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Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
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You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .

Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.”    The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart.  First the weekly:

Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there.   And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.  

It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts.   Behold:

Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh?  That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles.  First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step.  It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal.  And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.

It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.

This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s  (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO). 

This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted.   However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring. 

So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufn_pUVzZBg&feature=related 450 300]

(The 1970’s are back in California, at least)

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It ain’t easy keeping up with my family for a long weekend mini-vacation let me tell you.   It seems we did it all this time around– the full blown resort/ winery grand loop/ top-eating halls/ Napa-Sonoma scenario, and even added in the occasional valley balloon flight and a “little” family party at a relative’s Fairfax home in the hills.   I think we also greatly depleted the stock of the district, so it’s a good thing that harvest is a little late this year.

Because let me tell you — they’re going to need more grape jooce (sic) when we finally vacate the air space.

Going into this week I am going to exercise some caution.  I still have a little bit of my ANV and SLW hedges left and I may add to them perhaps get some GDX and even GDXJ covered calls.  Both gold and silver are magnificently stretched here and I’m looking for a respite at least.    I woulodn’t be surprised if that respite went hand in hand with a similar pullback on the SPX.

To that end, I may trim my sails on some of my stock positions also, including TCK, TC and ANDE — the non-precious Jacksonians.  I will keep all of my MON as that seems to have a counter-cyclical trend to its trading recently.

Besides, it’s a long term hold play, and I’d be comfortable adding lower, so why sell some now?

I am bone weary and getting up early tomorrow to take on the San Fran Airport.   I will try to check in via Crackberry, but until then bon chance!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REYOJDANQ0k 450 300]

(Remember when Kanye was witty?)

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We’ve finally done it…  we’ve broken into “free air” on the Miner’s Chart — the venerable $HUI Gold Bugs Index.   Come see it for yourself:

I did a lot of things today in celebration of our free air moment.   First, I covered quite a few of my hedges in ANV and SLW and GDX, some at a loss some at break even.  The ANV was particularly egregious, but we’ll try not to dwell on that.  I still have about a 20% hedge on SLW and about 30% of ANV still hedged.   You’ll note the overbought stochastics and relative strength indicators on the above chart, I’m sure.  That’s my reason for retaining a little hedge.

But let’s not kid ourselves, the dollar is busted, and headed all the way to Target #4 without even a passing “hey howaya?” to Target #3.  Cheggitout:

Sure, we may get a little bounce at $77, but look at what happened after that last bounce.   No, I think the dollar is dead as Jacob Marley on burnt toast.

So please, get out of any silly short positions you may be contemplating “holding out” for.  There’s far more easy hunting out there than going after an Alaskan grizzly with a plastic butter knife.

In addition to releasing most of my hedges today, I also doubled down on an initial IAG long call position (DEC $17.50’s) at $1.60 a piece today.  My original purchase of 80 was at 90 cents each.   I expect IAG to be over $20 before Santa arrives.   I also added a touch more EXK, which was gluttonous of me.  I now own more of that than I even do SLW, though the share price is lower.

Of course, I think EXK will be the next SLW, so there’s a method to my sleep deprived madness.  I also really like RGLD here, and it looks like it’s ready to launch once again.  

My best to you, and to yours.

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I Know…. Nosssink! 

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Regrettably, it’s come to my recent attention that my site has become infiltrated by black bag conspiracy nuts of the Alex Jones variety.  I would ask without undue rancor that knot-heads believing in the alleged 911 “Inside Job,”  the Barack Obama Birth Certificate Kerfuffle or the Bilderbergian/Illuminati Central Axis Hypothesis (whatever that means) to kindly pole-stave off to a nearby conspiracy swamp of their choosing.

You see, all political movements — left and right — have their nutty fringe, and I’d rather not indulge those fringes right now given the seriousness of our national economic and social plight.

 So please, continue thinking that you’ve got that Jewish Lobby Puppet Master thing all figured out, and do keep proferring your legal brief claiming Barack Obama is just George Bush in more fashionably cut business attire.   That’s all fine for the Cheetohs and Miller Lite– Lone Rifleman meetings you’ve been conducting in Mom’s basement apartment, but this site is not for such erudition.

And don’t get me wrong,  it’s not just about your poor spelling and ham-handed grasp of the Queen’s grammar that’s putting me off.  Generally, that’s an amusing byproduct, in truth.

No, the ban is really about getting serious.   We’ve got a little over a month to go to make sure the bums on both sides of the aisle get the message that we are too well informed an electorate to allow another ten year Great Depression to come about under our watch.    It’s time to make sure that we have representatives educated in economics and U.S. Civics as a baseline. 

 That means no more “government-first”  initiatives, and the only time the word “investment” should come out of a poltician’s mouth is when he or she is referring to the myriad free choices for risk capital available to the private sector.   If these rubes can’t understand “First, do no harm,” then they must at least understand “Stand down, and let the people govern themselves.”

You see, it’s an ironic verity that the PPP’s mentioned in today’s title are actually  giving the “government-firsters” ample cover by repeating their paraonoic’s claims.   In fact, it seems PPP’s can’t realize that the people who would imprison them are not wearing the jackboots of their dark dreams, but instead carrying the clip-boards and white coats of the empathetic and concerned bureaucrat. 

It’s this attitude of creeping  incrementalism that must end.   Only by remaining wholly rational in its face can we hope to return to the principles — by no means perfect, but always powerful and disposed towards freedom — that brought this country to its acme.

