There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights, over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT . Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.
That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party. I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.
First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar. He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not. Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?
Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again). And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.
Why? Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates. If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt. But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper. Remember back when we first advocated TBT as a Jacksonian pick? Here was the chart:
We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades. However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play. Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:
Bang! All the way above the 200-day EMA. Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback. Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.
Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates. That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP.
Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD. I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future. The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.
UPDATE: I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today. I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.
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| 26-May | % Change | ||
| ANDE | $ 24.95 | 6.90% | |
| GDX | 41.84 | -0.50% | |
| GLD | 93.76 | -0.73% | |
| IAG | 10.56 | -2.76% | |
| MON | 85.25 | -1.57% | |
| NRP | 22.75 | 2.43% | |
| PAAS | 21.64 | 1.03% | |
| RGLD | 45.38 | 2.53% | |
| SLV | 14.42 | -0.55% | |
| SLW | 9.49 | 1.61% | |
| SSRI | 20.82 | -4.19% | |
| TBT | 55.07 | 2.80% | |
| TC | 8.73 | 1.04% | |
| TSO | 16.73 | 3.08% | |
| Avg % | 0.85% |
Jackson hated those maggot banksters, that’s for sure.
“my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party.”
Funny stuff.
I saw this documentary a couple of weeks ago. American Swing. Unbelievable story. This guy use to advertise his Sex Club like a Billy Mays commercial. Said he got all the best of Lawn Guyland to go to the club. I guess Rudy G. cleaned all this up.
http://movies.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/movies/27swin.html
great post Jake.
check your e-mail
Exemplary work, Jake. Shall take heed. Without paying attention, I’ve collected a medium-sized bag of these gewgaws and whirligigs.
Re: Your header. A Gary Busey classic.
http://blogs.pitch.com/fatcity/some%20how%20gary%20busey%20even%20more%20scary%20with%20carny%20makeup.jpg
PS: “Conservative reader base.” Ha!
Scum — see, scum can learn!
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KC — Yeah, Times Square was a mess right up to the end of the eighties, and then it started cleaning up. Disneyland now.
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Anton — lol, not exactly a Jodie Foster classic, eh?
And I mean “conservative” with their money. I know some of y’all are part commie, but I’m tolerant.
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Nice post and TA Jake. I have one thing to take issue with…and that is your use of RSI(14). For lawd’s sake man, there is no edge, that I have been able to quantify, in using the 14 period setting of RSI to note tops. There MIGHT be an edge with that setting for bottom picking. More on that later.
You are much better off with an RSI(5)…but if that doesn’t work for you, RSI(10) should still provide a small edge when looking over intermediate time frames.
Not to detract from your killer posts…some things just get under my skin…
Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves…
Andrew Jackson
Wood, you are correct.
I use the RSI 14 setting only to annoy you.
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What makes you think RGLD leads the godlbugs?
Experience.
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Young men buy TMV … TBT is for seniors on fixed income.
TMV is fine, but I’d only work it in short cycles, like with the other 3x’s (FAZ, FAS, etc).
Might be a good short right now, actually.
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How are you feeling about MON??? I added to my position this morning (had an order in to buy some @ 82). I’m close to full now. You think I’ll regret it?
One more question, Jake. How do you weight the holdings in the JCHP? For example, how much more MON do you have than TC? Thanks
i went bearish on MON once it was in the nineties sometime last week.
How are you feeling about MON??? I added to my position this morning (had an order in to buy some @ 82). I’m close to full now. You think I’ll regret it?
I was actually going to make tonights post partially about MON.
MON is a LONG TERM HOLD. I know, that sounds crazy. But it’s the kind of thing where you want to hedge your position periodically (last week I mentioned it was banging the 61.8% line), but you do want to accumulate as you go along.
What I’ve done, is similar to my UPS holding — I act like I can’t sell it. So I hedge with sold calls, or sometimes with puts. And tomorrow, at some point I will likely be getting CALLS on it.
Why? Because I think it’s coming up against some significant — if perhaps only short term — resistance.
Note that today’s announcement was about their herbicide sales. I could give a farthing for their herbicide sales… it’s their SEED technology I’m after.
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One more question, Jake. How do you weight the holdings in the JCHP? For example, how much more MON do you have than TC? Thanks
For our purposes, I made every stock in the JCHP an equivalent basis. In fact, on the portfolio monitor I finally set up (only about a week ago) for my convenience, I put 10k in each stock.
In truth, I own a lot more MON than TC, but that’s only because I’ve owned MON forever (a testament to it’s hardiness).
TC could leave the JCHP at any time, however, MON is a far more likley “lifer.”
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My Congrats to Josh.
The “Golden Acorn” trophy is in the mail and on its way to you.
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Monsanto could have a dead cat bounce tomorrow. expecting test at 82.8. On some support, but support is real iffy. that 82.8 most likely is on June 1st, which doesnt make much sense to me. regardless MON has limited upside and therefore the risk of being long or going long makes little sense to me. gold/silver as i said last week will consolidate. expecting gold to come into the 91.5 range(around friday/monday)