Just a word on Jacksonian long termer  [[TBT]] , which has taken something of a lashing recently.   It’s currently sitting right below a substantial (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement line from the beginning of the September swoon season (i.e., 9/02/08) to the lows on December 18th of 2008.   That 38.2% line stands at $47.21, and I think a close below that will indicate a drop to at least $44.90 or so.

 

For myself, I will “do nothing” for now, save eat a samich (sic).  As TBT, like [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] is a “bedrock” pick of mine for the coming troubles,  I may hedge it from time to time (which I may do here) but I will not sell my core position.  In fact, I mad add if we do dip back below to the $45 area.  If we do not get back above the target fib @ $47.21, I will likely sell calls tomorrow on my position, awaiting further entry.

In other news, New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] could drop back down to the trend line again (at $3.34 or thereabouts) but I think I’ll take another 1/2 position at these levels ($3.39).

Follow me only upon full knowledge of all your limbs being blown off in a nasty dynamiting session by these  small miners.

Best regaurds (sic), Jake.

_______________________________________

UPDATE:  Bot 6k more NGD @ $3.38 (market).

 

_________

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Tonight is French Night on iBC, as ably demonstrated by Le Fly, who’s been buzzing around the streets and back alleys of Brooklyn on a moped, wearing a mime outfit and carrying hardened assault baguettes with which he has been smacking passing bearshitters.

As a consequence, our entertainment tonight will be of the French variety.  Someone sent me this following vid … some fan I guess (of the girl, not me).  I was intrigued, given the alleged huge popularity of this young woman over in Francais-land.  

Putting my French prejudices aside (as always), I look at this vid and I say — “what the hell is wrong with these people?”

I mean… haven’t they ever seen a Madonna video?  A far more hideous woman, from Michigan no-less, and yet, she makes for a far more entertaining spectacle, what with her sweaty dance kicks and conical breastusses-plates and all.  

Watching this piece, one is compelled to ask — what brilliant choreographer designed the 18-inch diameter dancing circle this young nymphette was forced to remain within?  And, was it John Travolta who taught her the “hand jive” she’s so desperately working here… maybe less to the music and more to the invisible flames engulfing her hands? 

Get this woman an L.A. talent agent, post-haste!    (Anton, I am suggesting you apply.)

And will someone… someone please insert a decent “Yo, Adrian!” at approximately 3:57 of this piece?   Thank you.

  [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceSxEjwXHcM 450 300] 

_____________

As for the market today, we saw some winship and we saw some consolidation.   As a consequence, I think [[TBT]] is ready to go north tomorrow after a nice pullback today.   [[BAA]] was a glorious win of many flying colors, and I don’t think it’s done yet.   I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and [[EXK]] .   If I had to have a favourite (sic) Jackson tomorrow, besides TBT, it would likely be Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] — pray for a pullback on the latter.   Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] should also be examined closely.

That’s all for tonight.   Wait, there’s one more before I forget… Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] has popped on my radar, and will likely get some follow through tomorrow.    Also, I added 2k more [[BIOS]] — if you get anything this year, break off a little bit for this consistently stair stepping winner.

Best to you and I will try to continue to update you tomorrow.

