Lucius the Eternal — the Champion of Slaanesh, Scion of Chemos, the Ragin’ Cajun
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I am in 100% cash. It is my standard procedure during times of extreme uncertainty. It allows me to assess the current situation and make new allocations accordingly. At this point, I will ease off of swing holdings and move towards day trading until I find a suitable setup in the general market, long or short. The market may have formed the left shoulder and head of a “head and shoulders” pattern. I can’t say for certain, but it is a possibility.
I am up almost +180% YTD, and up a good +27.5% MTD, so this is a necessary precaution. I had a larger number of losers this month so far, but they were small compared to the 20-50% gains I achieved from various names nearly every single day. I’ve seen some large gains disappear, but I’ve also seen large gains become much larger. I take those risks based on my judgment and also due to the fact that I can afford to take losses. I was up +1.8% today.
I analyzed and posted charts of the various sub-industries that make up the nine main sectors in the market. I will be looking at these charts everyday for the next several days. I listed the tickers (for Stockcharts.com) and their representations below:
$XAL -AMEX Airline Index
$BKX – Philly Bank Index
$BTK – AMEX Biotech Index
$DJUSCH – Dow Jones Chemicals Index
$CRX – MS Commodity Equity Index
$XCI – AMEX Computer Tech Index
$DDX – AMEX Disk Drive Index
$XAU – Philly Gold & Silver Index
$HWI – AMEX Computer Hardware Index
$HCX – S&P Healthcare Index
$RXP – MS Health Care Products Index
$RXH – MS Heath Care Provider Index
$INSR – NASDAQ Insurance Index
$IIX – Interactive Week Internet Index
$XNG – AMEX Natural Gas Index
$NWX – AMEX Networking Index
$XOI – AMEX Oil Index
$OSX – PHilly Oil Services Index
$DJUSPP – Dow Jones Paper Index
$DRG – AMEX Pharmaceutical Index
$DRJ – Dow Jones REIT Index
$RLX – S&P Retail Index
$XBD – AMEX Broker/Dealer Index
$SOX – Philly Semiconductor Index
$XTC – AMEX N. American Telecom Index
$TRANQ – NASDAQ Transportation Index
$UTY – Philly Utility Index
Your posts and charts have helped me and I knew you were up but 180% is just obscene. Congratulations!
Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing it with us.
I’m half dead at the time because I just finished up a post of my own… Glad you’re an insomniac like I am 😉
I’ll check those charts out in 4 hours… Thanks for posting them my man, makes my life hella easier.
Catch ya in a few.
nice chart overview … way to manage risk while swinging for the fences
I second the obscene comment… Nice work.
Last year’s return was +256%.
damn!! those are good numbers! great insight CA, what do you think about mgr.v here (I know you don’t play these but it’s daily has formed a good base, there some recent increase in buying and the weekly chart looks deece, I would say next resistance sits at .40, what do you think?)
TSTR sets launch date July 1 2009 – announced AH – closed at .95 – current 1.11
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TerreStar-Announces-Launch-prnews-15541529.html?.v=1
Only had a chance to get a little yesterday
seems like the majority of the charts are neutral/bearish….cool
Only 3 more months or less of May’s performance and you’ll exceed last year’s gains… sweet!
Thanks. I am very greatful for your lessons.
thank you CA great stuff
ISTA is my ATM
AGEN rippin
BDK short still working – lots of room to go
ISTA is beautiful… any more room in it?
Sold ISTA @ 4.00. I dont see any new levels its gona get to. And there is a lot of sellers above 4.
thanks toronto!
franky,
$4 was my target when I bot at 2.85. I was willing to wait through the 26th (FDA news). This is a solid company that has brought real products to market.
This BTFO from the last ascending triangle is about what I expected (measured move). CA can straighten my shit out on that if necessary.
I would watch for a pullback or, at least, some consolidation before the next move up – I do believe we will get one and I am not getting out – I just don’t see anything that says you need to chase it today (as much as I would love for you to buy up my book).
ISTA – It all changes, however, if we get some real volume into the news – watch the F out…
It’s an FDA play so it WILL get some hype.
