The Imperial Inquisition
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I expect an inside day and/or doji day today that will produce a minor bounce. If the market moves beyond box #1 and into box #2, it is deemed ‘significant’. In most cases, today’s close will determine what I will do for Wednesday, and I am giving the market a chance. I am still 75% long, and suffered only minor casualties to the tune of -0.3%. Even on such “disastrous” days, you can still come as close to breakeven as possible.
Is the market still intact? Yes, but it all depends on today’s (and Wednesday’s) action as I’d give the market a maximum of 2 days to redeem itself. Since the channel was violated and the gap filled (on the SPX), any move below 920 is considered ‘dangerous’. A move and close above 933 will bring the market back within the 15 degree ascending flag. I considered yesterday’s selling force weak, therefore, I am still 75% long and in 25% cash.
During time of uncertainty or consolidation, I keep an eye on the individual sectors (XLF, XLE, XLB, XLV, XLI, XLK, XLU, XLP, XPY). I also look at the world markets, particularly the European markets (DAX, CAC, FTSE, MIBTEL, SMSI) since their charts are under the most pressure.
The following sectors look fine: XLE, XLK, XLU
The following sectors are testing their lower trendlines: XLF, XLB, XLY, XLI
The following sectors broke their nearest lower trendline: XLY, XLV
With the exception of Spain (SMSI) and Italy (MIBTEL), the other European markets are either testing their lower trendlines (FTSE, DAX) or have already broken their nearest support (CAC).
In short, the current outlook is “neutral”. Keep those positions small and have some cash handy.
Good stuff!
excellent
Thanks CA.
Will try to stay nimble. Only saving grace today was my nat gas play.
I like the big picture context. Thanks!
Very nice CA very nice…. Any thoughts on EEV ? You picked up ACAS yesterday any indication where they are headed with debt obligations or bk proceedings ?
CA, Thanks so much for those SPX charts and explanation!! Patience and watch the market. You are a first class act!!
Ohhhhh! A late question that I just thought about. (Sorry it was not included on your last post.) It’s an emotion control or psychological type of question. I guess my brain is wired in such a way that I expect to win every trade. Then again, a part of me knows that is not realistic in trading as I have read. My question: What is your winning percentage? Include the loser trades that you get-rid-of (like a stop-out) instantly when the stock does not breakout like you thought. Also, I read an article somewhere that said something like this: If a trader wins more than 50% of his trades his performance is better than 80% of the traders. Is this true? Thanks again!!
EMKR looks about ready to blow up:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EMCORE-Awarded-Solar-Panel-iw-15534522.html
Already up in premarket.
Excellent.
very good stuff CA…..you mustr never sleep
ACAS is heading higher yet again!
Nergo – already answered that. I think in Q&A #2.
TSTR – will start building a position in the .80’s if it dips.
Satellite launch play: http://www.terrestar.com/
NEPH – look at yesterday – simple manipulation where all stops were taken out and someone who wanted a lot of shares cheap was able to get them…
Make sure you manage your risk with these munchkin-cap stocks.
Especially true with penny stocks. They’re easy to push around by one big hand.
watch CYCC
HAFC is wins again PM, CA win!
NEPH – Took MAYBE 200000 shares to start that move – if they owned the shares at .10 cents (very possible). It took all of $20k to crush the longs.
CA – do you like VRSN or OMC on the daily? Both are basing…
great post CA, very helpful, just finished adding the sectors and european symbols to my favorite list, thanks man
Hey CA,
great post man. How long are you holding HAFC or what’s your target on that one? Thanks.
FNSR – your mom always told you to manage your risk. Stops suck.
XTNT now is BTFO! This is one crazy stock
CENX is doing fine here… starting a second leg here
retox – new fuckery in NEPH
ALD looking to break soon (CA’s buy yesterday)
Bought KV/A $3.24
xtxi another NG play
MEXP
screw it – I’m back in at .36
MEXP – parabolic BTFO
SAY
CA, what do you think about API.to here, is it ready to BTFO?
