Couple Of ETFs Going Negative For The Quarter and YTD. Will The Ghost of Crisis Past Hit Europe In 2017?

We are going to publish our next The Week Ahead the first week of January. Until then, here are a couple thoughts.

Each week I run a spreadsheet that tracks the largest ETFs by various asset classes. They include U.S. stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, international equities and U.S. sectors.

Of note in my last update natural gas via UNG turned lower for the year. It has had a massive run and I am interesting on a successful test of the 65 day moving average at $8.44 or a move back above $9. Natural gas always runs up on the start of cold weather and then sells off when it hits. However, this year it is staying could especially in the Midwest. My target for next year on UNG is $12.

Second Europre via EFA turned down for the year. It is weak. Will it finally generate a decent return in 2017? Or will the Ghosts of Crisis Past continue to haunt this asset class. India via PIN turned lower for the year. This country is screwed until its Prime Minister stops messing with its currency.

Last for the quarter Japan via EWJ and Australia via EWA turn lower for the quarter. They are still up YTD by 4.20% and 8.49% through last Friday’s close.

Other quick thoughts. The action is sloppy since November 28th. That said, the week of December 5th to 9th was a strong one. The big question is whether we can get another week like that either this or next week? Right now I am in the camp of sideways action between 2250 and 2300. However, I do feel that we are going to get a print at 20,000 on the Dow either this or next week.