Yeah, I’m afraid our recent rise and today’s hiccup are all about the craptastic dollar, which my friend Cash & Guns pointed out yesterday may be indicating a rebound.   Let’s have a look at our favorite dollar proxy — [[UUP]] . Here’s the daily:
 

You can see on the daily chart above that we just popped into a pretty stiff consolidation zone today, and that it runs all the way to $24 — which is also close to the significant 61.8% retrace of that long term move at $24.06 or so.    But seeing as we’ve already penetrated that line, it’s now become resistance, and will serve as a barrier to our dollar rebound.

Now look at the weekly:

I will leave the conjecture up to you, but it looks like our $UUP dollar may have a hard time getting back over that $24 hump, even as it climbs back from that bear flag breakdown.   At least we know where the hard road lies, should it do so. 

Right now, I’m taking this as a signal to hold my precious metal positions.   Seeing as I’d do that anyway, you might rightly accuse me of pattern bias.  However, until the trend changes, I will not consider hedging my positions.

________________

[[CNXT]] , which I previewed here on Sunday night as a possible “BTFO” if it broke $1.50 did just that today, proving that the Fly’s tech thesis seems to be at least partially intact.   In honour (sic) of that win today, I will post two other “techish” names that look to be moving out of long term downtrends as well.

The first is really a medical device play, and — ironically — it was mentioned in a TC post to my blog the other night as a defense of the Israeli contributions to humanity (you’d think the Old Testament and Bar Raefeli would have been enough, but no, these guys just keep on giving).   Ladies and gentlemen, teeny tiny colon submarine producer Given Imaging Ltd. [[GIVN]] :

Note, that’s a weekly chart, which really emphasizes the significance of the trend break, IMHO.

Next weekly chart shows a similar strong trend change in Trimble Navigation Limited [[TRMB]] .   This one might even get all you “head and shoulders” fanatics’ back legs a twitching:

Comments »

Bow down to Lord Pig!  Did you forget what Island you were on?

Don’t think you can just skip on down to the Circle and pick up the conch and blow to your heart’s content.

You cannot.

No, it’s time to get your horn rimmed glasses smacked from your face and ground underfoot, whilst you grope wildly after fuzzy-form perpetrators who’ve done away with Good English Manners.

The Jacksons took a similar blind side hit today, and you know what? I’m not given to much concern. I’ll sit up here on top of my coconut tree and munch bananas whilst I watch the devolution down below.

Yes, yes, “kill the pig, slit it’s throat!”

(Eye roll)

What-ever!
_____________

Note [[BAA]] , mentioned last night, and of which I bot 6k of at close at $2.03-.04, hardly moved today, even as the gold and silvers markets shivered and [[UUP]] peeked its battered head up? Did you note the same behaviour (sic) with previously recommended Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] ?

Pure luck, I assure you. All of the juniors will show some strength, merely because their time to shine is almost here. Same with the silvers. They are trying to shake, but even their now-familiar swoons seem half hearted.

Just wait here, with me atop the coconut tree. The ham hocks will be served, presently.

_____________

Comments »

Allright, that’s enough of this Barack Obamacare bashing. For now.

Let’s all remember what this blog is about after all, which is sound money market plays. That stuff can’t work out without a crapload of bad government policy to destroy the currency for our benefit. So let’s all take a minute to thank Barack and Nancy and the whole group down at the Fed for the opportunities they’ve apportioned us.

And here’s some more that I think may be burbling to the surface this very evening… First it looks like the coal stocks are catching a whiff, so let’s not forget about the Jacksonian dividend payor — Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] .

Next I’ve got some fun junior golds that I think are ready to take off, not unlike last night’s recommendation [[CNXT]] did today. The first I’ve talked about for many months, and it’s one of my favourites (sic) of the junior miner variety — and here’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] ‘s weekly chart:

Looking for a flat side breakout (up) here, with a little additional volume. $9.00 should be the safe zone.

Next is [[BAA]] , which finally got it’s mojo going today. I think a move over $2.14 is the second stage of this story:

Last, an old friend who may be indicating good news (finally) for the Brotherhood of the Natural Gas freaks (like Fly’s Flotek), is Lexington, KY-based NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] , which is showing a turtle head pop-out of the downtrend:

Last, the silvers look like they are going to make another run, so keep an eye on the silver Jacksons Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and [[PAAS]] . Also platinum finally started getting off it’s keyster today as well — I use the ETF [[PTM]] to invest in that precious metal.

Remember to write your Congressperson about keeping their hands off your private, well supplied healthcare system. Don’t let them kill the goose that’s laying the golden eggs for us and the rest of global health. Best to you all.