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	15-Jul	Change	16-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$     29.20		$      29.30	0.34%		$        8,847	0.02%		Could follow up w. the MOS & POT wins
EGO	9.05		9.20	1.66%		$        8,620	0.09%		Like to see it get above $9.50 here
GDX	38.29		38.33	0.10%		$      11,601	0.01%		50 day at 39.07,  might get resistance there.
GLD	92.24		91.98	-0.28%		$      10,578	-0.02%		Held up at the 50 day (92.08)
IAG	9.99		10.05	0.60%		$      12,392	0.04%		Closed over the fifty day
MON	76.46		75.74	-0.94%		$        4,442	-0.03%		Got the pullback we expected, to the 50day
NRP	22.27		22.89	2.78%		$        4,751	0.08%		All of a sudden looking strong.
PAAS	19.30		19.12	-0.93%		$      11,483	-0.06%		Closed over the fifty day, $20 the test now
RGLD	40.51		40.59	0.20%		$      11,216	0.01%		Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV	13.06		13.09	0.23%		$      10,634	0.01%		POS consolidating here
SLW	8.41		8.39	-0.24%		$        8,150	-0.01%		Consolidating
SSRI	18.62		18.76	0.75%		$      10,913	0.05%		Needs back over $19.
TBT	53.19		52.00	-2.24%		$      10,359	-0.14%		Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC	11.61		11.81	1.72%		$        5,540	0.06%		Getting ready to crank one out
TCK	18.46		20.03	8.50%		$      13,318	0.68%		JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA	21.28		20.35	-4.37%		$        4,100	-0.11%		Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)	$      0.00		$    26.42	0.01%		26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				0.46%		$ 173,365	0.68%
AVG (monthly)				2.78%		Actual
AVG (inception)				16.09%		Return	15.58%

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This is a far shortened version of the post I wrote last night that got eaten by WordPress, curse their bones. Apparently, not even the autosave was working last night.

In summary, yesterday was a bag full of fruity jelly beans and bottle rockets. The three I told you to watch — Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and [[TBT]] were up some 8+%, 7+% and 5+%. They are still all buys here.

The silvers shocked me, many of them heading back over all the moving averages they had fallen below. But then silver always makes violent moves — it’s the Al Capone of the precious metal world. The silver Jacksons did well, with Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — my favourite (sic) — doing the best at over 6% up, but in the personal holdings, non-Jackson junior [[EXK]] was the superstar, up over 14.2%.

I expect all the metals to have pullbacks today after yesterday, but I don’t think this was a headfake, either. I think the inflation numbers are starting to percolate. Remain cautious, but be sure to continue accumulating and filling out your well diversified list of juniors. These are lotto tickets (witness [[BAA]] as of late) and you just never know when they will come in. Another great example is Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , hat tip to whomever reminded me of them again yesterday.

Gun to my head picks today include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]], [[BAA]]  and more Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] . I will seek to start getting rid of my [[TZA]] today as well on any strength. Cash is starting to slow down the portfolio performance, as you can note from the relative performance numbers below. Have a great day.

Name/		%		%	Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	14-Jul	Change	15-Jul	Change	Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$      27.97		$         29.20	4.40%	$           8,816	0.23%		Winship
EGO	8.71		9.05	3.90%	$           8,480	0.20%		Ditto
GDX	36.76		38.29	4.16%	$         11,589	0.29%		$HUI bounce told the tale, to $43?
GLD	90.81		92.24	1.57%	$         10,608	0.10%		Above all the MA’s again, looks good
IAG	9.65		9.99	3.52%	$         12,318	0.26%		Winship
MON	74.70		76.46	2.36%	$           4,484	0.06%		A little overbought now, expect pullback
NRP	21.34		22.27	4.36%	$           4,622	0.12%		Decent volume move but now overbought
PAAS	18.24		19.30	5.81%	$         11,592	0.40%		Broke DT, back above consolidation zone
RGLD	39.54		40.51	2.45%	$         11,194	0.16%		Back over 200 day looking good
SLV	12.72		13.06	2.69%	$         10,609	0.17%		Nice one day move, POS = 13.33
SLW	7.88		8.41	6.73%	$           8,169	0.33%		Above downtrends now
SSRI	17.93		18.62	3.85%	$         10,832	0.25%		In consolidation zone, below all MA’s
TBT	50.63		53.19	5.06%	$         10,596	0.32%		Winship
TC	10.72		11.61	8.30%	$           5,446	0.27%		Extraordinary winship
TCK	17.15		18.46	7.64%	$         12,274	0.56%		Winship
TZA	23.99		21.28	-11.30%	$           4,287	-0.29%		Will ditch on break of $20, or sooner
Cash (000)	$       0.03		$       26.42	0.01%	26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				3.27%	$     172,337	3.45%
AVG (monthly)				2.21%	Actual
AVG (inception)				15.35%	Return	14.89%

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I think there’s some good news in the commodity sector.  I still don’t trust the silvers yet (under 200 day MA’s still)though I’m holding every last one.   I like Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here a lot.   Monsanto Company [[MON]] is still sick, but [[TBT]] may be a purchase tomorrow as well.