SYNM…good volume – i own it.
VM!
MEXP – MM is walking this up. My orders did not show on the ladder and the fills were odd. In @ .36 / dumped a bunch at .40
Will stay in with the rest as long as the MM is on my side.
fin – API.to, possibly
Great call on KV/A CA.
Great timing! Very impressive!
Sold HBAN $4.43 cash raise
ACAS breaking down
ISTA – sheesh – BTFO already…
Sold HALf CENX $7.83
Sold HAFC $2.47
Sold DVAX $1.58
any interest in CPD – Caraco Pharmaceutical Labs?
Anybody watching FNM and FRE? solid volume, nice moves.
Sold KV/A $3.22. dud
PWER could go @ 1.60
Goat fuck…MTXX…wow that sucks…!
lol @ MTXX
Interesting new way to sell a home
http://www.luxist.com/2009/06/15/florida-couple-tries-raffle-approach-to-unload-their-mansion/?icid=webmail%7Cwbml-aol%7Cdl4%7Clink4%7Chttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.luxist.com%2F2009%2F06%2F15%2Fflorida-couple-tries-raffle-approach-to-unload-their-mansion%2F
MTXX
I remember telling my wife not to use Zicam years ago – lost sense of smell is NOT NEW info. Goog “zicam lost sense of smell”
These fuckers should get sued out of business.
Hey CA,
I’m going to the horse track this weekend – Any chance you can share your strategy?
That’s why… my buddy was complaining about not being able to smell, and he was Rx’d Zicam right before that! I smell a huge lawsuit!
Sold other half CENX $7.69
CA
Are you still holding ACAS ? When are you going to sell or are you going to buy more ?
CA..you battening down the hatches here laddie..I am…kicking out the biotech hand-grenades..upgrading to more quality, and more short side exposure via TZA, TYP.
hey imbecile, read yesterday’s post for info about acas.
also, he went through his whole horse racing strategy the day after he made his winnings. get off your lazy asses, afford yourselves a few clicks of the mouse, and find it yourself rather than making him type it all up again.
ACAS ex-dividend date is the 18th. Tomm. is last day to be share-holder of record. ACAS WILL SELL OFF AFTER!!!
Know how to play it…
http://www.sec.gov/answers/dividen.htm
ACAS target was $4.20. And that was yesterday.
PT – I explained the “strategy” in a previous post.
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Cash level at 50%.
ALOT OF BS ABOUT ACAS…
CA,R u going to sell all?????
just i got FAZ and SRS….
you sound like you’re unloading a lot of your longs
MTXX FDA letter:
http://www.businessinsider.com/zicam-disaster-turns-out-snorting-cold-medicine-is-a-bad-idea-2009-6
MTXX,it was perfect short setup in interaday……
I said yesterday that I was going to sell shit today.
Bulls keep trying to capture the 930 area….the tell today above or below
ISTA
Blast
The
Fuck
Off
I’ve bought some SRS and are ready to buy some SKF.
MTXX
add an insider selling probe to that shit…
I’m in SRS @19 — What’s your target and timeline?
SRS shortterm target is slighty higher…
Longterm target is ZERO!
Gotta love that risk/reward hahah.
brilliant.
PPHM finally!
My SRS bought @ 19.90 is a small position for a swing trade.
IYR looks weak and if the 50 day MA is breached the way is paved to the 30.20 on level on the IYR.
Nice on PPHM
PPHM
Awesome call:
in at .98
12:30 today TORONTO and TUSTIN, Calif. , June 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: PPHM) today reported that researchers will present data at the SNM 2009 Annual Meeting showing that its brain cancer agent Cotara(R) specifically localizes to brain tumors at high concentrations with minimal radiation exposure to other organs. Cotara is a targeted monoclonal antibody linked to a radioisotope being developed as a potential new treatment for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), a deadly form of brain cancer. The results reported today from an ongoing dosimetry study at U.S. brain cancer centers show that in patients dosed in the first two cohorts of the study, the concentration of Cotara in brain tumors was on average more than 300-fold higher than in other normal organs. In addition, these patients have all either met or exceeded the expected median survival time of six months for recurrent GBM patients. Cotara is currently being tested in this Phase I dose response and dosimetry trial and in a Phase II clinical trial in recurrent GBM patients.
