Trades: GMXR, HK

Completely sold longs:

HK ( +7.20% at 28.42, bought at 26.52)

Partially sold longs:
GMXR ( +6.51% at 62.02, bought at 58.22)

USO is weaksauce today!  Back under 92, which is my sell point… I didn’t think USO would get there that fast.  I probably should have went long airlines as a hedge, or at least short HK.

“Rainbow Falls”, Big Island, Hawaii

Here’s my notes for today!

Swing set-ups:

• Ships – looking for a bounce in the BDI index for the next few weeks, so get long TBS International Limited [[tbsi]] , Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[exm]] , DryShips Inc. [[drys]] , Diana Shipping Inc. [[dsx]] .  Shippers are long if DRYS above 70, add above 74.
• China – China stocks are weak, but for the past 10+ trading days have been falling on LOW volume.  Probably due to Olympics, which is a distraction for the country AND a “sell-on-the-news” event.  Watching for dip-buying power in Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) [[fmcn]] , SINA Corporation (USA) [[sina]] , China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) [[lfc]] .  You can “pair-trade” those by shorting The9 Limited (ADR) [[NCTY]] , China Southern Airlines Limited (ADR) [[ZNH]] , or [[cea]]   on a bounce
• Ags/Chems – if you are long oil stocks, you probably need to short AGS/CHEMS, hopefully on a bounce.  Try Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[sqm]] , Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[ipi]] , Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. [[tnh]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[pot]] , The Mosaic Company [[mos]] .  POT has strong resistance at 185.  Short ags on a test of that area. 
• Solars – look like a great swing long.  Enter first position here, many solars stocks have been forming a base on 1-year support lines!  I will do a more focused post about the solars this weekend.  JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) [[jaso]] , Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) [[yge]] , First Solar, Inc. [[fslr]] , SunPower Corporation [[spwr]] .
• Buy puts in Overstock.com, Inc. [[ostk]] ahead of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. [[anf]] earnings.

Day trade set-ups:

• Oil strength:  short airlines  UAL Corporation [[uaua]] , Continental Airlines, Inc. [[cal]] , or long energy-related Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[hk]] , GMX Resources Inc. [[gmxr]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[ftk]] .  Of the energy plays, coals looked the weakest on Wednesday. 
• Oil weakness (USO under 93)   short Patriot Coal Corporation [[pcx]] , James River Coal Company [[jrcc]]
• Ags/Chems – get long on a breakout Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[sqm]] , Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[ipi]] are the best
• Looking to get long Integral Systems, Inc. [[isys]] , breaking out.
• Looking for a vicious bounce in A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. [[apwr]] … if this one moves up, just get long!!  Surf it hard.
• Market bounces, get long Hansen Natural Corporation [[hans]] , priceline.com Incorporated [[pcln]] , Central Pacific Financial Corp. [[cpf]] , and various tech stocks.

Scanning for day trades in the comments…

Well, I made another clean entry on the bottom of commodity stocks this week.  I know a lot of people don’t believe in technicals and stuff… I don’t put all my trust in them, but I feel they are quite helpful when market volatility reaches extreme levels.  If you haven’t already done so, you can view my Vix under 20 + USO at 92 post as a guide.  I rarely post charts, unless is a Vix.

Right now, I’m wondering if I should take profits in some commodity stocks I bought for a quick 2-day profit.  But, deep inside, I want to hold these for the long run.  I don’t know.  Anyway, today there was significant bounces everywhere, from gold, to ags, to energy, to natty.  Right now I’m long GMX Resources Inc. [[gmxr]] , Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[hk]] (for a contrarian play), Continental Resources, Inc. [[CLR]] , and I cashed out of Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[gg]] today.

Right now, I think its a good time to start rotating back into shipping stocks.  Many of them broke resistances after forming a 7-day base.  I have TBS International Limited [[tbsi]] , Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[exm]] , Diana Shipping Inc. [[dsx]] , DryShips Inc. [[drys]] on my list.  As always, DRYS is our correlation stock, and for now, its short the shippers (or stop loss) when DRYS under 70, and stay long above 70.  I have a breakout for DRYS at 74… keeping them tight!

