Everywhere I turn, the news suggests the market is overbought. Ok, but what does that mean exactly?
I was on Drudge the other day and had to screen shot this…
I’m not cherry picking here either. Those comments are everywhere.
What is the crowd conditioned to think here? The crowd is showing a slight uptick in interest now, right? Are they fully invested? Not at all, but some have dipped the toe in.
When a market spends weeks upon weeks and months upon months churning like it did 2014-2016, this is what happens when you leave the churn. Overbought is only a reflection of what I told you to prepare for.
One of the things we’ll shift in this upcoming Boot Camp is the way we measure sentiment this year. Obviously, my methods in years past were geared towards finding the negative inflection points in the last few years, like the “sell everything” calls, the decade long negative extremes in sentiment surveys, and more.
This year, we’ll be watching for extremes in optimism.
Let me say this…many of you haven’t experienced real enthusiasm. Therefore, you really have no idea what it is going to look like.
I can’t wait.
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Would love to hear your re-evaluation of the sentiment trade. People seem pretty bullish these days, but the markets keep going up.
Pain trade. You perked interest, and it’s moving like this to prevent folks from jumping on.
The Boot Camp session will be worth the price paid for admission, IMO.
Everyone I know is bearish based on their anti-Trump bias. Most bulls seem to be reluctant bulls?
Hey OA – does 2013 reflect a time of real enthusiasm? Or not really.
On a relative scale? Not even close. You’re still wading in the small pool back then dude.
Loaded BIDU yesterday. Love OIH calls here
USO calls look ripe for a pop
Not for you to give away parts of your Bootcamp, but do you think the rotations this year will be as frequent as in the past few years or more money channeling into specific sector ala Technology did in 1999?
ALL THINGS I HAVE PREDICTED HAVE MANIFEST THEMSELVES.
If there were a “deem real news” button, I would have clicked it on this comment.
let’s get the gold and bond plummet soon!!!
BOT $DDD @15
Stalking for an entry too.
The more the merrier!
Added BIDU Jun calls and GLD Jun puts. Looking forward to Bootcamp.
Smells like pain trade to me. If everyone thinks we’re overbought then we’re going up. Everyone waiting for the dip that never comes to finally spend all that cash sitting in their 401K.
By far one of if not the best sentiment analysts of modern era period. Your bootcamps are the real deal. Thanks OA, and thank you for your consummate professionalism in politically turbulent times.
Your thoughts on the vix/volatility itself becoming “the” crowded short play at some point, the tail that wags the dog? Also Mnuchin/Trump pumping the market publicly registers slightly for me on the ebullience side, though I think the Pres. campaign overhang was a significant % of this recent run up, leaving significant upside to come.
I think it is all part of what will be another epic rug pull. I think the President will cheerlead this market higher in order to get more people into it over time.
At the end of the day, those moments are a great way to transfer wealth.
Agreed, high probability there will be a significant playable market timing event, everything about this grueling run has been historic/epic. Maybe when we start seeing closer to trillion$ market caps or meaningful advances/disruptions in political organization changing growth equations.
From where do you hail?
NYC, pretty good vantage point for sentiment I think. Culinary/retail innovation and overall risk taking very strong but sane. Constant bombardment by VC-funded lifestyle company adverts another great dynamic indicator. Watching ClassPass’s rise and fall has been fascinating. Yourself?
Epic the key operative word. He will be the most effective conduit for institutionalizing bagholding at some point. For now, with banks and growth multiples very reasonable/cheap I think we still have a bunch of room as well.
Too many bears still fighting this tape. My models show S&P will hit 3000 around 2020 before we fall into a bear market. Most people are expecting a pullback soon which I don’t believe will happen. Interest rates will stay low and tax cuts will boost earnings 30%+ across the board.
President wants billions and billions for military, billions and billions for infrastructure, billions and billions for Wall… then massive tax cuts… and interest rates stay low??
How are you accounting for healthcare costs?
That is a more and more significant portion of people’s incomes. SS and healthcare is HALF the national budget.
It’s kind of a big deal.
Trump says he won’t touch SS and medicare/caid, but also says repeal/replacement of Obamacare coming.
He’s in full Oprah mode, what will the GOP do about his budget?
So much uncertainty to buy into!
Jeff what month do you think that we see the rug pull aka correction 2nd week in March? May?
August?
The real one? Years away.
Interesting.
Bought CYBR
FML
I bought SHAK today.
Not the real one just the 5-12 percent pullback.
Thanks
Mid-year
The news on NPR was saying yesterday” the last time there was a streak of DJIA up days this long was 1987,1987, Black Monday, yeah”. Really, that is how they phrased it. No more commentary than that.
i remember enthusiasm back in like 2005.
I remember in ’99, ’00. Every day was a DOW -300 day and a corresponding +100 day for the NASDAQ. That was insane. After a month like that, I couldn’t believe it was still happening, just disbelief at what I was watching.
Jeff,
Did you end up staying away from $ACIA since it fell below the $57-$60 range after earnings?
I didn’t buy any.
Massive squeeze going on in WTW
Is that one of OA Jr’s stocks?
It is
I didn’t get email to join AHWOA. Anyone else with this problem? No emails at all from anyone else too. I guess it has to do with Amazon server outage.
After Hours doesn’t send emails. GoToWebinar does.
Meetings can only be scheduled out 50 days. After 50 days, the recurring meeting expires. When it does, I create another series of meetings and post the link and password on the AHWOA site.
Emails will cease when meetings expire. When in doubt, you can always attend a meeting by logging into the AHWOA site and clicking on the meeting link and password.
Thanks! I logged to your site and saw the button on top to subscribe again. Got it! I joined half way but will review your recorded session. Today’s Amazon outage had me all screwed up.
Got a little DDD, stalking DECK as well. QCOMs close today has me thinking it wont be seeing that 55 level any time soon…. and TWTR remains stuck in the mud.
For what its worth, it seems like bullishness among the financial advisor community has hit a near term high. They’re about as financially illiterate as their clients are and they see nowhere for stocks to go but up.
LOL, sounds like another detail being called out? Let’s gooooooo!
TWTR going for ANOTHER sweep the leg. what a POS stock
If only there were good solid everyday trader data to really gauge stuff off of. The first wave of average joe trader got killed off in 2000/2001 when they would not stop trying to long everything hoping for a repeat of the huge exuberant Naz dot boom that never came back until recently. The second wave of average Joe trader got slowly killed off from 2009 to 2013 when they would not stop shorting everything after the huge 2008/2009 drop that still has not repeated itself. The extremely brief May 2010 flash crash and the summer 2011 downdraft gave newly minted short traders one final push of hope and then within a few years they also left the scene.
Don’t know what to think of this prediction but according to this guy – next big downdraft will happen in the middle of 2018.
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/crude_oil_foretold_the_trump_rally_10_years_ago/
Bought April PANW call.