Sold XTEX $3.81
Sold RAD $1.45
Sold JSDA $1.11
Bought SKF $42.15
XLF breaking down from symmetrical triangle.
Sold ALD $3.31
Sold IO $3.18
wow….good going ca……keep it up
850 here we come.
Still short BDK from Monday open – UGLY UGLY chart.
Sold PWAV $1.57
CA, not shorting yet??
No
It’s important to look for a well timed entry to shorts. We will propably see some sort of rebound/bear flag develop which may provide a good entry for shorts.
PPHM
wave 2
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/?p=547
Red #3
loving that PPHM retox
PPHM is right
sergeifreud called it fast!
That’s why I love the PPT
Starting to feel like the circus is getting low on ride tickets.
i’m not freaking out. patiently waiting. if the SPX keeps goin down that’s one thing, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this turn into a doji day in the next 2 hrs
CA — what about SPM.TO? BTFO
Kafka looks ok: http://i587.photobucket.com/albums/ss311/chartaddict1/SPMto.png
SPM just got a pump on BNN this morning and that’s why the jump.
ES – bot at 909.50 – pennant on 5 minute
MTXX resumes trading
ROFL! jesus..
out ES 910.75
Die MTXX DIE! Lying bastards.
Isnt the whole sense of smell thing listed as a side effect on pretty much all nasal inhalents?
CA, You were saying a few days ago that FAZ looked good and that was about 50 cents ago…would you still buy this one or just hold it if you already got it?
LR
I am waiting on all fronts = I am not buying the dip or shorting anything.
ISTA!!!
FRPT..acting well
ditto on KV/A…
Selling XRM and CNXT by the close.
PARD popped last 30 mins….
MTXX gets the “homo hammer”.
Lol, I wonder if that’s a potential “power dip”.
ARM with a volume spike fyi
I just went long TEN at 10. Watching closely.
Can TEN hit eleven again?
100% cash
Right on the cusp @ spx 911.98!
100% cash..your timing is very good…..trading style rocks……justim holding FAZ and SRS…60% cash…1.5% up today
And…I’m up +1.8% today.
congrats CA, impressed how you can maneuver your holdings in this kind of environment with a gain no less… rock on! look forward to your analysis
nice quick move to cash kid. congrats. well done.
thx to a 40% gain in HAFC for me + avoiding the carnage in the last 3 hours.
Good timing on almost everything today. And most of the dollar stocks didn’t move in tandem with the general market, which bought me A LOT of time.
i love that MTXX turned over the entire float today.
twice.
I like NGAS here.
MTXX chart is insane: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MTXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40809828600
Have to go back to the 2001 Sept low to find support. LOL!!
Also, MTXX yahoo msg board provided some intra-day entertainment.
MTXX
best Yahoo idiot comments:
“NO ONE actually DIED – no one will file. This company is a good company – will go up soon. I bought some today before the close.
WAY OVERSOLD – look at the shorts. PLUS the company has not given press release, so it will go up when they do. They are having a meeting right now @ Holiday Inn.”
“I’ve just bought 13750 shares at $5.85. I can’t believe my luck ! This is at LEAST a $20 stock. Remember, Warren Buffet said “be greedy when others are being fearful.” (so i’m happy to be greedy!) Even if a few complaints go to court, worst case scenario I’m sure they are adequately insured So why worry?”
AND MY #1 FAVORITE
“thanks Obama for ruining this stock”
Cramer on technical analysis = TOTAL IDIOT.
LOL, CA I was just wondering what you would say about Cramer’s technical analysis, no kidding.
What are you saying CA? Cramer invented technical analysis! 😛
Anybody see STSI during afterhours? It’s worse than MTXX. LOL
Hate to take either one of those up the ass
MTXX is beyond homo-hammer. That’s a gay gang rape.
