iBankCoin
Joined Jan 1, 1970
509 Blog Posts

Face and Embrace the Reality

“What we’ve got here is… failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. So you get what we had here last week, which is the way he wants it… well, he gets it. I don’t like it any more than you men.”

                                          —-Captain, Road Prison 36, from “Cool Hand Luke”

Sometimes it’s just hard to get through to some people.

Have the perma bulls figured it out yet? I mean, what is going on in their minds? Do they actually think we will recover anytime soon? 

One of the things that is crucial, whether you are a trader or an investor, is to face and accept reality. Don’t be in denial. Don’t run away. Don’t make excuses. Deal with it.

My focus stock portfolio took a 2% hit today. These are stocks in the strongest sectors that are beginning to break. I’m going to have to make some decisions on what to sell tomorrow.

If you are down a little for the year, don’t hold out thinking you can breakeven anytime soon. It’s not in the cards. Besides, the market doesn’t give a rats ass if you breakeven —-ever.

People, realize that this market may be going down for the remainder of the year now. It will be like Chinese water torture, only drier. Put some hedges on for Pete’s sake. Go to cash, short weak stocks, buy puts, use inverse ETFs. Do something!

I keep hearing about upgrade this, buy that, bank buyouts, etc. First of all, nobody has any money. Where will they get it? From the other banker down the street? Deals will have to be in stock, if any, backstopped by the Fed at $10. There will be no delusions of granduer. There will be no more armies of IB’s. There will be no more big deals this year. Earnings at the IB’s will be going down. Take note and forward this memo on to your broker.

I’ve got a close friend in the IB business. He can’t find any deals. There are none out there. That business  has dried up, according to him. Another guy at a VC firm told me that there’s nothing going on at his shop. The deals are getting put on hold, delayed indefinitely, or nixed altogether. People are getting scared, capital is drying up and the machine is grinding to a halt. 

Just today, I almost bitch-slapped someone in my office for suggesting that we ought to look at buying some “beaten down names” here. WTF???

To make matters worse, some asshat analyst on a conference call starts talking tech. Tech that, tech this. If he had ever followed up his comments spouting “buy with both hands”, I mean it….if it was physically possible, I would’ve reached through the conference call phone line and choked him silly.

What is wrong with people? Do they like losing money as the market churns in a shithole?

In short, I am ordering you not to go long any “value” stocks. It’s for your own good. Listen to me now and believe me later.

 Face and embrace the reality.

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