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Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

— Billy Shakes (Macbeth, Act 5; Scene 5)

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I think tomorrow will tell the tale, as I just don’t think this freaking Blackened Cross situation is going to last much longer.  It’s either going to break down and we’re done, or we’ll have liftoff here:

Again, I’m not getting very excited here.  Gold is hurting tonight, despite the dollar’s continuing south.   Silver has worked off the oversold condition, and it too looks like it might take a breather here.  If, however, we get a break through those price barriers above, then it’s “Party on, Garth!”

In the meantime, I have something more immediate:  a Monsieur Le Fly special — a Hunnit Dollar Roll stock, starring one of my old clients from the old days — JOYG, whom I love because it sells… what?  MINING MACHINERY!  What’s not to like?

Note: the above is a weekly chart, so this current move carries even more weight, given it’s rocketing off the 34-week line and through the 13-week EMA.   I’ll be balderdashed if we don’t get a 100-plus roll going forward.

Best to you all, my friends.

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The $HUI bounced back again today, but I’m not even going to bother posting the pic… I was only about nine points, and believe me, we’ve a way to go before we’re no longer in need of Deep Woods Off!  We’re still not at the 50-200 day EMA cross, but it remains imminent.  More tomorrow there…

No, tonight, I’m going to look at something completely different.   It was stock that that le Monsieur was touting earlier this year, for it’s tasty goodness (Brad)  and franchisable content.   Even though Bravo Brio Restaurant Group (BBRG on the Nazzy) are based in bland old Columbus Ohio, I think this group may be spicing things up over the last couple of days, as its made a nice breakout to all time highs:

You will note that the stock is quite a bit overbought at this juncture, and so I will hold off on grabbing some until a more opportune moment — likely coinciding with a return to that breakout line at about $23.20 or so.  If you see it returning to that level, do not visit one of BBRG’s restaurants that day, as it is likely I will be in their “celebrating” cowboy-style, with my six-guns a-twirling, bourbon whiskey (corkage fee applied) a-chugging, and surly dancing girls atop my lap.

Things could get ugly in the next few days.   Let’s make that our them for the summer, shall we?  Happy ciao’ing.

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Interesting that it took us only six days for $HUI to move back to support and re-test the lows of the other day.  Interesting as well that the miners held support despite the lower values of both underlying metals (Silver and Gold).

Let’s have a look at that chart again:

Let’s not quibble, here… we again stand on the edge of the knife.  Note how close we are to a 50-200-day EMA cross over. That would not be a good sign for anyone, and we are going to need a heck of a rally to pull those two nearing lovers apart again. RSI continues in our favor– if only moderately so — even as the slow stochastic is pointed firmly in a southerly direction.

I’m not going to vacillate here.  We should be ready to cut our positions to where we are comfortable with another 50 point southerly move in the $HUI. If we break support at $494-5 or so, then I think we will be headed that way.

All that said, today’s postive divergence action in the miners may indicate at least a short term bottoming in the downward action.  Our trusty negative ETF for silver — ZSL — has registerd three “overbought” days in a row on The PPT.  This is unprecedented in the history of The PPT, albeit a relatively short data set.  We also saw the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) show up on the Wall Street Journal’s Buying on Weakness charts, along with both GG and SLW — two very popular miners in gold and silver.  All of these indicate an appetite for miners that may be setting aside the current fluctuations in the underlying metal.

What’s apparent, however, is that we will know very soon what direction we are going in.   We cannot remain at the support level forever.  We shall either fail here, or make another attempt at the 200-day EMA.   The action from there will determine our more intermediate term prospects.

Keep an eye on the Dollar Index.  It looked sickly again today, and if it breaks down through that $75.20 support, we may have “game on” once again in the shiny metal sector.

God bless.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W773ZPJhcVw&feature=related 450 300]

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Flying around the Central Mitten today via large American Sedan, one cannot help but be astounded by the plethora of funnel clouds in so many seemingly peaceful rural burgs these days.  If Mother Nature cannot leave lie a town known for 361 days of Christmas (despite its Mary Shelley-esque name) and not one but two Wiener Schnitzel Emporiums, then I just don’t know what the world is coming to.  I tell you, if this road trip gets any more adventuresome, it may take me four days to hitch hike from Saginaw all the way home.

Things were no less tornadic in the precious metal miners markets today, with that rally off support finally coming through for us:

Even more mucho blasto than Baby $HUI, however, were my faithful Jacksonians, with SLW, EXK, ANV, PAAS, SSRI, EGO and even TCK up anywhere from 5% to 9% today.

And not to be overly boastful, but I thought it quite shiny that my final call of yesterday’s post — that laggard AG would catch up to it’s brethren in rapid fashion — came through like a dolorous Dakota Fanning in a crying scene, to the tune of almost 11% in cash gains.  Note the chart, and the accompanying caveat:

Note well my easily excitable Adderall dependents — one strong day does not a rally make.  As you can see above, many many of our Jacksonians are banging their heads on 20 and 50-day EMA’s.   I would not be surprised at all, therefore, to see a pullback from these levels, and perhaps one all the way back to the 500 level on the Baby $HUI.

Most likely we’ll see the most trouble at the old breakout line on the $HUI — at $519 give or take a smidge.   Be aware of your levels and do not get caught flat-footed.   In the meantime, silver still looks like the recovery drug, although traditionally hot money gold plays like ANV (up 8.83% today) are coming in close behind.

Be safe out there, and keep your helmets on.

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We are either going to bounce hard here, or we are going to be cast into a pit of molten lava, where blood and bone will be cooked to a fine carbon gristle with extra smoke.

And I’m talking about both the SPY and the PM’s here. Both experienced a Bollinger Band crash (violation of the lower Bollinger) and both should rebound here in the next week, at least to the midpoint. In the case of the Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) that probably means the 200-day EMA.

Here’s the $HUI weekly, which clearly illustrates the return to the October breakout. We break here, and we’ll be headed for that long term support line down in the 500 area first:

Now the daily, with the Bollinger Band illustrations:

Does that look like it’s done to you? Me neither, which tells me if we do get a bounce it’ll likely be later morning tomorrow.

Whatever the case, I believe that unless I see evidence of us getting back over that 200-day EMA (above), I will be bringing my core all the way down to 25%, which will be my bull market low point. You should already be at 50%, give or take, in your PM concentrations. This is simply the next step down in raising cash for the coming wave forward.

I don’t know what it means for the SPY, but I don’t expect there’s much left in that rope either, if the dollar continues to strengthen and the financials and commodities continue to get clipped.

On the brighter side, however, I will note that while things look bleak, copper prices have held up well. Our own miners were hurt by today’s rumor of a Marxist nationalization effort in Peru. Such rumors give me good reason to keep my mining holdings in NAFTA countries alone. We are not being paid to take nation-risk here people. Look to Canada, Nevada and Mexico for your long term core holdings.

Last, I say look to sentiment. The last time Fly and I were this conditionally apocaplyptic, the market took off in a blaze of glory. Hell, even Gary Savage is hiding in Switzerland right now. Be strong for me, my friends.

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Indeud, there is no doubt we stand on the edge of a knife.  Curious formations abound, and give sign.  Take heed…

And then there’s this from today:

And last… the full retrace of the original breakout in the $HUI, Gold Bug Index.  Curiouser and Curiouser:

All the daily charts point to a bounce… not so much this final weekly above, but the circumstances of support could hold here as well.   We have revisited the lows, as I’d feared we should, in order to better stabilize this rebound.   Tomorrow should be interesting.   Be well.

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