iBankCoin
Joined Feb 3, 2009
1,759 Blog Posts

Consumer Credit Prior # -$7.9b. Market expects -$3.5b. Actual # -$6.6b

This monthly measure of consumer debt is volatile and subject to massive revisions. It is also released well after every other consumer spending indicator, including weekly chain store sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, retail sales, and personal consumption. For these reasons, the market almost never reacts to the consumer credit report.

Consumer credit is broken down into three categories: auto, revolving (ie, credit card), and other. Since we already have indications on total consumer spending well before this release, there is little to be gained from learning what portion of spending was financed through acquisition of debt. Periods of strong spending can be accompanied by relatively weak credit growth and vice versa, so this measure fails even as a coincident or lagging indicator.

More information on this number

Chart of Consumer Credit

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Half Time Reoprt & Obama Announces Economic Recovery Advisory Board

Obama: I am grateful for the extraordinary talent of these men and women….
3.6 million Americans wake up every day wondering how to provide for their children….
The situation could not be more serious…
Now is the time for congress to act…
This is not an abstract debate…
Americans are counting on us. We are here to work for them….
The problem is accelerating not decelerating….
Half the jobs lost have been lost in the last couple of months…
Americans did not choose more of the same in November.
they sent us here to make a change.
They expect us to act…
there are no silver bullets…
A bill is absolutely necessary…. We can continue to improve upon it…
We need to repair our infrastructure and achieve energy independence…
This process is just the beginning…
Put simply I created this board to put voices forward beyond the Washington echo chamber….
The board is headed by Paul Volcker…he has steered the economy through some of the worst economic times…
we have Austin Goolsby…one of the brightest economists who has advised me for some time…
I look forward to their inputs as we jump start the economy…

Volcker: We all share a sense of urgency…I can not imagine the congress will not share this same sense of urgency….

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TLB, MI, RF, SNV, BAC, STI, MPG

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Unusual Volume
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PPT / Accumalation 3, Hybrid Daily/Weekly Change 10%, Hybrid Score 3, & Relative Strength 3

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Headlines:

GE’s Triple A Unsustainable

Pershing Square Down Large. William Ackman tells investors losses mount to 89.5%

Will AAPL’s rally continue ?

Moderates seek approval of stimulus bill

World Exchanges close firmly in the green

Commodities Board

Pork Editorial

Editorial on Obama’s Leadership

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Bull and Bear Round Table

Investors are perplexed to say the least. The news is dire and continues to get worse as of late, yet the market is resisting to go lower than the October – November lows.

Some articles are dated, but relevant for your consideration.

6 Signs of a bottom

5 More signs of a bottom

Another look at why we may have bottomed

Other analysts point to a recent increase in consumer savings rate; (2.9% increase.)
Lower oil prices.
Multiple bottoms near the lows
Cheaper evaluations
Lower inflation rates

Is it too early to buy financial stocks ?

Now for some bearish outlooks

A Marc Faber Pod Cast

A Mini Gross Depression

This post is not an argument to buy or sell.

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Jobs Report comes in @ 598k. Unemployment rate @ 7.6%

U.S. Jobs Report is recorded @ 598k. Unemployment rate is 7.6%
Dow futures spike from up 25 to up over 100. Treasuries remain unchanged.
Expectations were in a range of 525k-700k, basically a 16 year high.
If you count part time workers, workers going back to school, and workers who have given up looking for work; the unemployment rate is probably in the range of 12-14%

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Market Movers

Fertilizer stocks break out yesterday spurring options activity

Fertilizer company Mosaic gained more than 6 percent and is attracting some call buying Thursday, ahead of appearances at two major investor conferences in coming weeks.

The call activity is taking place at the March 40 and 45 strikes, the latter drawing 7,000 contracts traded against open interest of 4,418 earlier today, according to OptionMonster’s tracking systems.

U.K. joins Germany in manufacturing woes

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — U.K. manufacturing fell for a 10th month, the worst streak of contraction in almost three decades, and insolvencies rose in the fourth quarter as the recession deepened.

