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It’s kind of an odd feeling, really. Seeing that I’ve been ranting about the U.S. unfunded liability overhang and its one logical solution, you’d think I’d be out there wagging my finger in peoples’ faces and doing a touchdown dance as our debt is (symbolically and politically, I know) downgraded from “pristine” once again, and the rout of the U.S. dollar is on in earnest.

Instead of taking great joy in $1,700+ gold and $40+ silver I’m seeing tonight, and preparing myself to buy others’ margin calls tomorrow morning, I’m sitting here more than a little bit numb.   This is still my country after all, and it’s still a punch in the gut to see it caught in a debt trap of its own construction.   Yeah, we saw it coming, and that’s why we’ve been building a fortress of gold and silver to shelter us.

But will it be enough?

I honestly don’t know.   For all I know, my miners will get waxed along with the rest of the market (if in fact the market doesn’t just head fake completely tomorrow).   My sturdy ETF’s might malfunction, my options might turn to gruel and even my physical might be tough to transfer if the President decides to go “Full Metal Franklin Delano” on us.    Let’s face it folks, it’s all fine and good to prepare financially, but we are entering into unchartered waters here, and it’s not like we’ve got Horatio Nelson at the wheel, here.

I really didn’t think we’d arrive at this hour this quickly — in 2011.  However, the combination of torpid growth and high unemployment have hit tax collections to such a degree that the current rates of spending have blown a hole in our debt capacity well before we expected in the mid 2000-teens.  There will be painful choices ahead that will make this summer’s kabuki theater play look like the first round of Let’s Make a Deal in comparison.

I don’t doubt they will include tax increases, and likely across the whole bulk of the citizenry.   There are just not enough wealthy people with taxable income around to bring us to any sort of solvency — even with massive cuts to the Federal budget.  No, we’re going to have to go back to the old ways — where everyone contributes at some level, and there are no more free-riders.  If you try to get this done on the back of “him behind that tree,” you will inspire nothing but enmity in the capital providers, which will in turn only drive our economy to darker depths.

I am hoping this shot across our bough will be enough to drive our politicians to a serious assessment of our national dent — both on and off-balance sheet.  If instead this opportunity is squanderd and the pols decide it’s more electorally profitable to scare old people into believing they’ll be left high and dry at the prospect of any reform, God help us all.

In an event, we should have a good day in the gold sector tomorrow.  I will be looking very closely at the action not only on the physical metals themselves (gold, silver, platinum), but also at the $HUI to keep an eye on the miners, and on AUY in particular.  It seemed to take a much lighter hit last week on the pullback, and that may mean it’s getting ready to really take off after that long consolidation.

Good luck to us all.

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Shockingly, the world did not end today (yesterday), which put a huge crimp on my “buy the dip” strategy on the global gold scale.  This was especially true for DGP, which I finally got tired of waiting for and glommed at the $50.75 mark, in “first position” size.

Even more shocking, it seems everyone and his brother decided to become PM bloggers overnight.  No matter, my bandwagon is large and full of goose down cushions.   But certain friends are going to have to become less “jumpy” in their inclinations to ride this next wave of the bull.  There’s lot’s of meat on this bone, and we are early still.  Hastiness will not do.

Take for example the “gift” I left at your doorstep the other day?  Remember AXU, and how I illustrated that it would pull back to the $7.70 marque, where it should then be SHOMPED with all due severity and muscle strain?   Well… let’s see what happened in the space of just three or so days:

Here me now and listen to me latah (sic):  AXU is going back to it’s all time highs, and MOOOOAH! How do I know this?  Because the relative strength of gold is across the board scary right now.  And the miners will generally fall into line with a rising gold price, and the miners are well undervalued in regard to a POG that is floating near all time highs as of today’s session.

Look at this $HUI  Goldbug Miner’s Index… better yet, look how MUCH room it has to make up for:

And guess what?  Baby $HUI is going to new all time highs as well!

And just so I can show you that I have some versatility in breaking away from all of these nascent gold bloggers, let me show you another stock I’ve been eyeing for quite some time now, and which I believe is set for a long term up move here.  Data Security anyone: VDSI?

I’ve liked this one a lot in the past (ea, and it looks like it’s ready to resume running here, real soon.   Best to you all.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184&feature=related 450 300]

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Let’s face it, all the rocket ships I gave you over the last couple of days are now as egregiously overbought as Mrs. Fly’s Visa Card after a vacation in Paris.  I mean, that shit is panting.  It’s needs a new magnetic strip and make this next one indestructible titanium, please.

But enough japes about our wives spending habits.  What the hell is money good for anyway if you are not going to lay it out for your wife and children to dance through, mazurka-style?   And I’m here to talk about money and opportunity.

Those of you who were too timorous to take advantage of the earlier week’s outstanding pin action may be able to take a second spin at the wheel here in the very near future.  Almost everything is overbought on my RSI charts (as you will see) and even the $HUI is looking tired after some two weeks of glorious struggle with its support line.    You know about the Jacksonians — SLW, ANV, EXK, GDX, RGLD, etc., etc., and they should offer nice opportunities in the coming days as well.

But tonight’s study is going to be some noobs for the Noob community.  I have recently put some money into AXU (along w. le Monsieur), but I have not yet dabbled in AUQ or BRD.   I believe that may change in the next few days.   Here are my three charts, which detail my entry points. I begin with AXU:

And then AUQ:

And maybe my favorite of the three,  for the punning eventualities alone, “the BiRD” — BRD:

In the next week or so, I believe everyone will have heard, that the Bird is a word.

