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Okay, so the gold and silver party has been put on hold, thanks to the surging US dinero, a.k.a., the U.S. Peso, the ugly American dollah dollah bill.
I think this move be temporary lads, so let’s not grieve and bereave. Rather, take this time to re-up and re-assess. All the names I gave you yesterday and more will be strong through next Christmas. “Gather slowly” is my mantra.
In the meantime, the M&A carnival continues, and my question to The PPT last weekend — i.e., “why do these pasta bastids at AIPC seem to move in league w. gold?” is finally explained… someone’s been stalking our Pasta Friend, and it’s the good old dog food people at Ralston Purina! Pasta for dogs, that’s the answer to our national malaise!
I jest, it’s actually the makers of the inedible Grape Nuts at Ralcorp. But Ralston Purina pooch food was funnier, so sorry.
Long story short, if you bought some AIPC some weeks back when they were moving with the gold stocks, then you made a nice pop today despite your bludgeoning in key gold names.
Go slow, go small, but the pops will continue, as will the degredation of the dollar. Stick with the PM’s and sell some calls if you get nervous. I will hold fast and even add here after selling my AIPC winnings tomorrow.
I am still on the road so my presence will be limited. My best to you all.
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Jake,
Today I sold my IAG taking a 5% position loss, but kept my GLD even though it was down 2%. I seem to have a problem with timing some of your ideas, primarily because the down side is so extreme. Of course when I time it right, I love the upside. So given my deposition for lack of volatility, I’m wondering how you handle it.
Question is: If I were to go for picks that lost 5% + and I were you, what would I do? Just hold on, get out, take a half position and hold on, put on a hedge or what?
Make no mistake, I appreciate you posts, but would love to understand how you deal with these picks that at least sometimes, seem to go against you or at least me.
Thanks!
It’s quite simple, I buy and hold. I’m up well over 100% on my original IAG purchase…
If I think the position has moved too far, too fast, I might sell some calls or even sell a couple of shares for a buyback. (I didn’t do anything yesterday)
BTW — I specifically DID NOT talk about IAG this week (and I mentioned in yesterday’s note) because I thought IAG was ready for a pullback.
IAG wil be fine, you just need to be able to handle the volatility. Go have a sandwich and stop worrying so much. You are in a bull market, don’t expect to catch every “buck” of the bull.
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Moving from funds to stocks, you are going to take a beating now and again for a while.
The PPT can’t take the place of experience.
The best advice I wish I’d had was patience. If you like gold, wait for gold stocks to get killed like 2 weeks ago (could take another 6 months, who knows) and hold them till the larger trend changes. That could be months or more likely years. If you are not in a hurry, just do nothing till everyone is scared again. It will happen again, always does.
50 – One thing that I do now, but took me a very long time to learn, is to analyze every position you take based on the risk. Figure out the amount you are willing to lose on the trade (I use 0.5 percent or less of my portfolio value). Then figure out on a chart or based on a percentage move or whatever (literally whatever), when you will know the trade is broken. Calculate your position size (the number of shares) based on that. Undoubtedly it will be a much smaller position than you are currently trading.
It will give you a couple of things: 1) it will give you staying power since you can set your stop (mental or otherwise) much lower. You are actually recognizing the risk in the position but taking a much smaller position. 2) you have POM. You can relax and let the trade play out.
Just checked my Jacksonian portfolio number for the IAG buy (I bot it earlier than that, but not much).
It was $8.11.
See how easy this is?
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Thanks Jake,
And TA,
I think you’re right. Part of my problem seems to be getting used to the increased volatility in stocks over mutual funds.
From now on, I eat more sandwiches.
just don’t replace sandwiches for what Yogi said re volatility and stops
Congrats on AIPC Jake! I made my own purchase during “Volume Box 2”, and had been patiently sitting on a position since February. Noticed you were one of the few people out there, period, that had this name on their radar so kudos to you.
Also I think it is worth mentioning that this stock was in the portfolios of Steve Cohen (SAC Capital) and George Soros (Quantum Fund) so some very astute investors had been quietly accumulating this company for some time.
Soros just thought AIPC was the best “Al dente”
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Finally RGLD looks ilke it’s going to BTFO…but no.. heartbreak city 🙁
Thoughts on RGLD? A buy on this offering news? Pricing the shares $48.50 was a bit low IMO…could they not get a better bid?
“I jest, it’s actually the makers of the inedible Grape Nuts at Ralcorp.” And I thought I was the only one who found Grape Nuts inedible.
really? it’s one of the crappiest cereals known
Actually Grape Nuts is quite good with the proper application of whole milk and sugar.
Then let it stand about six hours and come back and eat it.
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Odds bodkins, I must admit I bit my lower lip when I saw the discount to close on thus offering, but then I saw
Then iwho was doing the underwriting and my heart was cheerful anew. How many gold deals do you see led by the pirates at Goldman and the mega-bank HSBC ??
I shall likely be adding on the morrow.
Apologies for my busy-ness. I should be back tomorrow.
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Nibbled on some FAS @ $21.5
Fastard – i get my first glimpse of “the whale” this weekend. Very exciting. We will shower him with presents. Or lightly drizzle, depending on how much i can reign in the chef.
They should be arriving in NY as we speak (beautiful day, yet obligatory 1 hr delay).
I hope the ticker-tape parade doesn’t create too much traffic.
Re: FAS- get you some…and MORE!
I thought he was swallowed by a whale?
I thought the above pic was familiar…
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I thought that was a home pic when i first saw it. Really weird. #4 for sure
TBT @ $37.55
bam!
I can’t believe I’m not getting mortgage solicitations … what’s my ten year peg looking like today, or is 15 better?
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I jumped on TBT when we had a reprice for the worse earlier.
You could do a 10 yr @ 3.75% getting a .25 back
or 15 yr @ 4.125% paying a .25 .
Instrument Direction 32nds Price
Ginnie Mae 4.5% – 30 year Down 7 at 103.656
Fannie Mae 4.5% – 30 year Down 7 at 103.125
Fannie Mae 4.0% – 15 year Down 1 at 103.593
Fannie Mae 4.0% – 7 year Up 0 at 102.671
Ten Year Treasury Note Unchanged 0 at 103.187
30-year Treasury Bond Down 15 at 104.875
No ketchup on his burger. WTF?
What?
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