Manufacturing production dropped 2.2 percent in December from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Individual insolvencies in England and Wales rose 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter to 29,444, the highest since 2006, the government’s Insolvency Service said in a separate report.

Industrial output plunges in Germany

German industrial output has seen a record fall after a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity.

Output plunged by 4.6% in December from the previous month, figures from the Economy Ministry showed.

It was the steepest decline since May 1989 and was much worse than the 2.5% fall expected by analysts.

Industrial output was likely to remain weak for the next few months, given the slump in demand for manufactured goods, the Economy Ministry said.

U.S. is exploring conversion of preferred shares into convertible preferred shares in major bank steak holdings

(Reuters) – U.S. officials are examining ways to convert government stakes in banks into ordinary shares as banks accumulate losses, the Financial Times said, citing people close to the discussions.

Policymakers are considering an idea that the government change its existing holdings in the banks, which have taken the form of preferred shares — non-voting stock that carries a fixed dividend — into convertible preferred shares that could be converted into common stock, the paper said.

Under this proposal, the shares would automatically convert into common equity if there was a decline in the bank’s health, as measured by its tangible equity ratio, for example, the paper reported.

The government may also make future capital injections in the form of such convertible preferred shares, the paper said.

Irish economy seen as the worst within the E.U.

For 15 years, Ireland’s economy boomed, but today it is the country most severely hit by recession in the Eurozone. Every five minutes, a job is lost. When the property bubble burst, Irish banks had to pay the price. In Limerick, computer giant Dell is shedding 1900 jobs, closing its plant and moving to Poland.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister presents students with business awards, but with unemployment at 8%, students are worried about their future.The government is about to take some unpopular decisions – Irish tax payers will soon be handed a large bill. The French took to the streets for far less; how the Irish respond remains to be seen.

Bankruptcies on the rise in the U.K.

A record number of people in England and Wales were declared bankrupt during the final quarter of 2008 and company liquidations soared by more than 50 per cent, figures showed today.

Taxpayers overpay for TARP investments

WASHINGTON – The Bush administration overpaid tens of billions of dollars for stocks and other assets in its massive bailout last year of Wall Street banks and financial institutions, a new study by a government watchdog says.

The Congressional Oversight Panel, in a report released Friday, said last year’s overpayments amounted to a taxpayer-financed $78 billion subsidy of the firms.

Europe joins the Asian markets in a rally of hope that America will pass its stimulus bill quickly

Stocks in Europe and Asia climbed, extending their second straight weekly advance, and U.S. index futures increased on optimism that government measures will help revive the global economy.

BNP Paribas SA and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. gained more than 2.3 percent as a U.S. Treasury official said details of a financial-recovery plan will be announced in three days. Volvo AB surged 13 percent after saying it would deepen costs cuts and pay a dividend. Infineon Technologies AG and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA advanced more than 5.7 percent on results that beat analysts’ estimates

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European banks looking for financial assistance

A group of six banks, including Italy’s UniCredit SpA and Austria’s Raiffeisen International Bank Holding AG, have pressed the European Union to organize financial aid for countries on its eastern fringes like Romania and Ukraine.

The banks, which have operations in central and eastern Europe, requested a 12-point assistance program for the region ranging from U.S. dollar and euro-denominated loans for banks to guarantees for customer deposits from organizations such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, according to a Dec. 1 letter sent to the European Commission. The program may also include help to bolster capital ratios at regional lenders.

Thailand said they will not bailout auto parts makers

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said his government won’t guarantee loans for foreign automakers that manufacture vehicles and parts in Thailand.

“Our plan at the moment is not to provide specific assistance to individual companies,” Abhisit told reporters today in Tokyo during a three day visit to Japan. “What we will do is to provide the best environment we can for the industries to be able to carry on with minimum impact as far as demand and employment is concerned.”

General Motors Corp. will seek loan guarantees from the Thai government to prevent the delay of a new diesel-engine plant, Steve Carlisle, the company’s head of Southeast Asia, said in a statement Feb. 4. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, may eliminate more jobs in Thailand if auto sales continue to slump, the Bangkok Post cited Ninnart Chaithirapinyo, vice chairman of the company’s local unit, as saying Feb. 4.

