If I’m quiet, it’s because there’s been zero development on this since last week. Between my trading room and after hours, I’ve dedicated the bulk of my days to talking and trading through this idea since I started it. At this point, I am as ready as the rest of you for anything to happen here.
From IPO high to low, the daily commentary was in full sync with the stock til mid week last week. I said I thought the stock would consolidate closer to $24, and instead it consolidated the week at $22.50.
The stock is coiling for a move, obviously. Until there’s movement to analyze, I’m comfortable with how I’m positioned for a break of this range.
Tomorrow is the day it shakes loose. There’s nowhere else for it to go.
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Just listened to AH, and I agree with your synopsis 100%. I mentioned this last week, the issue is when it rips higher. I believe the bulls who are buying now are incredibly weak and are stopped out easily to $22. And the bears haven’t experienced much pressure around the $23 level. I think, as you said, we’ve reached an equilibrium at this level and we’re going to need a news bump to carry it to the upside. That said, downside risk seems limited. I’m pushing my expirations out around this $22 level to give me the highest probability of capturing the move. Those are my two cents, not that anyone fucking cares.
Good comments. Smart to play time and probability.
Always appreciate the time you put in as trading coach and therapist.
OA,
I signed up for your service last week. Regret that I’m usually to busy with my day job to attend After Hours or participate in your trading room. But I enjoy watching your after hours videos on playback. Regardless of how this SNAP trade shakes out I can see you’ve generally got your eyes on the right stuff and will do a great job of taking advantage of the kind of market we’re looking at here in 2017 and onward. Really happy I joined up here.
For what it’s worth I think you’re right about SNAP. Clearly consolidating for a big move of some kind. The old adage comes to mind: The longer the consolidation, the bigger the move. And it doesn’t seem to want to go down. What’s amazing about you – the chart wasn’t this easy to read when you first called it.
Don’t want to sound over-optimistic (the Stock Gods don’t like that). But I like the way you think.
Despite all the angst, SNAP has stayed firmly above 22. Healthy consolidation. One aggressive flush would probably shake a lot of late buyers and I am prepared/hopeful (?) to add a last tranche if that were to occur.
Don’t take this the wrong way…
Remember at the end of the big short when Christian Bale’s character writes the final number on the board and there’s that overwhelming feeling of ‘what’s the point?’ Dragging people kicking and screeming to what they want and when they get it they still question everything you do. If this works out I think I’m gonna feel the same way.
I’m incredibly thankful for the detail you’ve mapped out here. I will look back on it often, regardless of outcome. But I certainly couldn’t put up with all this nonsense. You’re a lot bigger person than me.
Thanks for the insight OA — your handholding on this trade has done wonders for the mental endurance on this trade. I made a concerted effort not to ask for babysitting advice.. But with the size of my position in $SNAP and psychological warfare this consolidation has played on my account balance, I could definitely see why people are losing their shit.
Not that I’m looking for one, but another shake downwards might be enough to get every late buyer out right before this thing rips.
I think last two underwriters that had not issue their rating was BTIG and Evercore. Lets hope Evercore is more aggresive.
100+ comment blog posts to now sub 10.
I added more April’s.
This is what happens when one gets married to the idea…
It’s called letting your winners ride
Married to the idea?
I am still profitable in this trade!
Fucking hell, I walked through this idea daily in order to reduce the flow of questions from pikers like yourself.
If you found a way to fuck this up, congrats. Otherwise, I am still 3-for-4 in this stock to date, and my biggest position is still up over 100%.
Married to the idea? Go fuck yourself. I’m making money and still holding people’s hands through this at the same time. LOVE how that always turns out to be a bad thing in the end, regardless of how much money is made.
someone else’s comment about the ending from The Big Short when Christian Bale writes in the final number is very fitting comparison.
trolls always dependable to get these things moving
The trade’s not even over yet.
It takes commitment to win or lose, commitment to the winning scenario as well as commitment to the losing scenario that goes along with it.
The calls I added last Wednesday continue to decay but will not expire this week.
That $22 support is really tough.
Ain’t nuthin but a leg sweep!
easy to manage place to start CF right here
Crazy to see people posting their stops on StockTwits (I.e. “If this breaks 21.50 I’m out). Since following this site I am starting to relish these comments.
OA, thoughts on TWLO here at 28 for a swing trade? Thanks!
OA ,
Bought some nvda puts last week based on one of your after hours discussion. Great call!
Loved that idea…nice work
https://youtu.be/L3wKzyIN1yk
SNAP has me giddy today. That gap down followed by strong buying this AM is exactly what I wanted to see. Bought some more.
I think that move was the extent of the headfake.
With the tepid comments from the underwriters on SNAP, has anyone considered that they may actually want to own this stock?
Working from memory, but I think $176.50 is the top of the BIDU wedge.
I have the wedge top of today at $182.
I’m talking about the one that runs back to 2014. Big, 18mo long wedge. You could draw it from mid-2015, too. But I don’t think it changes much.
That’s the one I have, from November 2014, guess we have a slightly different line.
Maybe. I thought it touched the top border a couple of weeks ago, so projecting out from that.
lower timeframe has a broadening formation, currently at the top of it, now falling.
$VRTU around $25 looks like aversion to a LT trend line, could be a nice entry.
Well look at you $SWN, putting on your big-boy pants. Good for you.
I’ll buy you an ice cream cone if you get to $8.60…
The only misjudgement I think is how intense the aversion phase would get. It’s feeling pretty ugly right now.
This caption looks kind of prison rapey.
To all Pikers. I’ve followed this gent for years. My biggest losses have been selling his calls to early–usually due to over positioning myself in a trade. Don’t under estimate him or degree of move possible with his picks. His $X pick a few summers back literally erased all my student debt in gains. Slow your roll, trolls.
Former Snapchat employee presses to unseal allegedly doctored usage statistics
http://www.businessinsider.com/fired-snapchat-employee-wants-to-unseal-lawsuit-about-snapchat-user-metrics-2017-4