It’s been a very special first month. What’s important to recognize is that there’s a bull out there, you just need to understand where it is, and stick with it. I have not highlighted the week of the 15th here, but that was a down week for the portfolio. And yet, look how we ended it– up almost 25% for the month.
Not every month will be like this, and especially not when we start to hit the skids again. However, I believe firmly that the JCHP will continue to outperform it’s comparable indexes through the coming weeks and months, and therefore preserve your capital. That’s what it’s all about in the end, anyway– banking your coin, and enjoying the freedom and independence that act brings you. My best to you all.
| Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio Performance | ||||||
| Name | 5/1/2009 | 5/29/2009 | Weekly ∆ | Monthly ∆ | ||
| ANDE | $ 16.56 | $ 25.10 | 7.54% | 51.57% | ||
| EGO | 8.00 | $ 9.92 | 5.53% | 24.00% | ||
| GDX | 33.04 | $ 44.16 | 5.02% | 33.66% | ||
| GLD | 86.95 | $ 96.20 | 1.85% | 10.64% | ||
| IAG | 8.11 | $ 11.27 | 3.78% | 38.96% | ||
| MON | 85.25 | $ 82.15 | -5.15% | -3.64% | ||
| NRP | 24.09 | $ 23.66 | 6.53% | -1.78% | ||
| PAAS | 16.65 | $ 23.42 | 9.34% | 40.66% | ||
| RGLD | 36.19 | $ 46.57 | 5.22% | 28.68% | ||
| SLV | 12.31 | $ 15.47 | 6.69% | 25.67% | ||
| SLW | 7.72 | $ 10.52 | 12.63% | 36.27% | ||
| SSRI | 17.19 | $ 23.89 | 9.94% | 38.98% | ||
| TBT | 50.20 | $ 52.64 | -1.74% | 4.86% | ||
| TC | 7.11 | $ 9.60 | 11.11% | 35.02% | ||
| TSO | 16.01 | $ 16.94 | 4.37% | 5.81% | ||
| AVG | 5.51% | AVG | 24.62% | |||
| Comparable Indexes | ||||||
| Name | 5/1/2009 | 5/29/2009 | Weekly ∆ | Monthly ∆ | ||
| SPY | $ 87.89 | $ 92.53 | 3.94% | 5.28% | ||
| QQQQ | 34.37 | 35.38 | 5.49% | 2.94% | ||
| DIA | 81.92 | 85.39 | 3.04% | 4.24% | ||
| NDX | 1,396.62 | 1,435.57 | 5.31% | 2.79% | ||
| RUT | 486.98 | 501.58 | 5.02% | 3.00% | ||
| AVG | 4.56% | AVG | 3.65% | |||
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damn.. nice stats Jake!
If we go back into “a skid”, what will you hedge with? Perhaps an airbag, or SRS?
hi Jake- same question as Eric thx!
Nice gains . Come on ,dont you think the deflation switch gets hit after July 4, or end of July You really think the Fed is powerfull enough to inflate the whole system . I dont see metals or metal stocks reaching new highs without a 30% correction [or if they do it will be short lived]. Just remember 52,000,000,000 in debt destruction or contraction. I didnt see the fed printing 52,000,000,000 this spring did you . I believe in the concept of your portfolio , but maybe a little down the road . Precious metal investors seem overly passionate sometimes about the metals themselves .
MasterP — I guess we’ll see. Gold increased in value during the deflationary depression as well. Odd, no?
But hey, you’re probably right. Those 30 and 40% moves are likely head fakes.
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Eric — I already have a little SRS, because I think the CRE’s will see more pain. It won’t go into the JCHP, however.
I will hedge as I have been doing, with calls sold at appropriate times. You may even see some names drop off, but likely not the PM names.
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Outstanding, Jake. Well done.
I gotta be away from the interwebs next week, but I’m going to print out some of your posts this month and get caught up on your Jacksonian encomium.
Nice pic of Marcel Marceau in the Statue of Liberty, btw.
Regarding your debut performance, if he was alive, I’m sure Marcel would say, “_________!”
Breath-taking! Very great job!
“- The U.S. economy contracted violently again in the first quarter, falling at a revised 5.7% annual rate after sinking 6.3% in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday in its second estimate of quarterly gross domestic product.
– Business investment declined at a record rate during the quarter.
– Investments in housing fell at the fastest pace in 29 years.
– Domestic demand fell at the fastest rate in 29 years. Exports fell at the fastest pace in 38 years.
– Over the past year, before-tax profits are down 18%.
– After-tax profits are down 15%, the largest decline in 28 years.
– Final demand was extremely weak in the first quarter. U.S. residents’ purchases of goods and services (regardless of country of origin) dropped 7.5% annualized, the largest decline since 1980.
– Final sales of U.S. goods and services fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Final domestic sales of U.S. goods and services fell 5.3%. Exports fell at 28.7% annual rate, the most in 28 years, as foreign markets fell into a deep recession.
– The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 60 years.
– In the past four quarters, the economy has fallen 2.5%, the biggest year-over-year decline since 1982.
– Business investments fell at a record 36.9% annual rate in the first quarter. Investments in structures dropped a record 42.3%, and investments in equipment and software fell at a 33.5% pace, the biggest drop since 1958. Business fixed investment subtracted 4.5 percentage points from growth.