Signs of recovery not seen at the worlds largest car maker

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, said its loss this year may be three times earlier estimates as car sales in the U.S. and Japan plunge and a stronger yen erodes earnings.

Toyota, which today lost the top ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, said its operating loss in the year ending March may total 450 billion yen ($4.95 billion). The Toyota City, Japan-based company’s previously estimated a 150 billion yen shortfall.

Auto suppliers are looking for a bailout

A “Gross mini depression” need trillions in spending

Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. may slump into a “mini depression” unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth.

“This economy needs support from the government, a check from the government in the trillions,” Gross said today in a Bloomberg Television interview from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “There is a potential catastrophe if the U.S. government continues to focus on billions of dollars.”

Senate skips Dinner with the family to hammer out details on stimulus bill

In an uncertain reach across party lines, Senate moderates struggled for a compromise on economic stimulus legislation Thursday as the government spit out grim new jobless figures and President Barack Obama warned of more bad news ahead.

With partisan tensions rising, several Republican attempts to remake the bill — with higher tax cuts, lower spending and fresh relief for homeowners — failed on party-line votes.

“This is the moment for leadership that matches the great test of our time,” Obama said Thursday night as the Senate plodded through a fourth day of debate on the legislation at the heart of his economic recovery plan. Earlier, he declared, “The time for talk is over. The time for action is now.”

Asia advances on the back of the U.S. rally

Asian stocks rose, led by technology companies and banks, as the weaker yen lifted earnings prospects for Japanese electronics makers and as investors speculated the U.S. will announce its plan to ease the financial crisis.

Canon Inc., which gets a third of its sales from the Americas, advanced 3.9 percent in Tokyo as the yen traded near a four-weak low. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. gained 2.9 percent after a U.S. Treasury official said President Barack Obama’s financial-recovery plan will be unveiled next week. BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s largest oil company, added 0.9 percent in Sydney after crude jumped to the highest in a week.

“The yen’s depreciation is something investors are pleased with, because the stronger local currency is one of the main reasons Japanese companies have had to cut forecasts,” Soichiro Monji, chief strategist at Tokyo-based Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., which manages about $53 billion, said. “People here are eagerly waiting for details of the U.S.’s financial bailout.”

Japan Rises on Weaker Yen

Japan stocks rose, extending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average’s second-straight weekly advance, as the weaker yen lifted the earnings prospects for makers of cars and electronics.

Honda Motor Co., which gets more than half its sales from North America, jumped 3.2 percent after the yen fell to a one- month low. Olympus Corp., a camera maker that counts Europe as its biggest overseas market, soared 4 percent. Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan’s No. 1 developer, sank 3.8 percent after a smaller peer’s bankruptcy highlighted funding concerns for the industry.

The Nikkei 225 climbed 152.70, or 1.9 percent, to 8,102.35 as of 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index rose 7.64, or 1 percent, to 794.05. The Nikkei was set for a 1.4 percent gain this week, while the Topix was poised to end the week little changed.

Despite weak economic outlook Australia opens with a rally on the slashing of interest rates

Australia’s central bank slashed its forecasts for economic growth and inflation and said interest rates at the lowest level in more than four decades will “provide significant stimulus” to offset weaker export demand.

Gross domestic product will rise 0.25 percent in the 12 months through June, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which in November predicted growth of 1.5 percent for the same period. GDP will gain 0.5 percent through 2009 and 2.5 percent next year, the bank said today in Sydney.

To ward off the nation’s first recession since 1991, Governor Glenn Stevens has slashed the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points since early September to a 45-year low of 3.25 percent. The government is also working to boost domestic consumption by pledging A$42 billion ($27 billion) in handouts to families and for infrastructure.

“While the international situation is likely to remain difficult for some time, the combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies now in place will help to cushion the Australian economy from the contractionary forces coming from abroad,” the bank said in its quarterly policy statement.

Stocks that moved after yesterday’s closing bell

Commodities Board

Asia/Pacific Exchanges

European Exchanges

This mornings stocks on the move

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