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Monthly Archives: May 2013

Appreciating the Big Cat’s Symmetry

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The price action in industrial giant Caterpillar is encouraging this week, especially considering the stock had been under intense selling pressure since February.

On the updated daily chart below, within the past two weeks the stock has moved from puncturing the lower Bollinger Band to the top of the upper one today. The issue now becomes holding the move and making a higher lower into next week, as the 50-day moving average smooths out and eventually turns up. The overall downtrend has yet to be negated, but bulls avoided the initial bear flag rollover, unlike the precious metals and miners.

Should the technical improvements continue, it bodes particularly well for the rotation thesis out of the defensives and into the cyclicals.

Watch this.

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CAT

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The Deep, Cool Secrets of Disneyland

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I still think the Disney stock is priced to near-perfection here. But there must be something levitating it besides QE, so let’s look at some secrets of the mystical theme park business (and much, much more).

At any rate, the firm reports earnings tonight after the bell. I had been wildly bullish for a long-term breakout of the stock in this blog dating back several years.

But I would hold off on allocating fresh capital on the long side until we get into the summer months, where I will likely be looking for another long-term entry point.

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Source

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Beware the Knee-Jerk News Trade

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is in the news for secretly undergoing lap-band weight loss surgery a few months back. The LAP-BAND® Adjustable Gastric Banding System is one of the premier products sold by Allergan (AGN).

So, should we rush out and buy AGN based on this news, speculating that many others will follow Christie into this type of weight-loss surgery? Often times, being hyper sensitive to news flow leads to traders making mistakes.

Here is an excerpt from my Weekly Strategy Session in late-April, with the original chart I presented. Afterwords, note the updated chart.

3. Continue to Be Precise with Stock Selection, Even within a Sector

Allergan has earnings coming up this week, on May 1st. However, I want to use the chart to illustrate two points. First, the market remains selective as a whole in terms of breakout plays and quality long setups. As you can see, below, on the daily chart, we are looking at a head and shoulders topping price pattern with a bearish volume pattern. The earnings reaction is a wildcard, to be sure, and could lead to a gap higher, for all we know. But the example here beyond illustrating that the market remains selective is that even winning healthcare/medical technology stocks like Allergan are starting to act tired and indicate a mature rally.

AND NOW THE UPDATED CHART:

I still would not touch this, as the head and shoulders confirmed and we could be looking at a bear flag before rolling over again. That carries more significance than the news.

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AGN

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EARLY Recap of Stock Market Action This Morning {Video}

The gentleman in this video gives an excellent recap of how surprising the stock market action has been this year. 

Cleveland’s local ABC affiliate caught an interview with Charles Ramsey, the man who found Amanda Berry & Gina DeJesus.

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Just When Apple Longs Were Ready to Turn to the Bottle…

…not only does the stock rally, but they can still turn to the bottle, or flask, this time while staying in character.

Introducing the iFlask, as seen at Gizmodo.com. Yes, this is a real thing.

Every self respecting person needs to own a flask but the problem with flasks is that they almost always look like, well, the owner of the flask has an alcohol problem. If you’re trying to sneak alcohol into anywhere, you’ll always get caught with a flask. But! If your flask is shaped like an iPhone, you’d be in the clear!

The iFlask has been a concept for some time but now you can finally buy it. Made out of polyethylene and polycarbonate, the iPhone-shaped flask can hold up to 5 ounces of liquid. That may be a little on the low side but 5 ounces is better than zero ounces once your 10 ounce flask gets confiscated. $25 [iFlask via DesignTAXI]

Turning to the chart, the monthly timeframe below indicates a dragonfly doji candlestick printed for the month of April. After the steep correction since September 2012, the dragonfly doji puts us on watch for an upside reversal, provided those lows can hold and bulls build on this recent rally. So far, so good on that front, though you can be sure there are tons of stop-losses just below those $385 lows. In fact, I doubt bulls want to see Apple back below $400 anytime soon.

The daily chart still features declining 50 and 200-day moving averages, which means even if the recent lows are good lows you can expect random and sizable gaps in either direction.

Indeed, a few swigs of booze from the iFlask might be in order to work through the turbulence.

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AAPL

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