I’ve been running myself ragged here, so the joozy picks will have to wait for tomorrow, but I’ve some nice looking juniors– NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and [[BAA]] — that I think will be worth your while.   [[BIOS]] should also be bot with all due prejudice. 

Let’s see what Intel Corporation [[INTC]] does for us here, too tomorrow.   But the best news would be for the Obamarxist’s socialized medicine plan to get shot down.  The Obamanists  say they’ll do it even without any GOP votes at all — which is hubris beyond all understanding, and political risk,  if one is a thinking prudent Dem.   I just don’t see that happening on such a third rail issue as the destruction of our innovative and life-saving  modern health care system.   They haven’t all swallowed the kool-aid down in Jonestown yet.

So there’s hope, which may give a boost to this market that means more than fat tech earnings.   More talk of juniors and such tomorrow.  Jacksons commentary below.   Best to you all.

Name/			%	Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	13-Jul	14-Jul	Change	Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        27.37	$     27.97	2.19%	$        8,445.05	0.11%		Got an oversold rebound
EGO	8.47	8.71	2.83%	8,161.27	0.14%		Closed just above 20&50 day (8.69)
GDX	35.93	36.76	2.31%	11,125.91	0.15%		$HUI Bounce trade working nicely here
GLD	90.19	90.81	0.69%	10,443.93	0.04%		approaching 20 day @ $91.11
IAG	9.32	9.65	3.54%	11,898.89	0.25%		Closed over 50 day ($9.61)
MON	73.55	74.70	1.56%	4,381.23	0.04%		Held over $70, approaching 20 day ($75.61)
NRP	21.37	21.34	-0.14%	4,429.22	0.00%		Back over 20 day, 50 day @ 21.95
PAAS	17.99	18.24	1.39%	10,954.95	0.09%		Needs to get over $19 to break DT
RGLD	39.32	39.54	0.56%	10,925.67	0.04%		Still under 200 day @ 39.68
SLV	12.66	12.72	0.46%	10,331.44	0.03%		Still bouncing off 200 wk MA,  as noted
SLW	7.68	7.88	2.60%	7,654.13	0.12%		Still well under all MA’s
SSRI	17.73	17.93	1.13%	10,430.48	0.07%		In consolidation zone, below all MA’s
TBT	49.02	50.63	3.28%	10,085.66	0.20%		Breaking downtrend today, may get more
TC	10.20	10.72	5.10%	5,028.86	0.15%		Launching again, may be back in tomorrow
TCK	16.47	17.15	4.13%	11,402.93	0.28%		Above all the MA’s again, looks good
TZA	24.45	23.99	-1.88%	4,832.81	-0.05%		Fading, but holding hedge
Cash (000)	$         0.03	$    26.42	0.01%	26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)			1.75%	$ 166,953.22	1.66%
AVG (monthly)			-1.00%	Actual
AVG (inception)			11.22%	Return	11.30%

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Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] is the strongest of the litter, here, and most of the precious still have work to do.  The silvers in particular are giving me agita, but only in that they are making me wait.

I bot some more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] today as it tested its 38.2% fib, and [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] had similar (though not as severe) pullbacks today.   Seasonally, we’ve entered into a slow period in the PM’s, but I am just not willing to sell anything right now, given the precariousness of the bond and dollar situation.   Sure, we could have more strength in both, but I just keep looking at the amount they have to sell this week (hat tip to Scum Bucket), and… well, let’s just say hard money is looking a lot more appetizing, and I’m getting ready to reload on more [[TBT]] . 