Instead of cursing the darkness,  light a blowtorch, and think about which candidates are seeking to keep your markets and by proxy, your civilization, free.  Then go and give them every hand you can spare.

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Looks like the dollar may have temporarily bottomed late Friday afternoon, as it’s rebounded about a quarter over the low $78 it posted then.  Tonight (midnight Monday morning) has dollar trading at $78.24 and gold and silver about flat.  I continue to hope for a bit of a pullback here, but I’m not counting any chickens and would advise caution in the coming days.   October is seasonally weak for gold, so you might be on the lookout for a nice bit of weakness with which you might ride Santa’s sleigh into the Yule holidays.

Still hedged on SLW and ANV, everything else is foot loose and fancy free.    My best to you all.

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[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK_CZdS0K6o&feature=related 450 300]

Is he too fat to be President?

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Governor Christie of New Joisey (that of the Short Hills Mall) rocks, plain and simple.  He is the fat, sweaty Tony Soprano Reagan of our time.   He doesn’t take the schinola from the mealy mouthed press looking to characterize him, and he doesn’t take any crap from public service union hacks:

[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0Nqk9e1kfY 450 300]

That’s some serious Porky v. Porky action there, but the diff is — Govenor Porky really wants to peel the pork back from the bloated Jersey public sector.  Even better– he’s succeeding!  What better crusader could we enlist to take on the corrupt SEIU and the other public service unions living off the transference of our tax dollars?

In weeks ahead, I will likely be focused on electoral issues, as we head into the extremely crucial mid-term elections of 2010.   But whatever may happen on that date, we will still have the failed Obama Administration to cope with.  That means we need to start thinking about potential Presidential aspirants also — and I’m not just talking about Hillary.

We’ll have two years to figure out who best to put against the demagogic Messiah.   As I’ve mentioned to some, my personal choice is Mitch Daniels, the spectacular former mayor of Indianapolis and now Governor of Indiana.   Daniels took 80% of the Indiana vote in 2008 — the same year that Obama won in Indiana.  He is a special guy and very competent.

But I wanted to start out by looking at the Fat Man, because he too rocks.  Those of you closer to the Metropolitan area may wish to comment, but from what I’ve seen thus far, I really like this guy’s political charisma.   One last before I go.  This may be him at his best in  “telling it how it is” —

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ksLlAi3iIc&NR=1 450 300]

God Bless you, Jersey, you may finally have a great one after a long time in the wilderness.

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Gold should be pulling back here (finally).  Hang tight, as I don’t think it’s going to be much.   I will let you know when I release the hedges on ANV and SLW.

Best to you all.

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I’ve been in a frustration rage all night, dealing with a specific teacher from my kid’s new school.  I knew this clown was going to be trouble when we were ushered into his classroom on “Parent-Teacher Intro Night.”

First sign of a problem– his advanced (freshman) Biology classroom is festooned with Star Wars and Lord of the Rings paraphenalia.  It’s so chock-a-block with Lucasfilm and Tolkien goo-gaws that you get to mixing up your Yodas and your Gollums as your eye flits from poster to plasticine sculpture to quarter-scale Death Star diorama.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m as big a nostalgia geek as the next guy, but when a dude who is supposed to be in a position of authority starts taking on the trappings of his 14-year old charges in an “I’m gonna be your buddy, see?” fashion, my inner alarm-bells start ringing.

And of course this decorating style, along with his “wildly enthusiastic wide-eyed and energized” schtick is all just a big passive- aggressive foil. You see, he’s really been put on the planet to show all these AP-level kids how freaking lazy they’ve been all their lives and what a real boot-camp ass-kicking class is like, courtesy of his over-caffeinated, Napoleanic personality.  You see, they may all be going places, but this day, they’re his!

But that’s not the worst of it.  The worst is his bizarre insistence on using all these notoriously buggy “cloud computing” academic “aides” in order to process simple things like homework essays. 

So if have been stupid enough to encourage your kid to read books and play sports instead of staying in his roomand learning to dissasemble his PC (blindfolded),  guess who become the guinea pig in the great “figure out how this new-fangled 64-bit double-key encrypted 16 password entry bullshit works” process?

Hint — it’s not dear old Mom.

So here I am writing my post at post-midnight because I spent much of the evening visiting 53 separate websites and checking nine different on-line syllabus entries to find the proper “log-in information” so my son could submit his quotidian two page homework essay “the modern way.”

In case you were wondering (I know you are lock-jawed asleep right now),  that way was “late” — as we didn’t get it into the bullshit cloud computing thingamijig (it allegedly checks for plagiarization, spooky, no?) until after the 10 pm deadline.

So I just e-mailed the damn paper to the geeky homunculus, 1998-style.  I am hoping he bitches me out about it.  Look for the results in the local paper, “Violent Crimes, unsolved” — section.

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The Dollar is down below $81, as forewarned, thanks to Ben doing as much cocaine as my son’s Bio teacher, and now the buck looks headed for the “neckline” of a pretty dismal head and shoulders pattern.  More important to me than that (imho) bogus pattern is the return to the 38.2% fibonacci level after bouncing off it once already and not quite making it all the way to the 61.8% only to feel the tug of gravity all over again.

This second return may force the break we’ve been talking about, or it may simply be grounds for another bounce. Because of the relative overbot nature of my silver and gold plays, I’m hedging right now for the latter, but I will not rule out the former. Check the dollar weekly (weakly?) one more time and see if you can see a near term return to the $77-78 level in its future:

Yours in the fight against overzealous teacher-tyranny,

Jake.

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