Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet.  I got a barfing three year old on my hands.   They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.

Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below.  The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going.   I wanted to sell the calls only to find  — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none.   So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21.   I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.  

[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land.   Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not.   I just think that’s too easy.   I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.

Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.

I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other.  Stay alert.

On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector.  That may be one to own when we start moving again.   

That’s all for now, save the list.   Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.

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{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}

Name	9-Jun	10-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 31.30	$    30.48	-2.62%		Still on the trendline.
EGO	9.21	9.13	-0.87%		Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90
GDX	41.09	40.80	-0.71%		Hanging on 61.8% long term fib.  Added 1k today @$40.88
GLD	93.83	93.86	0.03%		POG down about $2.  Waiting.
IAG	10.17	10.21	0.39%		Holding pattern.
MON	85.07	85.85	0.92%		Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon.
NRP	24.11	24.01	-0.41%		Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS	21.71	22.15	2.03%		Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning.
RGLD	44.37	43.90	-1.06%		Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here.
SLV	15.03	15.01	-0.13%		PO Silver down a mere 8 cent.
SLW	10.29	10.18	-1.07%		Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90?
SSRI	22.59	22.75	0.71%		Making a move for the top of the cup again.
TBT	57.22	58.77	2.71%		Missed $60 by fitty cent.  Waiting for auction to sell calls.
TC	10.58	11.32	6.99%		Just a freaking monster.  Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake?
TSO	15.51	15.35	-1.03%		Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye.
AVG			0.39%

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UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall.   It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace.  Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07.   No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.  

Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today.   On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on.   [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up.  Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?

I like [[TIE]]  and [[TC]] is just insane.  I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact.   In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today).   I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.

On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts.   Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold.   Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.

Queries welcome.

Here’s a great theme for today.   Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida.  Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):

Update:  Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]

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 Update:  Sorry, no calls to sell on TC!  Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21.   I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.

Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles.  Hanging on the 61.8% fib.

Update:  Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot.  Isn’t that just like a woman?

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Young Daniel-san has been nagging me lately about the other lustrous beauty, Platinum —

I interrupt this blog post to tell a funny story about an even younger Daniel — my son.  Tonight we were alone together, as the Good Woman took the other kids to see “Star Trek” (she for the second time) and I stayed home with “the baby.”  Problem is, he’s not so much a baby any more and quite prone to mischief.   Case in point, he had been locking himself in his room lately, so — clever us — we turned his doorknob around about six months back.  Skip to tonight, whilst I’m preparing him beddy-bye, he’s mucking about with the door again.   Too late — I heard the “click” — did I realize he’d turned the lock and pulled the door shut, effectively locking us in his room until Star Trek was out.  Bugger.

Anyway, ever since Danny bugged me about Platinum, I’ve been watching [[PTM]] — the most liquid ETF of the metal I could find.  Tonight I’ve taken the decision to grab some given a break from it’s current position.  Given a trial period, I may even consider it for the JCHP.   I believe the following limpid, elucidating, facile and explanatory CHART will show my reasoning (rather than have you guess as to what the hell goes through my head on taking decisions like these, along the lines of certain obstreperous , cranky “Uncle Fuckers” with whom we may be familiar):

Overbought?  Most assuredly.  That’s why I’ll wait to see if it clears this critical $15.40 mark before I dip my beak.   I think PTM should likely match the other precious metals, and continue to hold value, like it’s other “precious industrial” twin, Silver.   We shall see.

Meanwhile, ho hum, the Jacksonians were mostly green-hued again today, all save the two I’ve hedged with sold calls (TBT & TSO).  Odd, no?   It looks like TSO may take something of a hit here tomorrow, thanks to the foolishness of VLO and WNR,  it’s villainous brothers.   I’m not overly concerned, as I sold the June $17.50’s at close to $2.00 some  weeks back.   That said, I’d like to see TSO hold the $16.70, area, as that is the bottom range of it’s current ascending triangle.  

The $HUI continues to consolidate under $400, even as the Jacksonians move forward.  There should be some room for additional accumulation this week, I hope.

Name		2-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE		$     26.84	3.23%		Another 3%+ day, Ags still strong
EGO		10.13	4.54%		So much for accumulation.  Hope you got some.
GDX		44.55	2.63%		$HUI under $400, yet GDX still up.
GLD		96.36	0.66%		Gold (the commodity) only $14 away from $1k
IAG		11.20	1.63%		Friday’s gap gets further away.
MON		82.70	1.50%		Moving back in the right direction for MONGO
NRP		24.30	0.25%		Back at the top of the consolidation range
PAAS		23.86	2.01%		Chug chug chug chug
RGLD		47.76	3.51%		Just the best thing you can own
SLV		15.75	2.61%		POS over $16 tonight, should follow
SLW		10.87	3.62%		Overbought, but silver rocketing
SSRI		24.67	1.52%		Ditto
TBT		55.00	-0.94%		Pullback from yesterday’s gapup
TC		10.39	4.00%		Considering selling the calls on this huge move
TSO		17.50	-0.06%		Will have to fight the VLO news tomorrow
		AVG	2.05%

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(Thanks to ‘Shed for the family photo)

As expected,  the miners have begun to consolidate a bit of last week’s (and last month’s) run up.    Nothing major mind you,  but the $HUI tells the tale here.  Remember this weekly chart from the 22nd of May?

A little more than a week later, the $HUI is behaving as indicated.   Remember that red line — the “likely target for a short rest?”    Here’s today’s same chart: 

This wholly expected retrace may bring us as far back as the top of our “consolidation box” ($375-ish).  But if the dollar and the 10-year continue to exhibit problems, I shouldn’t expect this rest to last much longer than that.    I will be using this time to aggregate some names like [[GG]] and [[AUY]] that I’ve been looking to add.   Those of you who have been waiting for a Jacksonian entry may want to consider this week’s opportunity as well.    

