The Meteorological Week Ahead: Indian Summer

Well, the Autumnal Equinox is this Tuesday and the world will officially welcome in Fall. For those wondering, the equinox is that day when the Sun is directly above the equator. The term comes from the latin Aequus (equal) and nox (night), since it had been believed that on this date day and night are of equal lengths (12 hours) at any point in the world. However, this is not exactly true. Rather, the equinox is the day when any two locations at the same distance north and south of the Equator (i.e. 30 N and 30 S) will experience days and nights of equal length.

Moving on, expect a general warm-up this week across the eastern half of the country and a cool-down across the west. The eastern half of the country will see a period of Indian Summer, or a brief return to summer-like conditions before the hammer of Fall slams down.  After a very cool start this morning, most of the major cities will see highs in the mid 70s for the first half of the week, warming into the low 80s for the end of the week.  These temps will be roughly 5-10 degrees above average. The west, as has been true for most of the summer, will be very warm for this time of year due to a persistent offshore flow. Seattle and Portland will reach the mid 80s and mid 90s, respectively. Even perpetually-foggy San Francisco will see temperatures fly into the low 90s Monday and Tuesday, about 20 degrees above average.

On the other hand, the Colorado Rockies will see very cool weather, with measurable snow on the higher peaks and temperatures not climbing out of the 30s and 40s. Areas of the western Dakotas that saw highs in the 90s last week, will cool back towards average with highs in the 60s.

Both projected Cooling Degree Days and Heating Degree Days will climb this week, CDDs due to the warm-up in the West and East and HDDs due to the cool temperatures in the Rockies. CDDs remain the dominant form of population-weighted energy demand, representing 90% of the total degree day total. Figures 1 and 2 below show projected CDDs and HDDs for the upcoming week, respectively.

Figure 1: Projected Cooling Degree Days

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Figure 2: Projected Heating Degree Days

Total population-weighted degree days will climb by 731 to 4419 this week, and increase of 19.8% from last week. Breaking this down, Cooling Degree Days will climb by 16.9% to 4115 while Heating Degree days will climb by 75.9% to 314 from the week-ago period. Heating Degree Days will climb from representing 4.8% of the total Degree Days last week to 7.6% of the total this week, indicating that Fall is indeed on the way. Numerical HDD and CDD is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1: Degree Day Data

	Last Week	This Week	1 week Percent Change
CDDs	3519	4115	+16.9%
HDDs	179	314	+75.9%
Total	3698	4429	+19.8%

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I project that the forecasted degree days will yield an injection of +65 BCF in the EIA storage report to be released October 1 for this week. This would be below the average of +70 BCF for this week, and below last year’s injection of +87 BCF. On average, there are six more weeks remaining in the NG injection season. Once the rollover from Oct ’09 to Nov ’09 contracts occurs this week, NG will be above $4.50/MMBTU, an 80% rally/Contango-driven madness  from its 7-year lows just 3 weeks ago. I think a pullback is in order.

The Tropics

The tropics remain quiet. For yet another week. A large area of disturbed weather named Invest 98l by the NHC is developed by multiple models, but would likely recurve out to sea if it did organize. Right now, it appears very disorganized and is heading towards a region of increased shear. I give it a 30% chance of ever becoming Grace.

The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to move WNW across the open Atlantic but are no threat to re-develop. However, the moisture will move into Florida and South Carolina by mid-week bringing the chance of heavy rain.  A map of the tropical Atlantic is shown below in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Current satellite of the Tropical Atlantic showing generally quiet conditions.

Elsewhere, there really is nothing of concern and none of the models indicate development over the next week. Wind shear will remain high across much of the Atlantic helping to preclude development. This has just not been the season for hurricanes…

Note I: With the hurricane season heating up, Dr. Cane is now on Twitter as DrCane09 since this is often a faster way to provide updates as things quickly change. FOLLOW ME for regular updates regarding the Tropics, Trading, and misc other weather stuff.

Note II: The Hurricane Naming Contest is on the homestretch with the season finale coinciding with the end of the MLB season September 30. Current leaders are shown below.  Everybody needs to put on their rally caps and get into gear…

Rankings 9/20/09

	Points	Points Back	Days to Elimination
1. DPeezy	16	–	–
2. Wabisabi	11	5.0	6
3. TraderCaddy	4	12.0	Playing For Pride
4. Yogi & Boo Boo	3	13.0	Playing For Pride
4. BuffaloUdders	3	13.0	Playing For Pride
6. Jim + Jimmy Hill	1	15.0	Playing For Pride

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