Of my non-Jackson’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] was actually a gold miner that was up today, and I’ve already mentioned that I increased my position in Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Pretty soon I’m going to look like a gypsy Queen with gold and silver (and a touch of platinum, though I’ve yet to add to my starter position in [[PTM]] yet) dangling off my fingers, toes, ears and dreadlocks.

But that’s what our major theme is going to be here, folks, for the duration, so get used to it.  Soon, you’ll thank me for my persistent nagging.  In fact, it’s quite likely that someday, you’ll be adorning your children in “just 4 Kids” NY Giant paraphenelia in my honour (sic), and sending them off to college with tuition bills paid for in gold doubloons and pieces of eight.

I have every confidence.   All I need is the patience of a Bengal tiger in the deep brush on the annual Marlon Perkins’ Eat a Safari Tourist Day.  

Non PM picks I like, if you’re interested, include [[BIOS]] and Health Grades, Inc. [[HGRD]] here.   Best to you all.

Name/			%
Ticker	2-Jul	6-Jul	Change		Comments
ANDE	$                 30.89	$               29.67	-3.95%		Bounced off 20 day, sell on break $28.90
EGO	9.25	8.75	-5.41%		Closed a cent over the 50-day ($8.74)
GDX	38.31	36.94	-3.58%		Gapped down, doji’d, 200 day $35.94
GLD	91.25	90.76	-0.54%		POG $925 headed for $900?
IAG	10.34	9.93	-3.97%		Bounced off 50 day, patience, a keeper
MON	71.96	73.26	1.81%		Bounced as I suspected, but vol. sucks
NRP	20.77	20.70	-0.34%		Still oversold, but hanging in.
PAAS	18.22	17.83	-2.14%		Looking weak, still.
RGLD	41.52	39.04	-5.97%		Below 200 day EMA, looking weak
SLV	13.16	13.10	-0.46%		Oversold, but 200 week beckons (12.40)
SLW	8.40	7.75	-7.74%		Closed penny over the 38.2% retrace, I bot.
SSRI	18.79	18.20	-3.14%		Doji’d but could seek $17 one more time
TBT	50.73	50.94	0.41%		Looks ready to make a move
TC	10.36	10.07	-2.80%		Could target 50 day ($9.00)
TCK	16.09	16.88	4.91%		Chinese investment give a pop.
TZA	23.63	24.34	3.00%		Portfolio saver again, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)	$               13.44	$              13.44	0.01%		Same
AVG (daily)			-1.76%
AVG (monthly)			-1.14%
AVG (inception)			11.26%

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Something about today’s low volume isn’t really convincing me today. Perhaps I’ll be shown the fool, I dunno. I do know the dollar is still shaky here with [[UUP]] having a tough time reclaiming the ever important $24.00 mark, and DXY only about fifty cents north of $80. Until the currency firms, I’m not going to be doing any “panic Jaeger bombs” in Danny’s basement.

I will remain in the defensive today, even as certain Jacksonian’s thrive. Our newest addition Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] benefits today from a weekend announced Chinese Gov’t investment, which shows that the Red Chinese are more Jacksonian than the Red Democrats running our Fed and Fisc right now. What irony, no? Also, [[TBT]] is up today, which gives me pause with regard to the Armegeddon scenarios as well. One would think the [[TLT]] would be up today given the dire portents afoot, no? But it’s not. Also, the hedge [[TZA]] is serving its purpose again today.

As a result of my skepticism, in true Costanza fashion, I am taking advantage of the worse wounded Jackson today — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — which has a intermediate term (10/25/08 lows to 6/4/09 highs) 38.2% fib retrace line at $7.74. Our lows today were $7.72, and we are now back at $7.74 as I type this. I bot another 2k at $7.82 all the same. I also got another 2k of Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] at $2.88 as I continue to believe this name will show M&A related relative strength as it has been.

As ever the caveats are in place, especially with SLW — for which I have an unnatural obsession. Purchase of either of these — especially today — will cause your Lance Armstrong “Live Strong” bullshit rubber bands to tighten in the sun, rendering your hands useless clubs for the duration.

_____________

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