“Stress Test” Will Decide Who Needs Capital. Many Think They All Do

Have an extra cushion of support on behalf of Joey Plummer

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Financial regulators will soon launch a series of “stress tests” to determine which of the largest U.S. banks should get bigger capital cushions in case of a deeper recession, a person familiar with Obama administration plans said on Saturday.

The person, speaking on condition of anonymity, said if institutions were found to need additional capital, financial authorities would provide them with an “extra cushion of support.”

Banks are expected to receive additional information about the tests in the coming week from regulators.

The largest U.S. banks are “well capitalized” for current conditions, the source said, but the Obama administration wants to ensure they can withstand a more severe economic climate and play an important role in helping restart the flow of credit.

Initial plans for the stress tests were announced on February 10 as part of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s bank stabilization plan, but the source on Saturday for the first time linked the tests to additional government support for large banks. That person did not specify what form any extra capital cushion may take.

Little is known about the form of the stress tests, but the person described them as “consistent, forward looking and conservative.”

The Obama administration tried on Friday to ease market fears the government was poised to nationalize some large banks that are struggling with losses and a lack of confidence, notably Citigroup and Bank of America.

Clinton urged China to buy treasuries

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China to continue buying Treasury bonds to help finance President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan.

The two nations’ economies are intertwined and it wouldn’t be in China’s interest if the U.S. were unable to sell its government debt, Clinton said in an interview with Shanghai’s Dragon Television today. China knows it needs a healthy American economy as its biggest export market, she said, adding that the U.S. must take “drastic measures” to stimulate growth.

“We are truly going to rise or fall together,” Clinton said. “By continuing to support American treasury instruments, the Chinese are recognizing” that interconnection.

China, the largest holder of U.S. government debt, boosted purchases by 46 percent last year to a record $696.2 billion as the global recession spurred demand for the securities. The Chinese government said last week it plans to keep buying Treasuries, adding that future purchases will depend on the preservation of their value and the safety of the investment.

China continued to buy the U.S. debt amid a 27 percent increase in its holdings of foreign currencies in 2008. JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted in a Feb. 6 report that China will keep buying Treasuries “not only for the near-term stability of the global financial system, but also because there is no viable and liquid alternative market in which to invest China’s massive and still growing reserves.”

Chinese attempts to diversify from Treasuries into more risk-oriented assets have not fared well. It has lost at least half of the $10.5 billion it invested in New York-based Blackstone, Morgan Stanley and TPG Inc. since mid-2007.

China’s currency reserves of $1.95 trillion are about 29 percent of the world total.

Flying Home

Clinton also pledged that America would not practice protectionism. She said the “Buy American” provision of the stimulus package, which says U.S. goods must be used for infrastructure projects, would be carried out in compliance with existing international trade agreements.

Clinton today wrapped up a weeklong trip to Asia, her first as Obama’s top diplomat, having already stopped in Japan, Indonesia and South Korea. She attended services at a state- sanctioned church, and met with community organizers before starting the trip home. She met U.S. troops at Yokota Air Base in Japan on a refueling stop.

China and the U.S. will continue the bilateral strategic dialogue begun during the Bush administration, expanding it to include security and political issues, Clinton said yesterday after meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.

Prepaid coming out of the shade. Not just for mobsters and drug dealers anymore !

Maybe Tony Soprano was onto something. As the lead mobster in the HBO series “The Sopranos,” he and his crew often turned to prepaid cellphones, presumably to avoid wiretaps.

But now these pay-as-you-go phones are winning over fans for different reasons — recession-battered consumers are buying them as a way to cut costs and avoid the lengthy contracts and occasional billing surprises that come with traditional cellphone plans.

“Frugal is the new chic,” said Joy Miller, 33, a piano teacher in Aubrey, Tex. After almost a decade on contract plans with Verizon Wireless, Mrs. Miller and her husband decided this month to test-drive a few prepaid plans, including MetroPCS. “In today’s economy, it’s not cool to pay $120 a month for a phone. It’s a waste of money.”

Although prepaid phones remain a fraction of the overall mobile phone market, sales of the category grew 13 percent in North America last year, nearly three times faster than traditional cellphone plans, according to Pali Research, an investment advisory firm. For the first time in its history, T-Mobile has been signing up more new prepaid customers than traditional ones. And Sprint Nextel is betting that a new flat-rate prepaid plan will help it wring more value from its struggling Nextel unit.

Into the Goulash we go

After building quietly for months, the next stage of the global financial crisis is upon us, with the economies of Eastern Europe the latest to be hit. Hungary’s stock market fell by 7 per cent yesterday and its Czech equivalent by nearly 4 per cent – while Poland, earlier down by almost six 6 per cent, rallied only once Warsaw had sold some of its euros on foreign exchange markets to prop up the zloty.

The trigger for this chaos was comments on Tuesday from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agencies, articulating the concerns many observers have had in recent months. Having enjoyed a boom in the past decade, demand for the region’s exports has collapsed and investment with it, while job losses are rising – one reason why not all the Poles have yet left Britain for home.

