Well, I made another clean entry on the bottom of commodity stocks this week. I know a lot of people don’t believe in technicals and stuff… I don’t put all my trust in them, but I feel they are quite helpful when market volatility reaches extreme levels. If you haven’t already done so, you can view my Vix under 20 + USO at 92 post as a guide. I rarely post charts, unless is a Vix.
Right now, I’m wondering if I should take profits in some commodity stocks I bought for a quick 2-day profit. But, deep inside, I want to hold these for the long run. I don’t know. Anyway, today there was significant bounces everywhere, from gold, to ags, to energy, to natty. Right now I’m long GMX Resources Inc. [[gmxr]] , Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[hk]] (for a contrarian play), Continental Resources, Inc. [[CLR]] , and I cashed out of Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[gg]] today.
Right now, I think its a good time to start rotating back into shipping stocks. Many of them broke resistances after forming a 7-day base. I have TBS International Limited [[tbsi]] , Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[exm]] , Diana Shipping Inc. [[dsx]] , DryShips Inc. [[drys]] on my list. As always, DRYS is our correlation stock, and for now, its short the shippers (or stop loss) when DRYS under 70, and stay long above 70. I have a breakout for DRYS at 74… keeping them tight!
Anyway, my sentiments stay the same… 1) commodities have only suffered a natural correction and 2) commodities will outperform equities for the next several months. Until I see something significant to change that, I’m still surfing these stocks.
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Gio,
I have to hand it to you on the shippers – I was dead wrong. Kept expecting the Baltic Dry Index which has declined something like 21 days in row to influence price.
Great call on teh Vix/oil! You’ve been on fire. I should have joined you on FXP when I sold out of my China stocks last week.
everyone is going long aapl, whazzup w/ dat?
AAPL is a short, good for 10 points, in my estimation.
Some of the other bloggers on here are all agog about it long. I’m like WTF? It’s been making lower highs every time, tomorrow could see it hit 180, but after that I expect it to plunge below 120 within a month or two. 202 12/07, 192 5/08, 182 8/14? Limited upside, good downside.
AAPL is too hard.
I rather pick on weak stocks.
Ignoring technicals, AAPL is a short. Fundamentally, I see their growth rates declining in computer and iPod sales, and iPhone sales. If you study economics, every product has a product cycle, and majority of investors/spec money comes in. what stage do you think iPods are?
Howdy OE… you should get a chance to get back in FXP. I’m quite afraid of a Chinese bounce… after they got the gold in Men’s gymnastics.