No worries Franky. Lets make some more money elsewhere 😉
One by one I have been stopped out and am all cash. CA, shoulda followed you to all cash into the close my man. Good thing is I can play big time once it is time.
no – actually i’m in it since 3.33. i just have a terrible time getting out with a profit on these things. i’ve got a trailing of 2% so i’m sure i’ll get kicked out soon. i really appreciate your help!
SVNT 2nd b/o hod
are your picks in the PPT ? If not you need your own subscription base
Check out KV.A, holding steady here! Pharmas strong!
Bought ALVR $4.09
NHWK BTFO
daytrade or swingtrade?
I’m glad I got out of ONCF at 1.63
Buying July puts on ACAS – drops like a rock after today.
What REALLY happened in the ShamWoW hotel room:
http://photos.tmz.com/galleries/sham_wow_aftermath#39928
Warning: VERY bloody.
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ALVR is a daytrade. Stop at $4.05.
RGLD breaking downtrendline. Go check it out, GO GO
Watching MIPI, STAA, VVTV
‘do you like my nuts?’
Buying NHWK @ 4.55
WPRT-suggested long.
SPY wants to go green
Glud – nice on RGLD.
LCC momentum
VVTV GONE
Copper breakin downtrendline
gold and silver recoering
Watch mine companies for a fat swing
AGEN basing
CA – KV.A look interesting again?
HBAN making a move again
SPY go green
Please Mr. Obama, don’t step on my rally (er, bounce)…
Prolly pretty risky, but if MTXX can hold a solid bottom for a day or two I might get in for 2-3%
Mike..that MTXX trade is only for retarded dead people…worst suggestion heard for 2009…well done
KV/A – not particularly.
This ‘rally’ looks like a reactionary bounce only.
GSS breaking downtrendline. Aproximately Same setup as RGLD
‘retarded dead people’ — lol
how do you feel about sqnm here? thinking of buying more and riding it until i retire.
Is it just me, or does that Lucius guy look a lot like Ragin’ Cajun?
Ah, but she was a nice bounce at that. Out SPY 92
AMLN, breaking out of 5 month wedge…
Gents, any scoop on PPHM ? And C.A what does the weekly chart say to you?
** EDGR ** about to run-imo.
PPHM is all over the place. unpredictable.
CA,what do think abt SRS and FAZ..im holding right now….is it right time to take profits..or wait for some more time?
ALVR finally going.
iETFs – depends on holding period.
JAZZ going loony again
Bought AMLN $ 11.95 for long term.
the prez, as much as i think he is a socialist gay fuck..is making a good speech, which means nothing ultimatley…TBT right here before next auction-chinese hate us now.
stuck in WAVE… hold on or get out?
Sold half ALVR $4.35
CA – didn’t you have a stop at 4.05 on ALVR?
nice trade on ALVR…good going…
Sold other half ALVR $4.31
gotta run some errands. back in 100% cash.
‘ALVR is a daytrade. Stop at $4.05’
Maybe this was a mental stop?
yea, but this fucker was moving so slow, i just took it off. no point in having one.
TWI setting up …
ERII on the move …
MITI-reversing up..volume is light..watch if volume comes.
sold FAZ
holding SRS…..nice bounce XLF on 50MA
Guy..spaghetti Adami bearish..poof fucking rally..CNBC is chicken poop…only stupid fat housewives trading 30 share lots must watch….WPRT..EDGR..SYNM..my offerings to the field.
MTXX moving
nice going on ALVR!
MTXX – took a .20 ride – daytraders dream today
MTXX – b careful!
back
ANPI looks like its ready to breakout from its consolidating range
CA will be a billionaire in the next 5 years if he keeps this up.
MTXX actually doesn’t look bad for a day trade.
CA,
yeah, I just didn’t want people asking on Friday if we’re still in it… LOL
MTXX hitting CNBC again – will get vol
CA – Thoughts on NHWK?
stopped out 6.75 +.08 missed the top – very sloppy
MTXX – waiting for CNBC move
Going to say this: The company has announced it will comply with the FDA’s requirements, but will seek a meeting with the FDA to vigorously defend its scientific data, developed during more than 10 years of experience with the products, demonstrating their safety.
NHWK on the daily looks like it will need consolidation.
Don’t forget: TICKER + TIMEFRAME.
