Not my Yanks, that’s for sure
_____________________________________________________

Drawdown days are a bitch, I don’t care how well hedged you are. Some of my positions took 7 and even 8% haircuts today, but mostly that was the small ones. The bigger ones were hedged, so the bleeding was not entirely egregious. I was almost entirely out of my AGQ with only 400 shares left, so that was not a horrible caining I took even in that double slammer today, given I formerly owned 3k shares.

Word to the wise, the $HUI index is oversold already on the deep dive it did today, so I would not dwell long in the land of shorting this gold bull.  You are far more likely to receive  profitable thrills by waving your junk at a basket filled with hungry ferrets.

Of all the single precious issues out there, I like IVN and GSS to rebound first.  Don’t ask me why, just attend to my Spider Senses.   I also like almost precious REE, if it ever comes back down to earth again.  

In the non-metals world, I still love the Trannies and their strength here, relative to the scaredy cat sell off.   I especially love UPS, and you should look to add to this core holding if it can dip just a little below to it’s 50-day EMA at $66.60 or so:

RGLD is another core hold  you should be looking to glom here.   I will be adding to it, to ANV and to SLW very shortly. 

Watch the dollah!   More tomorrah!

_________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzRCdKbtBYo&feature=more_related 450 300]

The Good Doctor

_____________________________________

Looks like the dollar is finally bouncing here, after a couple of weeks of straight hind-mammary sucking.  This will probably also give the market that respite for which you’ve been searching these past crazy weeks.  

As you know I use few lodestones to guide my way here, and a major guide for me is the U.S. dollar, as we’ve discussed.   It’s rare you’ll see the dollar rise and the markets ascend along with it in a weak economic environment like the one we’re experiencing right now.    More likely, any uptick you are seeing in the stock market is a panic move by investors seeking somewhere to hedge them against eroding value of the greenback.  Consequently, a dollar upsurge ought to dampen that enthusiasm.

Take this week to take something off the top, and perhaps look for some bargains– preferably in the precious metal or emerging market sphere.   I’d say ag too, but it’s unclear whether ag will cool down in this “corn prices as high as an elephants eye” environment.  

The Trannies are another “tell” for me, as I like to think I keep an eye on the Dow Theory tells as well.   Let’s be straight up — the Trannies have been performing well this year, and that’s one reason I’ve remained obstinately bullish even through the dire predictions of late summer.  

But even the Transports will have to rest off this strong recent move, and what better place than here at the April highs?   You can see the mini-cup formation as it’s shaping up right now on the weekly:

As you can see, Signor Fibonacci  still smiles on our Transports, and this pullback will likely not take us anywhere below the 61.8% golden ratio limit.  In fact, you can see that despite the slightly overbought RSA and the turning slow stochastics, the Transports are still under heavy accumulation here.

So take a week, fly a kite, stuff a turkey (for practice), make your pet goat a lobster costume for Halloween… whatever.   This may be a week to be out of the market.  

In the meantime, I will be looking at some Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR) for apres the bull back.   I love me that Bra-zillion Earl, with its Bra-zillion barrels stored safely below the South Atlantic Sea.  

No worries, I shall have other suggestions as well.   For now, you might consider a spin in the FAZ-mobile.   And consider the source… it’s been a long time since I’ve shorted banks, but this week may be the time…

Best to you all.

_________________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNc5o9TU0t0&feature=related 450 300]

Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
_______________________________________________________

You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .

Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.”    The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart.  First the weekly:

Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there.   And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.  

It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts.   Behold:

Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh?  That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles.  First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step.  It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal.  And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.

It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.

This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s  (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO). 

This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted.   However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring. 

So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!

Best to you all.

_________________________

Comments »

 

_____________________________

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility;
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, [conjure] up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favor’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let it pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o’erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O’erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill’d with the wild and wasteful ocean.

–William Shakespeare, Henry V

________________________

Yes, it appears she’s ready again.   So, while we are waiting for the gold and silver pullback (hint, ANV is almost done!), take a few dollars of this play of our old girl ENTR once more:

As I mentioned in The PPT today, I expect even beloved SLW and EXK will pull back a bit here, so let some off, or just take a rest.   It shant be a long one.   And likely the semi news this evening will help our friend ENTR scale new heights once again.

My best to you all.

_________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufn_pUVzZBg&feature=related 450 300]

(The 1970’s are back in California, at least)

____________________________

It ain’t easy keeping up with my family for a long weekend mini-vacation let me tell you.   It seems we did it all this time around– the full blown resort/ winery grand loop/ top-eating halls/ Napa-Sonoma scenario, and even added in the occasional valley balloon flight and a “little” family party at a relative’s Fairfax home in the hills.   I think we also greatly depleted the stock of the district, so it’s a good thing that harvest is a little late this year.

Because let me tell you — they’re going to need more grape jooce (sic) when we finally vacate the air space.

Going into this week I am going to exercise some caution.  I still have a little bit of my ANV and SLW hedges left and I may add to them perhaps get some GDX and even GDXJ covered calls.  Both gold and silver are magnificently stretched here and I’m looking for a respite at least.    I woulodn’t be surprised if that respite went hand in hand with a similar pullback on the SPX.

To that end, I may trim my sails on some of my stock positions also, including TCK, TC and ANDE — the non-precious Jacksonians.  I will keep all of my MON as that seems to have a counter-cyclical trend to its trading recently.

Besides, it’s a long term hold play, and I’d be comfortable adding lower, so why sell some now?

I am bone weary and getting up early tomorrow to take on the San Fran Airport.   I will try to check in via Crackberry, but until then bon chance!

______________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7R1_4h3kg0 450 300]

Mystery Solved Re: Fly’s Love for Wu Tang?

______________________

Stung by yellow-jackets on Sat-ta-day, ruined by late night inept Giants football at hostile Lukoil Stadium on Sunday, yet still I rally with room to spare for the big city meeting with the mystery ex-pro ball player and current mutliple centimillionaire.  Could be one of my biggest deals since I moved South. (drum roll)

I’m so hood, I just can’t help it, dammit.

And what’s more, the market continued to rally, including my goldbug darling ANV, much to my re-hedged chagrin.  Thanks to my selling the calls on Friday, today’s almost $1.40 (5.3%) move felt a lot more like an $0.40 move.  Ah well, we can’t all be supreme market timers can we?

I also hedged about 60% of my SLW position on Friday, but she was largely flat today.   I do expect both names to climb back down the ladder very soon.  I won’t even bother showing you ANV’s chart, but suffice it to say it looks like an arborist standing on a stepladder that’s perched on the radio tower attached to the roof dome of the Chrysler Building.   Now if  that stock gets bought out tomorrow, you will probably hear me howling in Canarsie tonight, and the Maldives.

All hedges aside, I was still up about 0.5% today, and the market is looking vaguely dispeptic.  Tomorrow the Fed will send us into choleric spasms of one form or another, I’ve no doubt, and you know I’ll be watching the dollar for another breakdown from the $81 mark, like we briefly saw the other day.

That could set us off again to bulltard land, as I’ve been trying to relay to the agnostic bearish among us.   What’s more, f we do look like it’s run-time, it won’t just be the metals.   Yes, ENTR looks like it’s coiling for another sky-blast too.  And if you still have CMI, well, keep it as well, ey?

Best to you all, my wooties.

____________

Comments »