One other thing, I’ve been thinking about water as an appreciating commodity recently, and many of the water-related stocks have begun setting up nicely.  I may take a shot at grabbing some of the desalinator [[CWCO]] tomorrow if the stars are properly aligned.   

Note the new “comments” section on the JCHP performance chart.    Innovative, no?  

Best to you all.

Name		1-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE		$       26.00	3.59%		Moving with the Ags
EGO		9.69	-2.32%		Accumulation opp. Here
GDX		43.41	-1.70%		$HUI pullback
GLD		95.73	-0.49%		Resting for the leap to one grand?
IAG		11.02	-2.22%		Friday’s gap @ $10.92
MON		81.48	-0.82%		Yet to fill gap @ $85.06, Barron’s mention ↑
NRP		24.24	2.45%		Low volume up day, KOL up big
PAAS		23.39	-0.13%		Still very much in uptrend channel
RGLD		46.14	-0.92%		Half volume day, pullback
SLV		15.35	-0.78%		Friday’s gap @ $15.06
SLW		10.49	-0.29%		Friday’s gap @ $9.99, will it get there?
SSRI		24.30	1.72%		“Indefatiguable”, Friday gap @ $23.26
TBT		55.52	5.47%		Gapped up, strong volume day
TC		9.99	4.06%		Gapped up today, didn’t fill.
TSO		17.51	3.36%		Hugging the top of the triangle, must break $17.80
		AVG	0.73%

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There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights,  over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT  .   Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.

That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party.    I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.  

First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar.   He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not.    Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?

Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again).   And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.  

Why?   Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates.   If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt.   But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper.   Remember back when we first advocated  TBT as a Jacksonian pick?  Here was the chart:

We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades.   However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play.   Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:

Bang!  All the way above the 200-day EMA.   Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback.  Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.  

Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates.   That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP. 

Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD.   I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future.   The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.

UPDATE:  I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today.   I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.

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		26-May	% Change
ANDE		$   24.95	6.90%
GDX		41.84	-0.50%
GLD		93.76	-0.73%
IAG		10.56	-2.76%
MON		85.25	-1.57%
NRP		22.75	2.43%
PAAS		21.64	1.03%
RGLD		45.38	2.53%
SLV		14.42	-0.55%
SLW		9.49	1.61%
SSRI		20.82	-4.19%
TBT		55.07	2.80%
TC		8.73	1.04%
TSO		16.73	3.08%
Avg %			0.85%

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Not to be disparaging, but I’ve felt I’ve spent the week with a squadron of flying goats.   There you are flitting from tree to tree looking for the best green shoots, ears up and horns out,  “baaaaahhhing” it up to beat the band.   

Chips stocks!  Cancer stocks!  Lenny Dykstra Car Wash franchise stocks!  Get ’em while they’re hot from the chute!

But why must you make your lives so difficult?  There’s no reason to search for rare buds in the top branches of the acacia tree when there’s plenty of bull grass right here on the ground.   Come down from there and take a look at the freshly scythed alfalfa I have gathered for you, my yellow-eyed friends. 

Remember our weekly $HUI chart from last week?

Well, look what’s happened this week…. Pop!

Can anything be more promising than that little green bud out of the consolidation zone?    And yes, we’re a little overbought here, and should be coming into some more resistance around 400 or so, but we should welcome that opportunity.  

After all my boy, it is a bull market — and maybe the only one you’ll see for years to come.  So relax some, take a load off, and get your nets ready.   It’s almost harvest time again.

This week’s Jackson Core Holdings Portfolio results were very pleasing, especially as measured against the indexes.   So have some nice goat cheese this weekend, and maybe try to pause a second whilst hoisting that relaxing beverage to remember those who have served, and especially those who have fallen in order that you could enjoy this great country.    Be well.

Name	5/8/2009	5/15/2009	∆	5/22/2009	∆
ANDE	$    21.50	$      21.31	-0.88%	$    23.34	9.53%
GDX	37.46	37.65	0.51%	42.05	11.69%
GLD	89.98	91.55	1.74%	94.45	3.17%
IAG	9.92	9.83	-0.91%	10.86	10.48%
MON	86.42	89.95	4.08%	86.61	-3.71%
NRP	23.39	21.29	-8.98%	22.21	4.32%
PAAS	19.35	18.66	-3.57%	21.42	14.79%
RGLD	39.90	39.97	0.18%	44.26	10.73%
SLV	13.79	13.77	-0.15%	14.50	5.30%
SLW	8.91	8.58	-3.70%	9.34	8.86%
SSRI	20.06	19.06	-4.99%	21.73	14.01%
TBT	52.24	49.13	-5.95%	53.57	9.04%
TC	7.98	7.65	-4.14%	8.64	12.94%
TSO	16.72	16.60	-0.72%	16.23	-2.23%
		AVG	-1.96%		7.78%
Name	5/8/2009	5/15/2009	∆	5/22/2009	∆
SPY	$    92.98	$      88.71	-4.59%	$    89.02	0.35%
QQQQ	34.23	33.37	-2.51%	33.54	0.51%
DIA	85.47	82.78	-3.15%	82.87	0.11%
NDX	1,394.16	1,355.11	-2.80%	1,363.17	0.59%
RUT	511.82	475.84	-7.03%	477.62	0.37%
		AVG	-4.02%		0.39%

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