Oversold But Yet To Hit Darkest Before The Dawn

I use several indicators to help with oversold conditions and pukes. Currently we are beyond oversold, puking and maybe moving into dry heaves. Thanks Phil Erlanger for the analogy on dry heaves!

I use a proprietary RSI that is not 14 days. That is the standard one. My version is sub 30 on the S&P 500. Once it breaks 30 then I wait for a move back above to be a buyer.

Second, I use a modified version of Bollinger Bands. Once below -20 we are oversold. The S&P 500 is now at -29.42 as I write. It is rare to hit sub -30. Once or twice a year.

Next I track the Erlanger Big Barf Indicators on a Daily, Weekly and Monthly basis. All are negative.

Last the Erlanger Nantucket Sleighride (ENS) OBOS (overbought/oversold) measure. It has yet to hit oversold on the daily.

So where are we in relation to dawn? My best guess is maybe 3:00 in the morning. The question is whether the sun is rising early due to the proximity to summer? More on this as it unfolds this week.

The best advice I can give here is be careful on shorts and start to make lists of names you want to buy on the long side.