I will be back with more in-depth analysis this weekend. For now, here is a brief takeaway from this week.
As always, if the video below is too small to watch, you can simply double-click the screen and watch it on YouTube.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd2ENwAIdWQ 450 300]r Comments »Yes, as a matter of fact, I do have marbles.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwMIot_hbZ8&feature=related 450 300]r__________
I added more to my $SHLD stake, and now have a full position in the name. I believe the stock remains poised for a massive short squeeze.
All trades are timestamped inside The PPT.
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES/ETF’s: 60%
CASH: 40%
Comments »Dow 50,000 4TW!!! (with Gold at $10,000..)
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaG2Acg8n60 450 300]r Comments »I was out of pocket a few days ago when I bought a full position in $WPRT. Here is my thinking on the trade:
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The bears have been lured into many traps over the past several weeks. Their eagerness to short at the first sign of weakness has been readily foiled throughout this uptrend. At some point, the bears will be correct. One way to avoid being too eager of a bear, as quaint as it sounds, is to use a simple support trendline.
On my daily S&P 500 chart, seen below, you will see that despite how heavy the market feels right now, it is still holding that support line (light blue) dating back to the beginning of the uptrend on September 1st. Should we lose that support trendline, my first move is to immediately raise more cash and to lock in profits on my key winners ($ATPG, $WYNN, $GS, etc) so as to avoid turning a winner into a loser. Of course, should support continue to hold, I will look for longs setting up.
Thus, maintaining your focus and agility is of the highest importance at this point in time.
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In October of 2009, light sweet crude oil hit a high of $82.43/barrel. At the close of trading on Thursday, October 14th, 2010, crude was priced at $82.69/barrel. Thus, as you can also see in the weekly chart below, crude oil has more or less been dead money for investors over the past year.
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The money trade has been to buy crude around $70, and below, and then take profits and initiate shorts at roughly $80, and above. Slam dunk, no? Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, we all could have gone all in on $DDRX in March of 2009 and rode the puppy up from $0.20/share to the mid-$30’s, where $GMCR and $PEET got into a bidding war over the firm, for good measure.
While the “obvious” crude trade outlined and illustrated above appears to be alive and well, a look at he daily chart could be giving us subtle hints that the range may soon break. In my view, the odds are starting to tilt in favor of the range resolving to the upside. This consolidation at the upper end of the range is by far the most orderly that we have seen thus far. When you combine that with the fact that this trading range has become increasingly ubiquitous, you have the ingredients for a not-so-obvious breakout that needs to be monitored closely.
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