_____________________________________

Yes, the Cards kicked ass in their usual inimical, erosive fashion, but the Lucky Birds are you today, my friends, not my 13 point winning, New York Giants imitating Louisville Cardinals.  Why you ask?

Oh!  How lucky you are to be able to catch the $HUI at the 200 day moving average!   It’s not often we get there:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m  going to grab some GDX and GDXJ, today as I think we’re close to at least a tradeable bottom.  We will likely have to be somewhat nimble, but I think this might be the nadir — especially if the dollar moves down into an intermediate cycle low.  ANV and BAA are my best individual bets for the risk takers.

For those among you who are adventurous… the cheap stuff on the silver side is really, well… cheap  !  SSRI is looking especially tasty here, for example, as is AG.  EXK already started taking off yesterday.  Of course SIL is there for those looking for “pool” instead of “pond.”   Note also, the rare-earths as well.  If the dollar drops, they will all benefit.

Have a great weekend, and go Cards (and Cats and Hoosiers, whoops! I win either way on that one!).

_____________________

 

Comments »

___________________________________

Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue

 

the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last

 

at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead

 

I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright

_____________________________

Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.

 

Comments »

__________________________

I know, I know…  I’ve claimed “I’m busy” many times to you but I will do so once again.  I am truly burning the candle at both ends, Breitbart-style, and it’s going to have to stop.  I may have to take a leave of absence until I can get some of these deals through the chute over the next couple of months.  Work is literally coming through the door at an unprecedented pace, and it’s beginning to get slightly out of hand.  I’m not sure if it’s Obama Panic or Demographic Destiny, but people who own quality companies are throwing their hands up and saying “get me out” like a pack of dachshunds in a Pringles cannery. It’s never been like this in my memory, and most of my career has taken place in the warm sun of a bull market.

But it’s not like a bull market selling environment, despite the hefty buyers interest out there.  The shareholders’ optimism is no longer there.  Instead of my having to fight clients into viewing business as a cycle and not a permanent slope to heaven, now I have to “sell, sell, sell!” like Cramer on airplane glue, because the end is near, and it’s awful to behold.

I’m not going to complain, truly as there are many many buyers with cash out there — also more than I’ve ever seen.  Until that pool attenuates my job is easier than it has been in the past, despite the macroeconomic conditions.   It’s even fun.  I just hope I can make it through to the finish on all of it….

___________________________________

But on the stock side, I’m munching a Prosperity Sandwich, while waiting to see if my $HUI resolves itself here.   So far, the silver precious has held up decently, even as the dollar has rebounded back above $79.  In the meantime, the $HUI stays in it’s channel (and will do so even below $500), and perhaps touches the lower edge again.  Remains to be seen.  I’m doing nothing, and I’ve still got 40% of my cash to throw at something, or maybe nothing.  It’s nice to have opportunities…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s keep our eyes open.  If the dollar cranks any higher, it could have ill effect on our miners.  Below $490 on the $HUI could be time to retract, and perhaps even edge.  Eyes front, and on the road.

Best to you all.

Comments »

_______________________

As I mentioned the other afternoon, it looks like it won’t be long now, for the dollar and the precious metal markets to once again take different tracks.  And that should mean good things for the miners, as evidenced in what appears to be an approaching turn in the $HUI Gold Bug Index.

Turns out this whole Greek fiasco is becoming something of a mud-stomp for our swarthy souvlaki-eating, Ouzo-swilling band of molotav cocktail pitchers, and it appears that the European Community might even be angling to kick the Greeks out of the Euro no matter what.  Hey, as crazy as it’s become in Greece, at least they don’t have Federal officials inspecting their kids’ lunchboxes for “nutrition violations,’ yet, eh? 

I say so be it, and let it be done.  Either way it’s apparant that Big Brother Bernank is not going to let some rock-throwing, Fiat-torching proto-Spartans ruin his very stable run into the 2012 elections (and yes, he’s running too, believe it).  So be prepared to be awash in liquidity here.  Drachmas?  Schmachmas! Take some digital dollars and shut up, already. 

Around 8 am this morning, currency traders tried to make the dollar go “pop!” but gold and silver are currently calling bullshit on all that.  Yes, these three can sometimes rise together like the greatly undervalued kings of the comedy stage, Larry, Moe & Curly (not really) in a Depression-era movie house, but more often than not, this alliance is proven false within a matter of days, if not hours.  As I type this, mean-spirited Moe (the US dollar) is taking a pratfall from it’s earlier spike over $79.60, and Larry Gold and Curly Silver (the fat, dumb one), are careening higher.

As I mentioned earlier, I will also be looking for a turn in the miners here.  My weekly chart shows us approaching the bottom of that channel I pointed out the other day:

 

And the daily chart shows an even more clear bottoming in the stochastics.  Note also we almost touched the bottom of this (admittedly loose) consolidation triangle yesterday as well.   

 

 Quite a few of my stocks popped in the last hour of yesterday’s trading (along with the whole market, of course), including my March Madness pick, AUY. 

I had thought that contest was starting this Friday, for some odd reason that seemed truly logical only in my own beleaguered head.  I think that launch would have been perfect, but in the meantime, I’m in a bit of a hole, so be sure to purchase as much AUY as possible here, and to short that hideous purveyor of ethically questionable time-share vacations, AWAY.  Thanks in advance, and…

My best to you all.

___________________________

 

 

 

 

 

Comments »

_______________________________ 

Please do not take my lack of attendance here as proof that I do not love you.  The truth is, I’ve never left you…

All through my wild days…

My mad existence.  

 I’ll keep my promise, if you keep your distance.

(and scene). 

PS — Anyone who watched WPIX-11 as a kid in Noo Yawk knows that song by heart, if only by dint of it was the only commercial that ever played weekday afternoons between the Brady Bunch and Star Trek.   Ah, teevee, my beloved babysitter!   That’s what’s wrong w. kids these days, btw.  Not enough teevee.

______________________

A quick repair to the dollar charts.  It seems as if old man dollar is trying to ruin everyone’s Mardis Gras by busting a move here, late Monday afternoon.  Problem is, he’s got nowhere to go.   Gold, silver, frankincense and myrhh have all sold down the last couple of days, just in time for the U.S. dollar to finally make it’s last hurrah, and look!  …

Nowhere to go:

 

 You want to fight City Hall run by the Bernank? You might as well try to fight Madonna with Whitney Houston’s Baftub.   Your arms are just too short.  Let’s see… $HUI is just about done cycling down, and the dollar’s got a date with $79.80 or so.  

As far as I’m concerned, you have your instructions.

Best to you all.

______________________

Comments »

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

__________________________

I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

_____________________________

 

Comments »