Best to you all.

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First, let me tell you that I am a happy and contented boy this evening. You know this PM game.  Heck, even Le Fly asks me at times how I deal with the convulsions of this lightly traded, lightly regarded sector.  Sometimes it’s not very easy, as you all know.

But the irony remains.   Despite the tremendous, gut-wrenching, teeth swallowing, soul-crushing volatility of this sector, it’s the only one to be in a bull phase over the last ten years.   True, we got a serious “blip” when the whole market folded in late 2008, but that was truly a liquidity-driven event,  separate from the fundamentals of the space.  What’s more, that down-draft was the trading opportunity of a lifetime.  I still own a good portion of the SLW I picked up under $3.00, and that was just one of the gems I found abandoned on the ground in January-February 2009.  You know the story of the Jacksonians from May of that year, when I first started blogging.   Those positions are up hundreds of percent, and I had bought them months before.

Enough idle boasting about the past.   We’re talking about good feelings today, but we’ve endured scars together too.   We’ve undergone a dreadful PM pullback, one that cost me over 15% of my portfolio value, even with cash-outs.  But I’ve been waiting, very patiently, because I had no doubt this bull was not over by any means.  And today I think we can say that at least in the near term, “the coast is clear” for further miner purchasing.   And I plan to make up for lost time as well.

First, let’s see the good news on our friend Baby $HUI:

Given that many of my “in-house” miners– Jacksonians and high flyers like EXK and AG have rocketed up on an RSI basis in the past few days, I think it may not be the best time to buy tomorrow.  This is true as well of my PM Stock of the Decade— XG,  or Extorre Gold Mines. which was spun off from parent company Exeter Resources (XRA)  at the barely substantial price of $2. Yes, $2, back in late March of 2010.   Look at this beautiful company today, a scant 16 months later…

Look at the charts of the strongest Jacksonians and you will not even see the equal of XG.  It was the one precious metal stock in my entire portfolio that did not see a pullback of any substance over the last three months.   That in itself is significant, I believe.

In the meantime, do not be a horse’s ass and buy this tomorrow.  Clearly, it’s overbought, probably because it never got oversold, like it’s poor compadres.   I have indicated above the place where I’d like to add.  And yes, I already have a shitte tonne, but there’s always room for pie, right?

Most stuff is overbought here, but on the radar for tomorrow are some small jumpers — MGH, BRD, AUQ, NXG, CGU, AZK. I also added to my GPL and AXU hordes today.

Best to you all.

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Otto’s Family Picture

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Today was a significant day for the silver miners. With the death of Prince Otto, the word was sent by carrier pigeon to Mr. Bilderberg and the Illuminati that they could once again indulge in the precious metal trade.  Obviously they took that word to heart, especially in the silver section, with the more sedate Jacksonians like SLW and PAAS up 6.26% and 3.20% respectively, and the silver miner ETF– ticker symbol SIL— up 4.29%.

Even more stunning were the pocket rockets.  Of course the double raw silver ETF, AGQ, was up almost 10%, but some of the small miners did even better. My second largest silver holding  EXK, was up almost 12%, while AG and MVG were both up over 8% each.   Even ANV, the  mercurial Jacksonian gold stock, got in the groove, with a move of over 6.72%.

Even more promising was the chart damage today’s moves did on the silver bears.  AG is the cleanest example:

EXK had a similar breakout today:

I love how these rockets are leading us up like they usually do.  I am not, however “all in,” yet, as the $HUI continues to bedevil me by refusing to resolve itself.   The 50-day still remains a micro-hair above the 200-day EMA and they are flattening to a needle point.

My one consolation is that we’ve finally closed above both key EMA’s at $528.42.  That’s noteworthy, since we haven’t been above either one since early June.  Stay tuned tomorrow for some follow through.  I may even expend some cash.   I’m looking at EGO and CDE to continue moving higher tomorrow and to the end of the week.   My top pick for tomorrow, however, is GPL.

Tally ho!

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Indeuuuuuud!
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The last of the Hapsburg Empire has taken his leave.  Harbor no belief that the positive action on gold and silver today is unrelated.  As ancient and corrupt medieval empires crumble into the sea, the strongest of civilization’s institutions remain standing, anchoring our economic and social order.

Note Prince Otto’s obituary’s first lines…

Otto von Habsburg, who has died aged 98, bore the oldest and most eminent dynastic name in European history and could, according to genealogists, trace his ancestry back to the sixth century. The pretender to the defunct thrones of Austria, Hungary, Croatia and Bohemia (now part of the Czech Republic), he pursued a democratic postwar career as a member of the European parliament and a fervent advocate of European union.

A fervant advocate of European Union?  Imagine a thwarted emperor advocating that?  One wonders what Otto’s countrymen, Hayek and Von Mises would have thought of all that?

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All of the Jacksonians and other gold and silver dreams are celebrating the Fourth Of July, seemingly independent now of the dollar’s flux, up over an average of 3%.   Favored Jacksonian’s SLW, ANV and EGO are all up over 4% as of this writing, and EXK is up over 9%.  Still, our friend the $HUI is having troubles breaking that near-term barrier at around $528, so we are not yet out of the Austrian woods, so to speak.

More on that tonight.

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