like CREE and (worse) VECO.    POWR hung tight, but I can’t imagine that nasty Friday WSJ article will leave it be, either. 

I even took a small bit of VECO off today, in the mid-33’s, because I figured it would be a while until I saw that position back in the drivers seat.    No matter, as I bought more AGQ with the proceeds and promptly saw it rise a buck and a half (to $60 a share).  Is there anything more exciting than having one’s steed cut down from underneath one in the midst of pitched battle, only to find a stronger charger at the ready?

That is why I was not down today, despite egregiousity in the above names and even some other hard metals like TC and TCK.  It was all due to the gorgeous strength of our gold and silver portfolio.    I speak primarily of the silver miners, including SLW, PAAS, EXK, SVM, MVG, CDE, SSRI and HL.   But the gold’s included prized champions like RGLD, ANV, EGO and IAG, who were stalwarts too.   

Note how the $HUI index held up today on the weekly:

Am I wearing cats’ pajamas or is that thing looking like it wants $520?   You tell me.

Then there’s one of my favourites, ANV.   She’s just been a trooper since we picked it up just under $6 last year, and is seeming to have no trouble moving on three times that size.  Note that strong weekly consolidation?

 

And the daily looks just as promising, after a decent pullback:

Another promising pick, and one I should leave alone and go macrame a duvet, or something “crafty” like that.  God knows I’m only dangerous going outside my “comfort zone” in the PM world, and He surely sent me a signal today.

May be time to re-assess and de-stress.   Real money is coming back into vogue once again.

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I’ll be quick tonight with two illustrations which should show why I’m in (mostly) miners rather than physical gold or its paper substitute, the [[GLD]] ETF. 

First, I think we can agree we’ve been in, and we remain in, a secular bull for the precious metals, as this monthly chart on the price of gold illustrates:

Note the four times price appreciation over the eight plus years?   Not bad, huh?  Well, let’s look at the miners over that same period.  Remember, they benefit from what we call “operation leverage,” which means that in a rising price environment, they can leverage their fixed costs and really ramp profitability quickly.

Note the effect in our [[$HUI]] monthly chart:

Note the shorter time period and the far steeper gains?  Note also that the miners have yet to catch up to the recent new highs in gold.   I believe that time is coming soon, and may even be upon us as the dollar approaches a crucial double top area.  

More on that as it develops.   My best to you and your own personal operating levers.

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Lost My Shirt, Danglin’ by a Thread… Still Got the Girl, For Now

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Just a little bit longer, now I think.

I told you I took advantage of the Bollinger Band crash trade  (thanks for teaching me this, Gary) today when I purchased some kookie SPY calls at 1082, yes?   Well, you can see how that worked out.  But then, these crash trades almost never work out right away, even though they seem to work out over 90% of the time, in the more intermediate-run.  

Point is,  I think we’re pretty close to a bounce,  where I will GTFO of those calls, and hopefully back into some nice dry gold lame suits.

The gold market seems to be holding up okay, and that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] weekly chart I showed you yesterday is still holding that trend line, if only barely.   The $HUI index also looks  like it’s ready to finish it’s plunge here as well.   Maybe just a little bit more on the daily, here:

Oversold on the RSI, and the stochs are not far behind.   I think the touch and go will coincide with the rest of the market, maybe as early as tomorrow.  Here’s the weekly for perspective:

Still like the bigs, including Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , [[GDX]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] here, but also Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] .    On the silver, [[MVG]] seems to be holding up well.   [[EXK]] took a big dump, as the small caps will do, but I think it’s a bargain hunter opportunity.  Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] remains your best buy in the silver sector.

Step slowly, if at all, and I will see you all tomorrow, God willing.

PS — The PPT has been invaluable the past few days.   Fly has been on fire, and he’s even more available and open about his strategy there, away from the leeches.   It’d be well worth giving it a whirl for the summer, I tell you.

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