Comments »

I only have one daughter, and she’s something special. Today’s her ninth birthday and may I live to see many more. As I say, she’s something special, and she’s either going to drive me to an early grave or make me proud beyond all measure.

Or both.

Developing….
______________

As for the market, I’ve got some updates on the Jacksonians. I’ve decided, that — market precluding — I’m going to start giving updates only on a weekly basis. Two reasons for that.  One, it strikes me that you all are not ridiculously fired up to get a daily update, and two, it being somewhat of a pain in the ass to do daily, AND it being a long term portfolio, it’s better for us all if I just throw the chart out there once a week.   As you can see, I’ve done that below. 

I will continue to mention Jacksonians that “need to be bought” throughout the week, just as I hammered on [[TC]]  and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] this week.    I just won’t be plotting their every move.   It grows wearisome, and the feedback hasn’t been overwhelming.    Any of you who have specific questions, please feel free to ask in the comment section.

Some ideas for the upcoming week… two longs and a short.  First the longs, as I believe we may be in an upward spiral here to at least 1010 on the S&P 500.  [[CNXT]] is a crazy little tech play that’s been showing as much promise as Amkor Technology, Inc. [[AMKR]] (a play I am already in).   I really like the recent moves, and think a cautious player should feel good about entering over $1.50.  The chart tells the story:

I also like coal and gas fired electricity producer Mirant Corporation [[MIR]] here. I made a ton of money on this company’s preferred’s back when it was in, and coming out of bankruptcy, and now that it’s out, it’s generationg asset heavy mix has started to perk up the acquisition minded utility market again. Whether this sucker ever gets bought out, it’s a perpetual bridesmaid and I believe it will gain traction in this coming cycle. The chart shows that interest moving:

Last my short possibility.  Now, don’t go crazy with this, as I think it may take a little time to develop.  Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] crapped the bed last Friday on some bad analyst talk.  Whether it will continue to break down will be the tale of the chart.  As you can see, I’ve marked where I think it’s safe to start shorting this ugly booted mother.   I’ve had some success in this one in the past, and if you believe, like me, that retail will lead the way down this Fall, then this is a nice one to keep an eye on.  Be cautious, however, and pay attention to the markers as indicated:

Last the Jacksons, and their moves from last week, which are mostly glorious. I have reduced cash somewhat in rebuying more Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and may deploy some more, especially as I have taken off the [[TZA]] hedge play. Until next time, ciao.
____________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	17-Jul	Change	24-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$            28.47		$       30.99	8.85%		$        9,357	0.50%		Will be breaking new ground over $32.
EGO	9.21		9.27	0.65%		$        8,686	0.03%		Bouncing off 20 day (9.05)
GDX	38.64		39.90	3.26%		$      12,076	0.24%		Consolidation range pullback
GLD	91.93		93.41	1.61%		$      10,743	0.10%		Break of $94 important
IAG	10.22		11.11	8.71%		$      13,699	0.72%		Best long term hold in the PM’s
MON	75.41		84.16	11.60%		$      13,352	0.93%		Back over 200 day looking good again
NRP	23.12		23.00	-0.52%		$        4,774	-0.01%		Above all MA’s and looking strong again
PAAS	19.24		19.68	2.29%		$      11,820	0.16%		Expect a pullback, but buy there ($19)
RGLD	40.67		41.78	2.73%		$      11,545	0.19%		Above all MA’s and looking strong again
SLV	13.17		13.66	3.72%		$      11,097	0.25%		$14.60 next target
SLW	8.48		9.23	8.84%		$        8,965	0.48%		200 day strong support @ 8.40
SSRI	19.15		20.08	4.86%		$      11,681	0.34%		Over evern MA and looking for more
TBT	53.56		53.19	-0.69%		$      10,596	-0.04%		Looking to make a move again
TC	12.36		14.75	19.34%		$      12,141	1.41%		A thing of beauty, get ready for pullback
TCK	21.06		24.49	16.29%		$      16,283	1.59%		A thing of beauty, get ready for pullback
TZA	–		–	0.00%		$              –	0.00%		Sold out remainder @ $18.26 this week
Cash (000)	$          16.89		$     16.89	0.01%		$    16,891	0.00%		Reduced by MON and TC purchases
AVG (weekly)				5.38%		$  183,706	6.87%
AVG (monthly)				3.00%		Actual
AVG (inception)				20.86%		Return	22.47%

Comments »

 

I figured I’d take some time off from battling economic illiterates and Stockholm-Syndromed left wing Canadians on nature of government bureaucracies to comment on the market. 