All this means that doubts over whether the governments and companies of Central and Eastern Europe will be able to service their debts are very much to the fore. Much of the borrowing in these countries during the bubble was not done in their own currencies but in others, such as the euro and the Swiss franc, which means that there will almost certainly be defaults.

The zloty, for example, has lost a third of its value against the euro since last summer, with Hungary’s forint down 23 per cent and the Czech crown down by about 17 per cent in the same period.

The impact of these debt defaults will be felt fiercely in some Western European economies, particularly Austria, whose banks have lent the equivalent of a quarter of the country’s GDP to the region. Sweden’s banks are also heavily exposed. Consultancy Capital Economics calculates that Swedish banks have lent $90 billion (£63 billion) – nearly one fifth of Sweden’s GDP – to “high-risk” countries, mainly in the Baltics, while the banking systems of many of the worst-hit economies, including those of Estonia, Slovakia and Lithuania, are now almost entirely foreign-owned.

While Raiffeisen and Erste Bank, of Austria, are regarded as the two institutions most significantly at risk, it is not just the Viennese who risk seeing their capital waltz off into oblivion. ING, the Dutch bank, Commerzbank, of Germany, and Société Générale, of France – which owns the Russian Rosbank – all saw their shares fall yesterday amid mounting concerns over their exposure to the region. Italy’s UniCredit and Belgium’s KBC are also heavily exposed.

Apart from the damage to some Western European banks, other companies may also be wounded, such as Telekom Austria, which expanded east amid tough competition in their home markets. And there are other ways in which contagion could spread. Manufacturers in Germany – the linchpin of that country’s economy – will suffer as Eastern European rivals enjoy a boost in competitiveness as their currencies collapse in value against the euro.

The bursting of this bubble may damage Britain less severely than other EU nations. While Irish buy-to-let investors were buying up most of Bratislava, Austrian banks were buying their Romanian equivalents and German and French manufacturers were opening plants from Bucharest to Brno, the only British activity in the region seemed to consist of flying to such locations for stag weekends.

That is not to say that this crisis will not drop us in the goulash, too. The crisis was already highlighting the inflexibility of eurozone membership, particularly for those less competitive member states such as Italy and Portugal, who – unlike Britain and Sweden – are unable to devalue their way out of their problems. This has not gone unnoticed – and, in a speech last night, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, the ECB executive board member, was muttering ominously that the ability of some EU countries to devalue their currency, gaining an economic advantage, was putting the single market’s integrity at risk.

Taken to their logical conclusion, his comments sound dangerously like a call to protectionism.

On a break of 750 we have a count down to 600 S&P

Reading the Tea Leaves from across the pond

SSDF

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Senate and House Democrats who steer financial-industry legislation clashed over having the government take over some banks as a way to help lenders that have been hammered by the worst economic slump in 75 years.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said yesterday some banks may have to be taken over for “a short time,” and his House counterpart, Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, along with Republican Senator Jon Kyl rejected having the government step in to run banks.

“I don’t welcome that at all, but I could see how it’s possible it may happen,” Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” broadcast this weekend. “I’m concerned that we may end up having to do that, at least for a short time.”

Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., which received $90 billion in U.S. aid in four months, tumbled as much as 36 percent yesterday on concern the U.S. may take over the banks. The Obama administration in response said a “privately held” banking system is the “correct way to go.”

Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, also said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has “an awful lot of leeway” in interpreting how the executive compensation restrictions he wrote into the economic stimulus legislation will be applied for banks that take federal aid.

Dodd’s statement gives Geithner the flexibility to say the rules don’t apply to firms that participate in the public-private partnership Treasury announced Feb. 10 to buy banks’ toxic assets, but only to companies that get cash injections under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Treasury Questions

“That’s one the Treasury has to respond to,” Dodd said. “That’s the kind of question that really ought to be reserved for them.”

Dodd softened his Feb. 5 opposition to nationalizing U.S. banks, when he told reporters he didn’t think it was time for the government to take over Bank of America, which had fallen to the lowest level in New York trading since 1984.

A possible government takeover has gained support. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Financial Times this week that the U.S. may have to temporarily nationalize some banks until the industry is restructured. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Budget Committee, said on ABC’s “This Week” Feb. 15 he wouldn’t reject the idea of nationalizing the banks.

The Obama administration turned aside questions about a U.S. takeover of banks, saying a “privately held banking system is the correct way to go, ensuring that they are regulated sufficiently by this government,” White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said yesterday at a briefing. “That’s been our belief for quite some time and we continue to have that.”

Frank, Kyl

Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who heads the House panel that crafts banking legislation and often collaborates with Dodd, said he didn’t see the likelihood U.S. banks would be nationalized, and Geithner’s bank bailout plan should be given time to take effect.

“If that works, then we don’t have to go beyond it,” Frank said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Senator Jon Kyl, the second-ranking Republican and a member of the Finance Committee, agreed with Frank, saying nationalizing U.S. banks is “out of the question” and isn’t going to happen.

“I don’t think it’s something the market has to worry about,” Kyl, an Arizona Republican, said yesterday in a telephone interview, after Dodd spoke. “There are plenty of tools that we have short of that to deal with the crisis.”