CALM and AFAM … rising stars!

I talk about these two stocks quite a bit.  Let’s talk again…

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. [[CALM]] had a nice day today.  This one is HEAVILY shorted.  I checked Yahoo’s statistics, and it has CALM shorted at 14 Million, or 91% of float!!  What?! I mean, CALM is trading near a 52-high, and it’s shorted that heavily?  Squeeze time.

Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]] reached 40 today, actually 41, then closed down just about 39 even.  I raising my entry target.  This one is relatively a small company, but the recent buying interest in this stock tells me we are heading higher. 

Note to self…
I had a good time Surfing on the West Side!

Just as planned!  Last night I posted possible surf spots, so I hope you were at the same beach as me.  It was clear that the biggest swells were on the “west side” with commodities making that “cover on the news/buy on the dip” action the day after the Fed.  Remember, going into the Fed, commodity traders were afraid of a rate hike, those weak hands got shook out.

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As you know, I’ve been very bearish on the shippers for the past 2 months.  However, shippers may have reached a temporary bottom here.  The Baltic Index has been falling too hard.  I expect it to bounce around the 8,000 mark, so keep your eyes on the shippers.  They are oversold, and today they have a mini-relief rally.  Could go on for the next few days.  I almost bought DRYS today, but I will read TBSI’s earnings report first..

TBS International Limited [[TBSI]]

DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]]

Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[EXM]]

Diana Shipping Inc. [[DSX]]

Link to the baltic index chart:  http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

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Hello day traders!  Here’s my surf report for day 1 after that wicked Fed Wave, which gave us a tsunami of a wave for all indexes… +300 on the Dow! You kidding me?  I see some swells developing in the following surf spots.  Remember, you don’t have to paddle and try to catch every wave… you do that, you’ll get too tired.  Just wait for the perfect set, then take it!  Now where are you gonna surf?

NORTH SHORE:  priceline.com Incorporated [[pcln]] looks to start off on a deep gap down.  PCLN is now your correlation stock for the internets. 

• If PCLN gaps up, then buy gapped down stocks that did good yesterday…  AMZN, RIMM.  What I’m hoping for is the other scenario…
• if PCLN continues to slide down (I’m hoping for this wave), get ready to surf some internet stocks on the short side… short Overstock.com, Inc. [[OSTK]] , The9 Limited (ADR) [[NCTY]] , VistaPrint Limited [[VPRT]] , or Sohu.com Inc. [[SOHU]] .  If OSTK opens up big, short it right away.

SOUTH SHORE:  Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) [[YGE]] reports in the morning, and First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]] is looking weak.    FSLR is your correlation stock…

• if YGE has selling pressure + FSLR stays under 269, feel free to short Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) [[YGE]] for the day. 
• If YGE reports and squeezes the shorts, Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) [[YGE]] is your correlation stock to get long the other oversold solars like Canadian Solar Inc. [[CSIQ]] , JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) [[JASO]] , and maybe [[RSOL]] .

WEST SIDE:  USO @ 95 is a special spot for oil.  Oil trades at 119, so I’m prognosticating that it will regain the 120 support and run up a few dollars.  I mentioned earlier in my comments that ALL commodity stocks were sold off heading into the FED meeting yesterday, therefore, look for dip-buying, now that we know the Fed won’t raise rates.  Wednesday we get inventory numbers, and many analyst are thinking oil will drop yet again.  I got my contrian cape on.  Try, GMX Resources Inc. [[GMXR]] , Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] , Patriot Coal Corporation [[PCX]] , International Coal Group, Inc. [[ICO]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] for a bounce.

EAST SIDE:  There’s always the possibility that the rally continues.  If so, make sure all major correlation stocks give you the green flag… CSCO (needs follow through) GOOG (tech), CME (for exchanges), BIDU (for Chinese plays), CAL (for airlines).  You get that set up, then get long any stocks in those sectors.

• If you get the BIDU+CAL breakout combo, you may be able to catch a bounce in PCLN.  Also, get long the stocks that had strong closes yesterday… China Medical Technologies, Inc. (ADR) [[CMED]] , Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]] , Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]] , Under Armour, Inc. [[UA]] , Overstock.com, Inc. [[OSTK]] . 
• however, if we have a bearish day, short stocks that were weak yesterday, like all those girly stocks I mentioned before… IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. [[ICE]] , First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]] , Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] , Wynn Resorts, Limited [[WYNN]] .

Here’s a link to actual surf spots on Oahu.  I like bowls at Ala Moana or Kewalo Basin, and i usually take mainland friends to Duke’s at Waikiki. 

If you have any surf spots you spot tomorrow, leave a comment.  See you at WallStreak, where the waves keep coming!

Note to self… we could also see a relief rally in shippers, like DRYS and TBSI, which are approaching temporary supports.

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Completely sold longs:  HK ( -9.05% at 28.50) – partial and completed

New longs:  PCX (103.68), FCX (78.51)

Added to longs:  GMXR (55.80)

Buying today’s commodity dip, just as planned.  I’m using the numbers on USO, which is very near a strong support at 95.  I sold HK because they report sometime soon.

Note to self… APWR had a mad $4 reversal at the end of the day.  What’s up with that?

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PCLN reported and gave some nice numbers, however, not many investors are impressed.  PCLN guiding revs higher in the middle of a rough economy means they better know some magic, because that seems improbable.

With PCLN down about -15%, that completes the online-booking-bearish-trifector… first was Orbitz reporting, then Expedia’s failure, and now the leader, PCLN.  This is a pretty good short sale signal for the the sector. 

Also, if you’eve been following PCLN, remember that nonsense upgrade at 100 two weeks ago?  Pump and dump? Maybe.

I will not be playing PCLN directly at this moment, but I will use that as my “correlation-stock” to short a lot of the internet retailers.  For example, I have Overstock.com, Inc. [[OSTK]] as my top suspect to short, then there’s The9 Limited (ADR) [[NCTY]] , Sohu.com Inc. [[SOHU]] , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. [[CHKP]] ,  and VistaPrint Limited [[VPRT]] to keep an eye on.  PCLN in the 105-110 range is my cover spot.

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Day’s like this, where the Dow is up +250 on the silly fact that a bunch of dudes sit around a table for a few minutes, is a good time to find what is NOT moving.  Silence can speak volumes… You know, when you’re talking to your wife (or girlfriend/boyfriend/sheep), and she says something then you know you’re fine… but when she DOESN’T say anything, that’s when you should be afraid.

That’s how First Solar, Inc. [[FSLR]] was acting like all day… like an angry girl giving you the silent treatment.  This is not good for solars.  You may want to watch JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) [[JASO]] , Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) [[YGE]] which reports tomorrow morning, Canadian Solar Inc. [[CSIQ]] which is getting weaker and weaker under 30, and SunPower Corporation [[SPWR]] .

Anyone know of any girly stocks today?  I just might short ’em.

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