STSI
Funny shit:
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/06/02/these-stocks-can-easily-double-your-money.aspx
MTXX – [130 patients report loss of smell since 1999…]
A day out and all hell breaks loose….what a load of crap. That’s a teeny tiny number – probably no higher than background for folks with a history of a cold. The most common cause of anosmia (can’t smell) is a cold, and that hasn’t changed since way before I went to medical school in the early 80’s and so waaaaayyyy before Zicam. You don’t need to look at exclusive medical refences, just google “anosmia following upper respiratory infection” and you’ll find a lot of stuff going way back.
Not only that but it’s “homeopathic” – that means users practically have to believe there’s zinc in it, and if I know those typical users (I do) they are bullshit and stocking up like crazy.
I don’t know where it goes stock wise, a report I saw said those products were 40% of revenue so after 25 million in cash you’ve got about 20 million in book buying 8.3 mil / year in income (lozenges and other formulations they have). A risk no doubt, but perhaps a big payday after the dust clears…might be worth a nibble for the chance of a double? I don’t think it’s a zero – I don’t see lawsuits prevailing on this kind of thing at all, but legal fees can do the trick alone of course.
man, that STSI stuff is pure comedy. talk about a murderhole.
I’m doing a bit more reading and thinking on it, but my gut tells me I’m a MTXX buyer tomorrow on any hint of strength, and if I’m really lucky it will get slapped more before I buy.
No way would I buy MTXX stock
October 12.50 calls @ .50 – maybe – much better downside protection…
haven’t setup my TD account for options yet retox I’m a plain vanilla new guy – thanks for giving me an evening reading assignment!
Bill,
There are so many ways you could play your thesis with options and it can get very complicated…
One quick & easy trade would be to buy October $12.50 calls – you would pay .50 each and would have the right to buy MTXX for $12.50 anytime before the expiration of the option ($13 when you include the cost of the option). If your thesis is right and it doubles, you break even. The profit is in the value of the option. Assuming you don’t wait until October and MTXX makes it to say $9 in August, the value of the option might increase to $.75 – a 50% return on the cost of the option.
Along the way, you could write (sell) calls – assigning the right to another investor to buy MTXX (from you) at $12.50 for a nearer month (July 09 in this case). Since you are holding the October calls, you are protected if it takes off to the upside. This transaction would give you income (you are selling these calls for .15).
The complete transaction would cost you .50 – .15 = .35 cents each + comm.
So, for .35 you are playing the upside potential with the downside risk being ONLY the cost of the option (roughly .35). If the option expires worthless you would have a 100% loss on the original cost.
The goal is to watch the value of the option rise and take profit before expiration day (numerous reasons).
I’m not recommending this trade – just giving one way to play it that, IMO, deals with the extreme risk involved in an MTXX play.
Retox thanks a bunch for the primer – I’ve clearly got a bit of lesson work to get up to speed (not including obligatory painful experience). My interest as an “insider” is hard to put down – I hate this kind of BS – there’s soooooo much worse stuff going on out there. The FDA moto should be “if it’s going on in medicine it’s news to us” goes out and wastes a company, freaks out the population, etc.
Since there’s another guy named bill out here I changed my handle – I’ve been into DC powered bicycles and boats since the start of the decade, and commercial LED lighting for a few years – kinda fits
920 broke are we shorting bnow? tell me b4 the open!
MTXX – Found a reference to a settled class suit against MTXX in 2005, 12 mil in insurance company money. These insurance sissies have screwed the game once again, no way to know what their coverage ended up to be after that. I still think it’s headed up big but I gotta think about this one more.
Just wondering how was there was 17.5 mill shares traded yesterday in MTXX when the stock has only 9.43 mill outstanding shares.
How do these things work?
Thanks
Just wondering how was there was 17.5 mill shares traded yesterday in MTXX when the stock has only 9.43 mill outstanding shares.
How do these things work?
Thanks.