Kush – takin’ it one day at a time…
MTXX moving like a blindfolded retarded drunk goat – no thanks
MTXX ROFL!!
MTXX – “we’ve been winning” – NO, they’ve been settling out of court – fucking liar (ah, ALLEGEDLY)
Damn, out all day…lost my nerve on MTXX after I read they settled back in ’05 Bunch of punters…I would have fought to the death. CA, a primer on shorting might be timely if you’ve nothing else to do. I’m in almost all cash and missed todays ride – probably for the best.
CTIC showing some life.
ok I’ll try to make an article on shorting soon
SIRI??
I believe that there will be a lot of churning for next few days.
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bigwup – SIRI now back on the watchlist
thanks CA, ask me anything you ever wanted to know about OB/Gyn, anytime.
z.
NGD breaking out
Any thoughts on STEI? In the dying biz…I mean people still die in a recession right – baby boomers/growth industry etc? Popped up on my screener – looks good to me.
ALVR is moving again
ES short 906.75
STEI flag looks okay for now.
Bill – how many babies have to delivered in your career?
Bought SIRI 0.39 flat (5%)
RC and I got in on this one for overnight.
covered ES 906
“I stole the cookies from the cookie jar.”
Awesome day – thanks all.
Remember ACAS dies tonight!
retox, you have been killing it, good trading.
Thanks RC!!!
Good old fashioned chart patterns – and I’m not anywhere near as good as CA.
Sincere thank you to CA, RC, Fly, et. al.
Damn, so hard to work the market and the business….no idea how many babies – did 4 year inner city residency in Chicago in the late 80’s, couple of years of 36 hour shifts, pretty insane in retrospect. I will say this, trading is tough, very challenging and I respect you guys tremendously. At least I think I have the right state of mind for it.
95% Cash/5% Long (SIRI)
+0.7% today.
SIRI up 6% AH already
Bill(aka Doc Sparks),
I asked you about your specialty the other day because I’m applying to med school this summer. I love trading but I probably won’t have time for it in med school or anytime after wouldn’t you say?
GOOD.
Bill – I’m going to have to do that shorting article on the weekend. It won’t be too late.
It won’t be too late because the target is below SPX 600.
Jam – during med school it depends…but maybe, same goes for certain residency. Surgery, OB, Medicine, Peds, stuff like that no way. Psych, Radiology, Pathology sure. Unless you’re getting the military to pay for school you’ll need someway to pay off the debt and it’s not likely to be easy doing that as a general doc I’m afraid.
CA – thanks, I believe you’re right about the timing. I’m seeing a lot of familiar aspects in trading; there are a world of things to learn and just because someone is good at one part (say going long) means diddly in other aspects. I was so bad at going short I simply stopped, figuring I’ll just have to get there later – luckily it worked out very well. Long in this type of market (well, from March through this week) clearly has been shooting ducks in a wading pool – if you didn’t josh all over yourself – or didn’t know how to.
AGEN – interesting chart? / nice product lineup, haven’t decided yet, looking to pick up some familiar solids “cheap”; ANPI, some JAZZ again, maybe MITI, SQNM, INCY. I’ve got to rebuild my biotech portfolio again.
Went through a lot of charts and it occurs to me that being up for the past 3 days has been much more than luck.
So many cheap-o stocks are sucking it hard lately…
Found 3 that I’m adding to my watch list. Talk about sqeezing the lemon dry though!
CHP – 15% short float
GILT – This might have been a Gio play?
STEI – and I just realized Dr Bill z called that earlier no?
Retox, hardly a call on my part, but I’m thrilled you picked it out for consideration – I’m reasonably sure I’m not just lucky, but I’ll give it another few years to be sure.
CHP – very cool, C&D – I just looked it up and realized that had been on one my recent lists. I use some of their stuff in my LED projects, very nice. I’ll refocus on that one, thanks.
I’m adding SUPG to my “really want it to work out” list tomorrow. Up until last week or so I only posted some of the stuff I bought (as I bought it), and probably should have offered up a few more as I really nailed some I picked up in May and early June – but I didn’t have the courage. One that was extremely good to me (I caught the whole move), seems to be coming back for another spin, ISLN.
I am Lucius the Eternal.