– Investments in housing fell for the 13th consecutive quarter, dropping at a 38.7% annual rate, the largest decline since 1980. Residential investments subtracted 1.4 percentage points from growth.
Trade collapsed during the quarter. Exports fell 28.7%, the most in 38 years.
– Government spending fell at a 3.5% annual pace, the largest drop in 13 years.
– The price index for domestic purchases (prices paid by U.S. residents) fell 1% in the quarter. Consumer prices fell 1%, while core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy) rose 1.5%. ”
Does this look inflationary?
Trader Joe and Anton — thanks. Regarding Marcel M. — well, the Statue of Liberty was a gift from the French after all. I guess we could tolerate a couple of MM’s “invisible boxes” in her crown.
Nice eye, btw… I wanted to see if anyone (non-Noo Yawkah) would know what that picture was about.
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MP — If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my almost twenty years of investing in the market, it’s not to second guess her.
I saw a deflationary contraction coming in late 2007, but I waited until I saw the market incorporate the Fed’s last desperate attempts before I traded it.
It’s the only way to stay alive.
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I have been long gold for three days here. Has anyone noticed the inverse head and shoulder pattern on the weekly gld chart
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2009/0529.html
MP — two things:
One, yes, although I think we may have a rest rather than a breakout at the $1000 neckline, since we’ve run so far so fast.
That said, the $HUI has also hit that “rest” zone I spoke of in my last chart review (at $400).
I would not be shocked to see a nice pullback here, and possibly a chance for some folks to get into the JCHP at more attractive levels than Friday.
Personally, I’d like to add another 6k of EGO.
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Jake – good stuff… I have some gold (NGD- thank you!), have been wanting to add some silver as well… EXK or SLW?
Thanks!
Some spooky stuff, Scum. Did you read the Carnegie piece in there?
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SLW first. That’s a core pick, after all.
EXK will be more volatile.
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Question for scum and Jake on the article scum provided a link to:
Couldn’t that be part of the “gold carry trade”?
I remember reading that CBs have a history of loaning AU to each other.
I never was able to prove the veracity of the post’s claims so I’m not wearing a tin foil hat here.
Jake, Yeah, spooky. I read the Carnegie piece as well, prolific reader here. The link ties in well with the out-of-stock PM dealer stories we’ve both been hearing.
Cuervos, My feeling is that much of the Gold “loans” are paper trades only with no actual physical gold available for delivery when the contract comes due. Naked short selling is the MO of the market manipulators. When paper money gets debased gold gets hoarded. My experience has shown that dealers are now paying a premium over spot, which means someone is buying constantly.
Cuervo, I don’t know what to think, frankly, but given the machinations that have taken place recently, I wouldn’t immediately discount anything.
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Late night update:
Gold, pushing $984
Silver, pushing $15.90
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As the resident expert on all things MON, what do you think of a long-MON/short-MOS (options) pair trade over the next few weeks?
Thanks guys.
I just read up on the gold carry trade over the weekend and it explained a lot of the goofy disconnect between what the fundamentals say about the price of Gold and what you end up seeing on the markets…
i.e. Gold makes a run for (fundamentally valid reasons) $1000 and then bam! Something disconnects and it’s in free fall.
DPeez–
Save for the first two letters and a peripheral connection to farming, there’s not much similar between the two, but if you are talking hedging a generic beaten down long with an already “run” short, then I can see the strategy. Problem is that this commodity trade could keep MOS going upward for a while here.
IOW- not sure how much of a hedge it would be.
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Thanks JG.
Perhaps I’ll just hedge MON with itself, since SYT (which Y! lists as a competitor) is worthlessly thin.
DPeez — that’s generally what I do. For example, it did one of it’s notorious volatility dives the other day. I was slow to sell the call, but usually would have done so on the push to the 61.8% fib in the 93 area.
OTOH, I did buy the 75 calls the other day and they are nicely in the green right now.
BTW — looks like MON is about to fill this morning gap as well.
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Impressive port results sir Jake. I am certainly enjoying SLW much.
Where did your latest post go? I clicked on it, and it disappeared.
Picked up another 660 CDE here at $14.1389. I think it bottomed for the day.
I’m starting to feel like the main character of “Tin Cup” as he played that last hole of the tournament. I’ll just keep on swinging until I get it right. My CDE position is now up to 15% of my portfolio and dragging down an otherwise beautiful 153% YTD return.
Dr. Nate — I dunno, it was the damdnest thing… almost like someon “reset” my blog. Published it and then I had to republish it…
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Outdoors — not sure I’d want to be “swinging for the fences” with CDE. Why not take a more respectable pick?
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Simply put, pure stubborness combined with a little bit of faith. Not working out so good, but the rest of my portfolio is moving like lit rocket fuel so it takes the sting out. Eventually, IMO CDE will shake off the reverse split blues and start to reflect the recent change in the price of silver. I feel the beating it took in the financial meltdown was way overdone, but they were overextended and paid for it. Now that their mine is in production I am thinking things will turn around. I’m just keeping you updated so I can say “I told you so” or own my losses like a man.
Outdo — no worries, I got some.
Gotta cover all the bases, especially when there are so few that make acceptable, liquid trading vehicles.
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