Anyway, my sentiments stay the same… 1) commodities have only suffered a natural correction and 2) commodities will outperform equities for the next several months.  Until I see something significant to change that, I’m still surfing these stocks.

Completely sold longs:
FXP ( +21.01% @ 91.76, bought at 75.78 two days ago)
GG ( +11.01% @ 33.10, bought at 29.79)

Partially sold longs:
SKF ( +16.45% @  127.60, bought at 109.71)
BOH ( -7.50% @ 54.41, short at 50.46)

Scored a “triple” today!  That just means I closed out 3 stocks with over 10% gains.  I’m so lazy to post the links to the buys.  I basically bought these all on Tuesday with my “Vix under 20, USO at 92 post”.

“Do you know Hawaii” … I will try to teach you guys a little about Hawaii as we go. 

First of all, did you know Barack Obama was born in Oahu, actually, in the same hospital as me?   Kapiolani children’s hospital.  He even went to the most prestigious private school on the island, Punahou, where other famous politicians have graduated (more on this later.  The tuition at Punahou is about $16,000/year from K-12)  Well guess what… I didn’t know that about Obama!  Ha.  I only found out his roots this past week, since at this moment he is on the island at some fundraising dinner where he collected over $1.3 million dollars.  How’d you like to make $1 million eating dinner?  Obviously, politics is my weakness, but thanks to him we’ve had a lot of traffic on this tiny rock.  Can’t wait for him to leave!  Lol.

Here’s an article about Obama’s Hawaii roots.

Now here’s my trading notes for tomorrow, aka, the “Surf Report”:

• Fade the solars OR ride them!  Depending on how CSIQ reports.  JASO reported nice numbers yesterday, but only managed 3% gain.  CSIQ had a squeeze at the end of the day yesterday to pull above $30.  Short CSIQ under 30, especially on weak numbers. 
• Looking for a breakout in Integral Systems, Inc. [[ISYS]] , Natus Medical, Inc. [[BABY]]
• Looking for a breakdown in Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]]
• Looking to buy a dip in China Medical Technologies, Inc. (ADR) [[CMED]]
• As always, short airlines if USO gets above 92.30.  Go for UAL Corporation [[uaua]] , Continental Airlines, Inc. [[cal]] , Southwest Airlines Co. [[luv]] … note, LUV had bad performance yesterday.
• Looking for a bottom bounce in steel and aluminum plays:  United States Steel Corporation [[x]] , Metalico, Inc. [[mea]]
• Looking for a swing long entry into shippers DryShips Inc. [[drys]] , Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[exm]] , TBS International Limited [[tbsi]] , Diana Shipping Inc. [[dsx]] … TBSI has mysteriously large Call buying.  Shippers have consolidated well.  Let’s get DRYS above 69, then buy all shippers.
• Looking for a bounce in China China Southern Airlines Limited (ADR) [[znh]] , [[cea]] , Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) [[fmcn]] , SINA Corporation (USA) [[sina]] … since they will play Ping Pong tomorrow.  Watch Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) [[bidu]] for tomorrow’s trend
• Looking to short Ags/Chems on a bounce:  Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[sqm]] , Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. [[tnh]] , Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[ipi]] , Monsanto Company [[mon]] , The Mosaic Company [[mos]] , Titan Machinery Inc. [[titn]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[pot]] .  Watch POT, its quite oversold.  You can play the oversold bounce, but I want to enter a swing short in Ags.

Scanning for day trades and surf spots in the comments…

I probably will be criticized for this, but I’m looking forward to table tennis in the Olympics.  I expect China to win like 90 metals in that event. LoL.  Here is Wang Hao, and Wang Liqin in action… one will win silver, the other will win gold in my opinion: