iBankCoin
The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,832 Blog Posts

I BOUGHT THE BOTTOM IN RETAIL THIS YEAR, WHAT DID YOU DO?

One of my broad market themes this year was rotation into consumer plays, particularly retail.

Back in January, I started accumulating names like $SHLD, $JWN, $COH and picked up some $RETL about 2 weeks ago.

I’m wildly bullish on retail this year, but you have to implement another layer of intelligence when playing this group.

Most things retail suck. You have to consider trends, fads, too much negativity, too much optimism…all when picking a candidate.

As an example, I bought $SHLD. I won’t argue that this company might turn to dust in 5 years, but I would argue that this was top perceived “Lehman” of retail. I love when you can sense group think about a company or situation such as this.

I added my last portion of $RETL here, and will be buying dips in individual names til the fall.

Got any favorites? Leave me a comment about them.

OA

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40 comments

  1. Raul3

    i like COH big time

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  2. Option Addict

    I delete comments like that all day.

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  3. Option Addict

    Already have. Give you 10k to say any of those things to my face.

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  4. cascadia

    Haz you ‘pooter mouse or trakpad?
    Clik on blogg archivz and read yo selv foo.

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  5. Montrose

    PIR?

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  6. tonka

    someone forgot to put his big boy pants on this morning

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  7. vandamme

    EL RL BBBY

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  8. Option Addict

    lol, I’m deleting your for being a fag.

    I have people trading these with me in real time. I don’t need to prove anything to you.

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  9. eddiedaroza

    ELF

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  10. eddiedaroza

    Thoughts on GOOS? No one seems to care about that IPO

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  11. trashman

    I think we found last weeks top buyer

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  12. Jesse j

    I like DKS

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  13. jason

    HBI/UAA/TSCO

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  14. Beechoo

    I like EEM here

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  15. baba

    $LB – They do sell overpriced stuff, but did not find a good enough competitor

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  16. jason

    I also like DG. Accumulating sharing for longer term.

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  17. lol

    $BOOT

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  18. Darren

    Don’t really see much in the specialty retail space that’s actionable right here right now from a quick scan.

    I would watch maybe PIR if it keeps rounding out a base in the high 6’s low 7’s.

    BKS would also be interesting if it decides to roll over here. Help develop that wedge a bit more on the 1y daily.

    Both have moderately high short interest. Neither really an option play.

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  19. matt_bear

    $ANF seems really cheap but it finds a way to get cheaper.

    I’m torn on $TGT. The yield is really getting me for my long term account. Tons of hate in this name though, which you usually like for entries. I dunno.

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  20. cascadia

    If you like $ANF, you’ll love $BKE!

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  21. formergeek

    Well you always have those other Sears name $SHOS and $SRSC that haven’t gone yet but look ready

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  22. Mensch

    $JCP if it holds 6

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  23. Rosenrush

    First, I tip my hat, as I thought retail was too hard to touch and/or there wouldn’t be enough bounce to justify the risk…good call.

    Long-term, I still like $KORS – trading cheap, provided it doesn’t totally disappear. Fundamentally, brand still plays across the spectrum, good brand equity, ability to grow and earn. Needs more time to bottom, but feels like mid-30’s is the floor.

    I feel like $COH has the same type of argument, but feels more risky. Aside from those, I’d be inclined to consider the discount folks – there’s always demand and it will only increase if economy turns. Plays like $ROST and $DG over the long-term.

    Meanwhile, I’d bet that $M gets bought before it goes under. $SHLD on a path to 0 eventually. I would expect $JWN to outlast the others, but not sure I want to own it.

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  24. masteroneass

    Ebay Does that count?

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  25. masteroneass

    Do you mean department stores? Or like Asian imported Clothing? If so JCP / Sears are toast. KSS / WMT / TJX / ROST and the specialty places have them ripped. Macys / Nordstrom I would assume would be the only survivors in the public space. Stores are now becoming specialized – like Nike. It’s what Apple did. The Apple Store is crowded as hell, however their products are also sold elsewhere. The department store concept is dead.

    http://fortune.com/2017/01/06/neiman-marcus-ipo/

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  26. Option Addict

    @whatsanoption

    literally the worst fucking analysis I’ve ever read. You’re out of your league. You’re far too average.

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  27. PartTimeLover

    Jinxing myself- I bought BBBY on the lows a week ago- and chose to stay and not reduce when it hit 40 – the 50 day slammed it.
    EPS coming… hopefully they dont use a 20 pct off coupon on me

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  28. The Maven

    $ELY earnings next week solid run here

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