The only thing I can say is:  maybe I should do more political blog posts, as it seems to act like Miracle-Gro on my portfolio garden.   And no one is more an example of that than the Ag King Monsanto Company [[MON]] who is kicking down doors and stealing third world children for medical experiments with quite the profitable panache these days.  (Sorry that last was from an E.L.F. brochure I picked up at an Al Gore hedge fund meeting yesterday).  

As a result of today’s ridiculous meltup, [[TZA]] hit my final stop which was $18.30, though my “eggsellent” trading service didn’t sell it for another four pennies.  I will have words for them, believe me.   I always have words.

I also took the opportunity to grab another 100 shares of MON for the Jacksons today at the 10 am price ($81.09), which will get my position size back in line with its former numbers.  Yes, I am buying it higher than where I sold, but what the hell, I didn’t sell it on my “real” portfolio and that should be a lesson to me.  Here I am trying to be more conservative with the Jacksons and all I’m doing is costing you money.   I will try to be more clingy for you in future.

Also at 10 am, I added another $5,000 worth of Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] at $14.13 (354 more shares), which will also bring that position back in line with original numbers. I still like Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here, but am still waiting for a pullback, which has become a wearying excercise. I also like Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] and am adding here at $8.20 to my personal portfolio. Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] I have mentioned and bot a small amount earlier this month. It is “BTFO” today.

On the PM front, I like Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] here, if for only for the fact that it’s lagging, and that I think it will catch up with the crowd. On the fast moving fronts, the silvers are off the blocks again and sprinting ahead. I like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] here, a lot. On the non Jackson front, the juniors are not exactly kicking as much arse as I would expect, but I continue to like their prospects over the majors. All the N’s are good Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] as well as [[EXK]] , [[BAA]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] . Also keep an eye on Nevsun Resources (USA) [[NSU]] and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] . Last of the list, Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] looks nice now, but will look really good on a break of $2.50. As always proceed at your own risk on these little pocket rockets.

I would be remiss if I were to ignore the relative beating the Obama Machine is taking in the polls on this healthcare initiative, and the effect it is having on the prospects of the horrendous bill (mentioned in last post) getting through Congress. I think the alleveation of that impending government blanket on our economy is what’s causing this meltup. That said, the euphoria could be temporary, especially if the Messiah Road Show gets any traction. If last night’s Ramble-a-thon is any indication, I think we’re moving closer to safe ground.

The big insurers are also taking some heart today, with Humana Inc. [[HUM]] , CIGNA Corporation [[CI]] , UnitedHealth Group Inc. [[UNH]] and Aetna Inc. [[AET]] all showing solid gains. I will not buy a one of them, however, until I know Obamacare is dead, and then I might only grab some Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]] when I know its safe. Let’s face it, health insurance companies are going to be under the gun for years to come here, and until Congress gets its hand out of their pockets, they’ll struggle within their regulatory environment. You are better off sticking with the inflationary names for now.

_______________

UPDATE: I forgot to mention Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. [[CWCO]] which I am buying here at 16.45 (1k shares, starter). One of the miracles of St. Thug. (Salt water into potable)

UPDATE:  Just bot 1k more The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] for the personal portfolio @ $31.09.

UPDATE:  Just bot 2k more  [[BIOS]] for the personal portfolio @ $6.32.

Comments »

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs 450 300] 

The above scene brought to you by Obamacare rationing.  Get used to it.  

Seriously, I hate to go on and on, but this Obamacare bill before Congress right now could be the worst legislation rammed through the Congress since the bad old days when Wilson okay’d the Fed and then got the 16th Amendment passed, essentially giving the Federal Gummint the license to meddle with your pay forever.

   You owe it to yourself to take the painful steps to read at least a couple of pages — just open it up in the middle, anywhere — it’s 100% bad from nave to chaps.

And if you aren’t keyed up enough to get angry for your own families’ sake, then at least feel some empathy for the Canadians that will lose their only available avenue to decent healthcare.

Wake up and do the research, America, before you wreck the greatest health care system and innovation purveyor on the globe.  Follow http://twitter.com/fleckman as well, for all the latest on the Healthcare bill.  I’d send you to his blog, but it’s been literally innundated with visitors and therefore cannot handle the traffic at this point.  His stuff on Twitter has links and downloads that are very helpful, however.

Remember, you are a sovereign citizen.   Take back your country from the authoritarians who would order your life for you, and limit your freedom.   Even if you voted for Obama, you didn’t vote for this.

________________

The Jacksons were off a mere tad today (0.4%) but are still returning a blink under 19% since May.   As mentioned Monsanto Company [[MON]] had a huge day, which promises more in future.   Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] was up even more, and don’t act like I haven’t been pounding the table on both it and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] .   I continue to pound.   You must endeavour (sic) to listen.

More on the juniors that I will be purchasing tomorrow.  Until then…

Best of health to you all.

__________________

Comments »